James Tobin came to Yale in 1950 at the rank of associate professor following his three years as a Junior Fellow of Harvard’s Society of Fellows that included a research stay at Richard Stone’s Department of Applied Economics in Cambridge. His Yale graduate course on “Aggregative Theory” covered contemporary Keynesian macroeconomics at mid-century.
This picture in his navy uniform is dated December 1945 according to the Yale archives.
_______________________________
Economics 110: 1951-52
1. Introduction to Model-building. Equilibrium Systems and their Stability
T. C. Schelling, National Income Behavior, Chs. 2, 3, 4 (pp 41-2), 5, 12.
R. G. D. Allen, Mathematical Analysis for Economists, Sections 2.9, 11.6, 11.7.
P. A. Samuelson, Foundations of Economic Analysis, Chs. I, II, and pp. 257-260.
Schelling, pp. 42-52.
2. The Keynesian and Classical Aggregative Models
J. R. Hicks, “Mr. Keynes and the Classics; a Suggested Interpretation”, Econometrica, V, 1937, p. 147.
R. F. Harrod, “Keynes and Traditional Theory” Econometrica, V, 1937 (reprinted, in The New Economics, p. 591.)
F. Modigliani, “Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money” Econometrica, XII, 1944.
O. Lange, “The Rate of Interest and the Optimum Propensity to Consume” Economica, 1938 (reprinted in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, p. 169.
L. R. Klein, The Keynesian Revolution, Ch. III.
J. E. Meade, “A Simplified Model of Keynes’ System”, Review of Economic Studies, February 1937 (reprinted in The New Economics, p. 606)
Samuelson, Foundations, pp. 276-283.
W. Leontief, “The Fundamental Assumption of Keynes’ ‘General Theory’” Quarterly Journal of Economics, LI, 1936, p. 192.
W. Leontief, “Postulates: Keynes’ General Theory and the Classicists,” The New Economics, p. 232.
L. R. Klein, The Keynesian Revolution, 199-206.
J. Marschak, Income, Employment, and the Price Level, Lectures 18, 19, 20, Supplementary Lectures II, III.
3. The Consumption Function
a. Asset Holdings and the “Pigou Effect”
A. C. Pigou, “The Classical Stationary State”, EJ, 1943, 343-351.
M. Kalecki, “Professor Pigou on ‘The Classical Stationary State’—A Comment”, EJ 1944, 131-2.
Pigou, “Economic Progress in a Stable Environment”, E, 1947, 180-90.
Don Patinkin, “Price Flexibility and Full Employment”, AER 1948, 543-64 and Comment by H. Stein and Reply by Patinkin, AER 1949, 725-8.
Klein, 206-213
[Handwritten addition:] G. Ackley, “The Wealth-Saving Relationship”, JPE 1951, 154-161.
b. Problems of Aggregation
Klein, 192-196.
Staehle, “Short-period Variations in the Distribution of Incomes,” REStat 1937, 133-143, and 1939, 129-30.
Marschak, “Personal and Collective Budget Functions” REStat 1939, 161-70.
T. Haavelmo, “Family Expenditures and the Marginal Propensity to Consume”, Ec 1947, 335-341.
J. S. Duesenberry, Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior, Chapters III, IV.
H. Lubell, “Effects of Income Redistribution on Consumers’ Expenditures” AER 1947, 157-170 and 930-1.
D. Brady and R. Friedman, “Savings and the Income Distribution”, Studies in Income and Wealth, X, 247-265.
c. The “secular” and “cyclical” functions
A. H. Hansen, Economic Policy and Full Employment, Ch. XIV.
A. H. Hansen, “A Note on the Secular Consumption Function” AER 1950, 662-4.
F. Modigliani, “Fluctuations in the Saving-Income Ratio” Studies in Income and Wealth, XI, 371-443.
J. S. Duesenberry, op. cit., Chapters III, IV, V.
L. Metzler, “Three Lags in the Circular Flow of Income”, in Income, Employment, and Public Policy (in honor of Hansen), 11-32.
R. P. Mack, “The Direction of Change in Income and the Consumption Function”, REStat, 1948, 239-258.
4. Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest
T. Wilson, Fluctuations in Income and Employment, Chapters I, II.
D. H. Robertson, Essays in Monetary Theory, Ch. I.
D. H. Robertson, “Some Notes on the Theory of Interest” in Money, Trade, and Economic Growth (in honor of J. H. Williams) 193-209.
A. H. Hansen, Monetary Theory and Fiscal Policy, Chapters 3, 4.
W. Fellner, Monetary Policies and Full Employment, Chapters V, VI.
N. Kaldor, “Speculation and Economic Stability” RES Oct. 1939, 1-27.
M. Kalecki, “The Short-Term and the Long-term Rate of Interest” Studies in Economic Dynamics, 32-46.
J. R. Hicks, Value and Capital, Chapters XI, XII, XIII.
P. A. Samuelson, Foundations, 122-4.
T. Scitovsky, “A Study of Interest and Capital” E 1940, 293-317.
A. Smithies, “Process Analysis and Equilibrium Analysis” EC 1942, 26-38.
[Handwritten addition:] L. Metzler, “Wealth, Saving, and the Rate of Interest”, JPE 1951, 93-113.
5. The Investment Function
Klein, 196-199.
Wilson, op. cit., Chapters V, VI, VII.
N. Kaldor, “A Model of the Trade Cycle” EJ 1940, 78-92.
M. Kalecki, “A New Approach to the Problem of Business Cycles” RES, Vol. XVI, 1949-50, 57-64.
A. P. Lerner, The Economics of Control, Chapter 25.
R. M. Goodwin, “Econometrics in Business-Cycle Analysis” in Hansen, Business Cycles and National Income, 442-449 (rest of chapter will be assigned later)
M. Kalecki, “The Principle of Increasing Risk”, Essays in the Theory of Economic Fluctuations, 95-106.
H. D. Henderson, “The Significance of the Rate of Interest” OEP #1, October 1938, 1-13.
J. Meade and P. W. S. Andrews, “Summary of Replies to Questions on the Effects of Interest Rates” OEP #1, October 1938, 14-31.
R. S. Sayers, “Business Men and the Terms of Borrowing” OEP #3, Feb. 1940, 23-31.
P.W. S. Andrews, “A Further Inquiry into the Effects of Rates of Interest”, OEP #3, Feb. 1940, 32-73.
K. Arrow, “Alternative Approaches to the Theory of choice in Risk-taking Situations” EC October 1951.
End of First Term
Abbreviations:
AER: American Economic Review
EJ: Economic Journal
E: Economica
EC: Econometrica
QJE: Quarterly Journal of Economics
JPE: Journal of Political Economy
OEP: Oxford Economic Papers
RES: Review of Economic Studies
REStat: Review of Economic(s and) Statistics
_______________________________
Economics 110
Reading List for Second Term: Dynamic Aggregative Theory
1. The Meaning of “Dynamics”
Samuelson, “Dynamic Process Analysis,” in Survey of Contemporary Economics, 352-355, 374-376.
Frisch, “On the Notion of Equilibrium and Disequilibrium,” Review of Economic Studies, 1935-36, 100-106.
Samuelson, Foundations of Economic Analysis, 311-320, 350-355.
Harrod, Towards a Dynamic Economics, 1-19.
[Handwritten marginal comment: Baumol? Schelling?]
2. The Mathematics of Dynamics
Samuelson, “Dynamic Process Analysis,” 356-367, 377-387.
Tinbergen, Business Cycles in the U.S.A. 1919-1932, 15-18, 140-147.
Suggested for further study:
Allen, Mathematical Analysis for Economists, Chapter XVI.
Samuelson, Foundations, Appendix B.
[Handwritten addition:] Schelling, Appendix.
3. The Nature and Logic of Dynamic Business Cycle Theory
Tinbergen, “Econometric Business Cycle Research”, in Readings in Business Cycle Theory.
Samuelson, Foundations, 335-342.
Frisch, “Propagation Problems and Impulse Problems in Dynamic Economics”, Economic Essays in Honour of Gustav Cassel, 171-206.
Tinbergen, “Annual Survey: Quantitative Business Cycle Theory”, Econometrica, 1935, 241-308.
Schumpeter, Business Cycles, 179-192, 533-535.
4. The Short-run Stability of Aggregative Models
Samuelson, Foundations, 257-269, 276-283.
Kaldor, “A Model of the Trade Cycle,” Economic Journal, 1940, 78-92.
Smithies, “Process Analysis and Equilibrium Analysis,” Econometrica, 1942, 26-38.
Metzler, “Three Lags in the Circular Flow of Income,” in Income, Employment, and Public Policy (Essays in Honor of Alvin H. Hansen).
Metzler, “The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1941, 113-129.
5. Capital Accumulation and Growth
Domar, “Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment,” Econometrica, 1946, 137-148.
Domar, “Expansion and Employment,” American Economic Review, 1947, 42-55.
Harrod, “An Essay in Dynamic Theory”, Economic Journal 1939, 14-33.
Fellner, Monetary Policies and Full Employment, Chapter II.
Schelling, “Capital Growth and Equilibrium,” American Economic Review, 1947, 864-876.
Alexander, “The Accelerator as a Generator of Steady Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1949, 174-197.
6. Capital Accumulation and Cycles
Samuelson, “Interaction between the Multiplier Analysis and the Principle of Acceleration,” in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, 261-269.
Kalecki, Essays in the Theory of Economic Fluctuations, 116-149.
(Suggested: Kalecki, “A Macrodynamic Theory of Business Cycles,” Econometrica, 1935, 327-344.)
Hicks, The Trade Cycle.
Leontief, “Recent Developments in the Study of Interindustrial Relationships, American Economic Review (Proceedings), Mar. 1949, 211-225.
Georgescu-Roegen, “Relaxation Phenomena in Linear Dynamic Models,” in Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, (Cowles Commission Monograph 13).
7. The Dynamic Theory of Inflation
Keynes, How to Pay for the War, 57-74.
Koopmans, “The Dynamics of Inflation,” Review of Economic Statistics, 1942, 53-65.
Smithies, “The Behavior of Money National Income under Inflationary Conditions”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1942-43, 113-128.
Duesenberry, “The Mechanics of Inflation,” Review of Economics of Statistics, Mar. 1950, 144-149.
Holzmann, “Income Determination in Open Inflation,” Review of Economics & Statistics, Mar. 1950, 150-158.
Source: Yale University Library, Manuscripts and Archives. James Tobin Papers, Box 18, Folder “Ec 103 [sic]” and “Ec 110, 1951-52].
Image Source: Yale University Manuscripts & Archives. Digital Images Database. “James Tobin in war uniform (1945-December)”.