Business Cycles and Economic Forecasting was a two semester graduate course at Harvard. The fall term (Economics 245a) was taught by Joseph Schumpeter and the spring term (Economics 245b) was jointly taught by Assistant Professor Richard Goodwin and Professor Gottfried Haberler. This posting includes a transcription of a carbon copy of the final exam questions for Schumpeter’s course along with his course reading list for the fall term of 1948. An undated note to the veteran’s office that identifies books that veterans be reimbursed for purchasing is included below.
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1948-49
Economics 245a
[Professor Joseph Schumpeter]
Fall Term
Work in this course will concentrate on a number of selected topics in business-cycle analysis and forecasting rather than aim at covering the entire field systematically. As much opportunity as possible will be given for discussion of, and essays on, individual problems. Some knowledge of advanced theory and advanced statistics is necessary in order to reap the full benefit from this course: providual [sic, individual] needs will be taken care of in consultation.
I.
a. Students are expected to be, or to make themselves, familiar with the two following standard works:
Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, 1941.
Pigou, Industrial Fluctuations, 1929.
b. There are a number of useful textbooks that less advanced students may usefully consult for survey purposes: E. C. Bratt, Business Cycles and Forecasting, 3rd ed., 1948, is recommended (not “assigned”).
c. Attention is called to Readings in Business-Cycle Theory (Vol. II of the Blakiston Series of Republished Articles on Economics, 1944. See especially Nos. 2, 4, 10, 12, 14, 21 and Bibliography by H. M. Somers).
William Fellner, Employment Theory and Business Cycles in A Survey of Contemporary Economics (ed. H. S. Ellis, Blakiston, 1948)
d. Perusal of The Federal Reserve Board’s Chart Books I and II is strongly recommended, and so is the study of
e. E. Frickey, Economic Fluctuations in the United States (Harvard Economic Studies, 73) which should be supplemented by
E. Frickey, Production in the United States, 1860-1914 (Harvard Economic Studies, 82)
[f. This time, the program of the course does not include Business Cycles (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946). Owing to its importance, the book is nevertheless mentioned here for the benefit of students who propose to specialize in business cycles.]
II. Further suggestions with reference to topics that will be dealt with in the course.
a. Books:
J. G. Stigler, Trends in Output and Employment (N. B. E. R., 1947)
J. M. Clark, Strategic Factors in Business Cycles, 193
A. H. Hansen, Economic Policy and Full Employment, 1947
A. H. Hansen, Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle, 1941.
b. Articles:
(1) S. H. Slichter, The Period 1919-36 in its Significance for Business-Cycle Theory, Review of Economic Statistics, 1937.
H. L. Beales, The Great Depression, Economic History Review, October, 1934.
(2) M. Kalecki, A Theory of the Business Cycle, Review of Economic Studies, February, 1937.
L. A. Metzler, Business Cycles and the Modern Theory of Employment, American Economic Review, June, 1946.
N. Kaldor, A Model of the Trade Cycle, Economic Journal, March, 1940.
(3) G. Haberler, Some Reflections on the Present Situation of Business-Cycle Theory, Review of Economic Statistics, 1936.
Hansen, Boddy, and Langum, Recent Trends in Business-Cycle Literature, Review of Economic Statistics, 1936.
H. S. Ellis, Notes on Recent Business-Cycle Literature, Review of Economic Statistics, 1938.
Jacob Marschak, A Cross Section Of Business-Cycle Discussion, American Economic Review, June, 1945.
J. Tinbergen, Critical Remarks on Some Business-Cycle Theories, Econometrica, April, 1942
T. Koopmans, The Logic of Econometric Business-Cycle Research, Journal of Political Economy, 1941.
(4) J. Einarsen, Reinvestment Cycles, Review of Economic Statistics, 1938.
W. Isard, A Neglected Cycle: The Transport-Building Cycle, Review of Economic Statistics, 1942.
O. Morgenstern, On the International Spread of Business Cycles, Journal of Political Economy, 1943.
Irving Fisher, The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions, Econometrica, 1933.
Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003 (HUC 8522.2.1), Box 4, Folder “Economics, 1948-1949 (2 of 2)”.
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[Final Examination]
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Economics 245 A
One question may be omitted. Arrange your answers in the order of the questions.
- Describe the various underconsumption theories of depressions and discuss their explanatory value.
- Explain the mechanism of inventory cycles and state your opinion about the importance of the phenomenon.
- Prolonged periods of prosperity and depression have been traced to expansions and contractions in gold productions. Analyze the action of increases or decreases in gold stocks upon the economic process of the periods in which they occurred and show how they could, or could not, have produced the cycles or sequences of cycles attributed to them.
- Examine the validity of harvest theories of business cycles.
- Accepting, for the sake of argument, the innovation theory of cycles, how would you expect money wages and real wages to behave in the course of the cyclical phases?
Final, January 1949
Source: Harvard University Archives. Joseph Schumpeter Papers (HUG(FP)-4.62). Lecture Notes Box 2, Folder “Business Cycle Lecture notes Fall 1948”.
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To the Veteran’s Office, with apologies for delay: [undated]
Note: Economics 203 and 245 are advanced courses in which no textbooks are assigned, and the assignments of other books are of the character of advice rather than of strict requirement. However, I mention below books which I do advise students to buy. Most of them are required in other courses.
I. For Economics 203
J. R. Hicks, Value and Distribution [sic, “Capital”], Oxford Press, New edition just out.
A. Marshall, Principles, Macmillan, any edition from 4th to 8th.
Lord Keynes, General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt Brace, 1st edition, 1936.
E. H. Chamberlin, Theory of Monopolistic Competition, Harvard Press, last edition.
Irving Fisher, Theory of Interest, MacMillan, 1930
K. Wicksell, Lectures Vol. I, Routledge, 19334 (if available)
II. For Economics 245
Alvin Hansen, Economic Policy and Full Employment, McGraw-Hill
Edwin Frickey: a) Fluctuations, b) Production, both Harvard Press
Burns and Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1819 Broadway, New York 23, N.Y.
Bratt, Business Cycles, 3rd edition, 1948, (Irwin).
[handwritten addition:] Reading in Bus. Cycles. Blakiston.
Source: Harvard University Archives. Joseph Schumpeter Papers (HUG(FP)-4.62). Lecture Notes Box 2, Folder “Misc course notes 1943-48 (found in Littauer M-5)”.
Image Source: Harvard Album, 1947.