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AEA Economists History of Economics Johns Hopkins

Johns Hopkins. Essay on Political Economy in America. Ely, 1887

 

NORTH AMERICAN REVIEW.
FEBRUARY, 1887.

POLITICAL ECONOMY IN AMERICA.
by RICHARD T. ELY

At a meeting of political economists held at Saratoga in the month of September, 1885, in order to form an economic society — finally called the American Economic Association — Professor Alexander Johnston, of Princeton College, defined the purposes of the contemplated organization, as understood by him, in these words:

“This is an effort to stop the formation of any ‘crust’ on the development of economics, to assert the economic right of attempts to develop in every direction, unhampered by any accusation of heterodoxy, with the assurance that unlimited freedom of individual attempt to develop will bring about the truest, most natural, and healthiest development.”

Other ideas were brought out in the interesting discussion about the aims which should animate a body of American economists at the present time, and valuable suggestions were derived from men like Hon. Andrew D. White; Rev. Dr. Washington Gladden; Professor Henry C. Adams, of Michigan University; Professor E. J. James, of the University of Pennsylvania; Dr. Herbert B. Adams, of the Johns Hopkins University; Dr. Edwin R. A. Seligman, of Columbia College; Professor Andrews, of Brown University; and President Charles Kendall Adams, of Cornell University.

There can be no doubt, however, that all present agreed with Professor Johnston, and it is equally certain that he struck the key-note of future progress in economics.

But what did the undertaking signify? What did it mean to remove the “crust” already formed on the development of economics and to prevent its formation in the future? It is necessary for us to get a clear idea of this, if we would understand the past history and present condition of economic science in America.

The word “heterodoxy” uttered by Professor Johnston is one which throws a whole flood of light on the situation. The utterly unscientific conceptions, orthodoxy and heterodoxy, had crept into political economy; and men had with their aid attempted to check every advance in the science with a strong hand. What was orthodox? What was heterodox? Certain Englishmen, Ricardo, Malthus, Mill, Senior, successors of Adam Smith, had developed an à priori political economy which was well-pleasing to influential social elements. This was still further purified by later successors until the strong and mighty could find in it nothing to terrify “or make afraid,” nothing to disturb their calm repose. This at last became the political economy of the most conservative portion of the press, and as such gave us, to use the words of Professor Gustav Cohn, not a description of actual life, but at best a picture of the life of men in society such as one might expect to find in the “Dream of the Millionaire.” It was a Utopia as dangerous as it was pleasing. Imported to this country, it acquired a strength in certain educated circles — particularly in the North and East — to which it could scarcely aspire, even in England. It was always ready with its little tests of orthodoxy to mete out praise or condemnation, to accord honor or shame. Acceptance of its creed was often a condition of academic preferment. A small clique of men, not without newspaper influence, constituted themselves its special guardians and, still maintaining that position, even now attempt to exercise a sort of terrorism over the intellect of the country. Any deviation from the straight and narrow path laid down by them was deeply damned. Was there not, indeed, that never-failing refuge of incompetence and malignity, the epithet “socialism,” ready to hurl at all offenders?

Manifestly, the first need of the hour was to break this “crust,” and this was a worthy object for the American Economic Association. “Orthodox” and “heterodox” must be as completely driven out of economic discussion as out of biology and mineralogy. Those who use these phrases must necessarily look back to the past to discover the belief of others, whereas science should ever keep its glance directed to the future and press on to the discovery of new truth.

This determination “to assert the right of attempts to develop in every direction, unhampered by any accusation of heterodoxy,” is of particular importance in political economy, because, in the nature of things, economists worthy of the name always have been, and always will be, in opposition to current opinion. What is an economist? An economist is a man who studies the economic life of men as members of society. Now, if the science of economics is not a humbug, he must know more about industrial society than others, and that is simply saying, in other words, that he holds opinions not generally received. The true economist is a guide who always keeps in advance, who marks out new paths of social progress. This explains why the “heterodox” economist of one age becomes the “orthodox” economist of a succeeding one. Social development has gone on in the direction in which he foresaw it must move. An American writer [Daniel Raymond, Thoughts on Political Economy] in 1820, for example, speaks of the “gross heresies” of Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations,” and even this great “Father” of English political economy did not escape the reproach of socialism. Could that progressive, far-seeing man know that his name was now used to retard the advance of his favorite study, he surely could not rest easy in his grave!

All articles on political economy in America written before 1880 are chiefly concerned with the question: Why have Americans done comparatively nothing to advance the science of industrial society? This is the nature of Professor Dunbar’s article on “Political Economy in the United States from 1776 to 1876,” which appeared in the NORTH AMERICAN REVIEW in the latter year; it is also the nature of T. E. Cliffe Leslie’s article on “Political Economy in the United States,” which appeared in the Fortnightly Review, in 1880. The main thought brought out is the preponderating importance attached to the pursuit of wealth rather than to an inquiry as to its philosophy in this new country. The absence of obviously pressing economic questions is also dwelt upon by both writers. All this is true. The two chief causes of research in economics are large financial questions, and wide-spread dissatisfaction among the masses with existing social arrangements, coupled with a determination to change these radically. Our late civil war brought us one of these two chief causes of economic study; events of the past ten years have brought us the other. Thus has a mighty impulse been given to the development of political economy. But there is another aspect of the situation — not unrelated to what has already been said about economic orthodoxy — which deserves mention. The chairs of political economy in the United States have in the past been filled, to large extent, by men who were not appointed, like professors of chemistry, as searchers after truth, but as advocates — chiefly of free trade or protection as the case might be. This has been sufficiently understood, and it has acted injuriously in several ways. It has kept the best men out of the academic career, and it has repressed aspirations looking in the direction of new scientific explorations. Finally, it has reduced the influence of political economists to a minimum. Business men have despised them, while their power to guide and direct the thought of the laboring classes has been less than nothing. It has been so generally felt that professors of political economy in America were mere advocates of existing institutions, that the masses have turned away from them in angry impatience, and have been prejudiced even against the important and unassailable doctrines which they did teach. Thus has the task been rendered more difficult for those truly scientific men who with the impartiality of all science, tell the plain truth to all classes and would thus benefit all alike  — for a lie is of no permanent benefit to any one! And what about the politicians? Well, every one knows they have given themselves little concern about political economy, and the political economists often censure them severely on this account. While the politicians doubtless deserve it, there is another side to the case, brought out by my good friend Professor Jesse Macy in those felicitous words: “A political science which does not at least honestly seek to give direction to actual politics is an unmitigated nuisance. Colleges and universities have in the past been treated with contempt by practical politicians simply because their work has been contemptible. Politicians are the last men in the world to treat with contempt a respectable and efficient political power and influence.”

The present time is one in which the evolution of society is proceeding with more than its usual rapidity, and it is evident that we need a positive constructive political economy, and this requirement the old political economy cannot meet. Let the reader consider for a moment the age in which its great masters, Quesnay, Turgot, and Adam Smith, lived. It was the latter half of the eighteenth century, when the progress of industry was retarded by a multitude of old institutions, good in their day, doubtless, but then antiquated. The cry of men who understood their time was, “Remove the barriers! clear the way for new social forms!” The work which the great economists advocated during that period was very properly negative and destructive. It ought not then to surprise us that when we go to our old text books of political economy to seek advice in reference to practical measures, the one chief lesson which we learn is “DON’T.” Manifestly, the call of our age is DO.

A new movement in economics was then inevitable, and it has already come. Its precise beginning cannot, perhaps, be ascertained, but the writings of the distinguished head of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, General Francis A. Walker, first made it a clearly recognized accomplished fact in America. Probably, his works have inspired more of the American economists under thirty-five-possibly under forty-than those of any other man. He sowed seed which is now springing up and bearing fruit in all parts of our land. The movement was furthered by the establishment of new chairs of political economy in American colleges and universities, which was due to the wonderful impulse given to the study by the undeniable existence of those two classes of economic phenomena to which reference has already been made; namely, large financial problems and pressing social questions. Before 1876 one might have counted on one’s fingers the institutions where any serious instruction in political economy was given, whereas provision is now made for its study in every one of the more prominent colleges of the country; and although it is still inadequate in most cases, this is a remarkable advance. There are now a few colleges with two or three instructors, even, and it is not foolish to hope that in a not remote future we shall have as completely developed departments of political economy as we now have of physics and chemistry in our best universities.

Another good sign is the growing faith, both within and without our institutions of learning, in truth. People value the searcher for truth more than formerly, the mere advocate less. It is a significant fact that the youngest of the great American universities, the Johns Hopkins, founded in 1876, took for its motto, “Veritas vos liberabit.” [“Truth will set you free”] Another equally significant fact is this: The Johns Hopkins University assumed a non-partisan attitude in natural science. Its biological laboratory was instituted solely for the search of truth, regardless of consequences. Darwinian and anti-Darwinian doctrines, as such, could not be considered. Some good people were prejudiced against the University at the start on this account, and looked with much trepidation upon its teachings; but in ten years this has for a large part disappeared, and no college has warmer, more devoted friends among the clergy. This means faith in truth and a conscious recognition of the fact that one truth can not clash with another. One other illustration of this all-important point must follow, if the reader will pardon a personal allusion. When the writer’s name was brought forward for the position of teacher of political economy in the Johns Hopkins University five years ago, the authorities of the institution, true to their motto, asked no questions about his opinions in regard to free trade and protection or anything else, although these were then as unknown as he himself. There was simply an endeavor to ascertain his qualifications for the position. This is an experience which is probably almost unique.

People are learning, both in political economy and natural science, that truth alone can make them free; that truth alone has in it the power of life; that truth — not error — is able to conserve the good, and that to fear it is unworthy of an enlightened people.

There has been the same remarkable progress in the development of an economic literature in America, which has been noted elsewhere. To confine ourselves to the past few months, such works may be mentioned as James on “The Relation of the Modern Municipality to the Gas Supply;” Shaw on “Co-operation in a Western City” — two remarkable publications of the American Economic Association — Hudson on “Railways and the Republic;” Hadley on “Railroad Transportation,” and Laughlin on “Bi-metallism in the United States.” These are all based on investigations in the rich field of American economic life. We have also bold endeavors to reconstruct fundamental principles in economics, like Patten’s “Premises of Political Economy,” and J. B. Clark’s “Philosophy of Wealth.” All these are works of international importance.

One year ago there was no economic periodical in the United States. To-day there are three, and all evidently rest on a permanent basis. They are the bi-monthly monographs of the American Economic Association, published in Baltimore; the Political Science Quarterly of Columbia College, and the Quarterly Journal of Economics, published under the auspices of Harvard University.

A change in the conception of political economy must not fail to be noticed in this place. Its scope has become enlarged, and it is not quite the same thing which it was once. It has become a distinctively ethical science, and necessarily includes purpose within its province. It is clearly recognized that the will of man is a chief factor in economic life, and that, within certain limits, we can have just such a social system as we choose — always, be it observed, however, within certain limits. Accordingly, ideals for the individual, for the State, for society, for the church, are placed before men, and they are urged to strive for them in every practicable way. It is on this account, also, that the new political economy lays so much stress on ethical education, for it is seen that errors as often proceed from the heart as from the head.

It must not be supposed that the new political economy has gained exclusive sway even in the colleges and universities of the United States — much less outside of them. Still it is making its way rapidly; it is accepted by the teachers in most of our colleges, and it is beginning to permeate the thought of our time, as may be seen in the utterances of press and pulpit.

The economists of the older school cannot, either, be denied their use. They are not mere drags on the car of progress, but with their criticism, sharp and ungracious though it sometimes be, they render the advance surer.

In conclusion, however, it is undeniable that the prime need of the hour is increased light in economics, a further development of the new political economy, and the qualities indispensable in the men who would carry on the work already so auspiciously begun are these: a good heart, a strong intellect, and dauntless courage.

Source:  North American Review, Vol. 144, No. 363 (February, 1887), pp. 113-119.

Image Source: Universities and their sons; history, influence and characteristics of American universities, with biographical sketches and  of alumni and recipients of honorary degrees, Vol. IV (1900), p. 505. Image was smoothed and colorised at Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

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Exam Questions Johns Hopkins Macroeconomics Money and Banking

Johns Hopkins. Final exam for monetary economics. Poole, 1968

The artifact chosen for this post is the final examination for William Poole’s monetary economics course at Johns Hopkins University in 1968. Not all artifacts at Economics in the Rear-view Mirror are long.

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William Poole’s Career

William Poole became the eleventh president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on March 23, 1998, and retired March 31, 2008.

Poole was born in Wilmington, Delaware. He received a bachelor’s degree from Swarthmore College in 1959 and a master’s degree and a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago in 1963 and 1966, respectively. Before joining the St. Louis Fed, Poole was Herbert H. Goldberger Professor of Economics at Brown University. He served on the Brown faculty from 1974 to 1998 and the faculty of Johns Hopkins University from 1963 to 1969. Between these two university positions, he was senior economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He was also a member of the Council of Economic Advisers in the first Reagan administration from 1982 to 1985.

Poole has published numerous papers in professional journals and engaged in a wide range of professional activities. He has published two books: Money and the Economy: A Monetarist View in 1978 and Principles of Economics in 1991 (coauthored with J. Vernon Henderson). During his ten years at the St. Louis Fed, he delivered over 150 speeches on a wide variety of economic and finance topics.

In 1980 and 1981, Poole was a visiting economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia; in 1991, he was the Bank Mees and Hope Visiting Professor of Economics at Erasmus University in Rotterdam. He has served on various advisory boards of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and New York and the Congressional Budget Office. He is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, distinguished scholar in residence at the University of Delaware, senior economic adviser to Merk Investments, and a special adviser to Market News International.

Swarthmore honored Poole with a doctor of laws degree in 1989. He was inducted into the Johns Hopkins Society of Scholars in 2005 and presented with the Adam Smith Award by the National Association for Business Economics in 2006. In 2007, the Global Interdependence Center presented him its Frederick Heldring Award.

Source: https://web.archive.org/web/20240607041405/https://www.federalreservehistory.org/people/william-poole

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Other relevant posts

Reading list for monetary economics, 1964 (JHU)

Modigliani and Poole’s MIT reading list, 1977 (MIT)

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The Johns Hopkins University
Political Economy 662
— Monetary Theory

W. Poole

Final Exam — 2 hours
May 27, 1968

Answer three of the four questions below.

  1. In principle It would be possible to “automate” monetary policy by deriving an optimal decision rule. Explain how such a rule might actually be determined, and what the difficulties of such an approach to monetary policy might be.
  2. Discuss the theory and the cyclical behavior of the term structure of interest rates. Is an understanding of this behavior likely to be of any value to the policy-maker?
  3. “It has been argued that lags in the demand for money function may off-set lags in the expenditure sector, thus leading to a rapid response of income to monetary policy actions. But this result depends on large interest rate fluctuations and such fluctuations are inconsistent with both the notion of a speculative demand for money and with the Meiselman learning model of the term structure of interest rates.” Discuss.
  4. “In a one-sector neoclassical growth model, money will affect the growth path provided that the money is outside money and that zero interest is paid on money balances. Therefore, a sensible growth policy is to prohibit payment of interest on demand deposits and to increase the rate of growth of the money stock.” Discuss.

Source: Johns Hopkins University. The Eisenhower Library, Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy, Series 6, Box 3. Folder: “Graduate Exams, 1933-1965”.

Image Source: William Poole at the Federal Reserve Centennial, 2014.

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Berkeley Brown Carnegie Institute of Technology Carnegie Mellon Chicago Columbia Cornell Duke Economics Programs Harvard Illinois Indiana Iowa Johns Hopkins Kansas M.I.T. Michigan Michigan State Minnesota North Carolina Northwestern NYU Ohio State Pennsylvania Princeton Purdue Rochester Stanford Texas UCLA UWash Vanderbilt Virginia Virginia Tech Washington University Wisconsin Yale

U.S. Economics Graduate Programs Ranked, 1957, 1964 and 1969

Recalling my active days in the rat race of academia, a cold shiver runs down my spine at the thought of departmental rankings in the hands of a Dean contemplating budgeting and merit raise pools or second-guessing departmental hiring decisions. 

But let a half-century go by and now, reborn as a historian of economics, I appreciate having the aggregated opinions of yore to constrain our interpretive structures of what mattered when to whomever. 

Research tip: sign up for a free account at archive.org to be able to borrow items still subject to copyright protection for an hour at a time. Sort of like being in the old reserve book room of your brick-and-mortar college library. This is needed if you wish to use the links for the Keniston, Carter, and Roose/Andersen publications linked in this post.

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1925 Rankings

R. M. Hughes. A Study of the Graduate Schools of America (Presented before the Association of American Colleges, January, 1925). Published by Miami University at Oxford, Ohio. (See earlier post that provides the economics ranking from the Hughes’ study)

1957 Rankings

Hayward Keniston. Graduate Study and Research in the Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania (January 1959), pp. 115-119,129.

Tables from Keniston transcribed here at Economics in the Rear-view Mirror:
https://www.irwincollier.com/economics-departments-and-university-rankings-by-chairmen-hughes-1925-and-keniston-1957/

1964 Rankings

Allan M. Cartter, An Assessment of Quality in Graduate Education Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education, 1966.

1969 Rankings

Kenneth D. Roose and Charles J. Andersen, A Rating of Graduate Programs. Washington, D.C.: American Council on Education, 1970.

Tables transcribed below.

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Graduate Programs in Economics
(1957, 1964, 1969)

Percentage of Raters Who Indicate:
Rankings “Quality of Graduate Faculty” Is:
1957 1964 1969 Institution Distiguish-
ed and strong
Good and adequate All other Insufficient Information
Nineteen institutions with scores in the 3.0 to 5.0 range, in rank order
1 1* 1* Harvard 97 3
not ranked 1* 1* M.I.T. 91 9
2 3* 3 Chicago 95 5
3 3* 4 Yale 90 3 7
5* 5 5 Berkeley 86 9 5
7 7 6 Princeton 82 9 10
9 8* 7* Michigan 66 22 11
10 11 7* Minnesota 65 19 15
14 14* 7* Pennsylvania 62 22 15
5* 6 7* Stanford 64 25 11
13 8* 11 Wisconsin 63 26 11
4 8* 12* Columbia 50 37 13
11 12* 12* Northwestern 52 32 16
16 16 14* UCLA 41 38 21
not ranked 12* 14* Carnegie-Mellon Carnegie-Tech (1964) 39 35 26
not ranked not ranked 16 Rochester** 31 39 1 29
8 14* 17 Johns Hopkins 31 56 13
not ranked not ranked 18* Brown** 20 52 1 27
15 17 18* Cornell** 21 56 2 21
*Score and rank are shared with another institution.
**Institution’s 1969 score is in a higher range than ist 1964 score.

 

Ten institutions with scores in the 2.5 to 2.9 range, in alphabetical order
(1969)
Duke
Illinois
Iowa State (Ames)
Michigan State
North Carolina
Purdue
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Washington (St. Louis)
Washington (Seattle)

 

Sixteen institutions with scores in the 2.0 to 2.4 range, in alphabetical order
(1969)
Buffalo*
Claremont
Indiana
Iowa (Iowa City)
Kansas
Maryland
N.Y.U.
North Carolina State*
Ohio State
Oregon
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Rice*
Texas
Texas A&M
Virginia Polytech.*
* Not included in the 1964 survey of economics

 

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Biography Chicago Economists Johns Hopkins

Johns Hopkins. Economics Ph.D. Alumnus, later University of Chicago professor. Marc Nerlove, 1933-2024

 

Caricature by Roger Vaughan in The Journal of Progressive Hedonists Against Radical Thought [P.H.A.R.T.], Special All-Picture Issue (1973). Harvard University Archives. Papers of Zvi Griliches. Box 129, Folder “Posters, ca. 1960s-1970s.”

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The life and career of Marc Nerlove
b. 12 Oct 1933, d. 10 Jul 2024

Marc Leon Nerlove (born 1933) is a white American agricultural economist and econometrician who was born on 12 October 1933 in Chicago, Illinois to Dr. S. H. (Samuel Henry; 1902-1972) and Evelyn (1907-1987) Nerlove. S. H. Nerlove was born in Vitebsk, Russia (now Belarus) and brought to the US by his parents in 1904, and he became a professor of business economics at the University of Chicago (circa 1922-1965) then the University of California, Los Angeles (1962-1969). Evelyn Nerlove was born in Cambridge, Massachusetts and worked at the University of Chicago hospital and taught in the School of Social Service Administration until a university nepotism policy forced her to resign after their marriage in 1932 (although she “returned to her profession” in the 1950s). S. H. and Evelyn had two other children: Harriet Nerlove (circa 1937-2019), who became a clinical psychologist at Stanford University then in New York City, and Sara “Sally” Nerlove (born circa 1942), who became an anthropologist before spending most of her working life as a program officer at the National Science Foundation.

Marc Nerlove attended the University of Chicago Laboratory Schools from 1939-1949, earned a BA with honors in mathematics and general honors in 1952, and was a Research Assistant at the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics in 1953. He then earned a MA in 1955 and a PhD in economics with distinction in 1956 from the Johns Hopkins University (JHU), where Carl Christ supervised his dissertation. Nerlove’s other teachers included Milton Friedman, Theodore Schultz, Ta-Chung Liu, Fritz Machlup, and Jacob Marschak.

Nerlove’s teaching career began in 1958 as a visiting lecturer then lecturer at JHU before he was appointed to his first professorship in 1959 at the University of Minnesota. From there, he made stops at Stanford (1960-1965), Yale University (1965-1969), Chicago (1969-1975), Northwestern University (1974-1982), and the University of Pennsylvania (1982-1993) before retiring from the University of Maryland (1993-2016). He also held many visiting appointments, including at Harvard University (1967-1968), four universities and research centers in Germany, the University of British Columbia (1971), Fundação Getulio Vargas in Brazil (1974-1978), and Australian National University (1982).

Nerlove’s employment history also includes federal service. He was an analytical statistician in the Agricultural Marketing Service at the US Department of Agriculture from 1956-1957, then a lieutenant in the US Army from 1957-1959. He was drafted in 1957, then on loan from the Chemical Corps to the (US) Senate Subcommittee on Antitrust and Monopoly as an economist at the request of Chairman Estes Kefauver in 1958. In addition, Nerlove consulted for the RAND Corporation (1959-1989), Southern Pacific Company (1961), (US) President’s Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemployment Statistics (1962), World Bank (1979-1985), and International Food Policy Research Institute (1981-1986).

Nerlove’s history of professional service includes the Econometric Society (President, 1981), American Economic Association (Executive Committee, 1977-1979), American Statistical Association (advisory committees to the Bureau of the Census, 1964-1969, and Civil Aeronautics Board, 1966-1968), International Economic Association (Chair, Econometrics Section, 1989), National Academy of Sciences (National Research Council Committee on Social Sciences in the NSF, 1975-1976), NSF (proposal reviewer, 1960-1974), and Social Sciences Research Council (Director, Mathematical Social Science Board Summer Workshop on Lags in Economic Behavior, 1970).

Nerlove’s awards include the 1969 John Bates Clark Medal, a Fulbright Research Grant (1962-1963), and two Guggenheim Fellowships (1962-1963; 1978-1979), and he is a Distinguished Fellow of the American Agricultural Economics Association (1993) and American Economic Association (2012).

Nerlove married Mary Ellen Lieberman (died 2011) in the 1950s and they had two daughters, Susan Nerlove (born circa 1958) and Miriam Nerlove (born circa 1960). Miriam Nerlove become an author and illustrator of children’s books, including Who Is David with Evelyn Nerlove in 1985. Marc and Mary Ellen Nerlove divorced in the 1970s, then he married Dr. Anke Meyer (born 1955), a German environmental economist who spent 23 years at the World Bank (1991-2014) and collaborated with him on some of his writings during this time.

Source:  From the Marc L. Nerlove papers, 1930-2014 webpage,  David M.Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library, Duke University.

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Backstory for The Journal of Progressive Hedonists Against Radical Thought at the University of Chicago:

Chicago. The Journal of Progressive Hedonists Against Radical Thought (P.H.A.R.T.), Rodney Smith & Roger Vaughan, 1971

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For Roger Vaughan’s Meisterstück The School of Chicago, see:

Chicago. The School of Chicago 1972 by Roger Vaughan (Ph.D. 1977). IDs by Gordon, McCloskey & Grossbard

Categories
Econometrics Exam Questions Johns Hopkins

Johns Hopkins. Final Exams for “Econometrics”. Christ and Harberger, 1951-1952

 If you have ever wondered why the journal Econometrica has always published much content with next to no “econometrics” (in the sense of mathematical statistics with special application to economics), the final exams for the Johns Hopkins graduate course “Econometrics” taught by Carl Christ and Arnold Harberger in 1951-52 provide us with a ready explanation. We can see that their course offered a combination of mathematical modeling and econometrics, narrowly defined. At mid-20th century economists regarded “econometrics” as the union of mathematical economics and mathematical statistics rather than as the intersection of the two fields.

Fun fact: Marc Nerlove, who entered the Johns Hopkins graduate program in economics in 1952, was in Carl Christ’s econometrics course. This fact and the photo of Christ and Harberger come from Nerlove’s note included on the In Memoriam page for Carl Christ (1923-2017).

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EXAMINATION
ECONOMETRICS

Friday, January 25, 1952 — 2-5 p.m.

Dr. Christ
Dr. Harberger

  1. A monopolist produces Z goods, X1 and X2, under constant unit costs C1 and C2 respectively. The demands for his products are

x1 = x10 – a11 (P1 – C1) – a12 (P2 – C2)
x2 = x20 – a21 (P1 – C1) – a22 (P2 – C2)

Find the Outputs of X1 and X2 which the monopolist will produce in order to maximize profits. What condition on the a’s must be satisfied if your solution is to reflect a true maximum?

  1. Prove Euler’s theorem for homogeneous functions of the first degree.
  2. Consider the utility functions

(1) U1 = ху
(2) U2 = logex + logey

For each function state:

      1. whether the marginal utility of each good is increasing, decreasing, or constant.
      2. whether the marginal utility of one good is independent of the amount of the other good consumed.
      3. the demand functions of a person having a fixed income.

What conclusions do your results suggest?

  1. Two countries. A and B, produce export commodities XA and XB at constant cost in local currency. Income in each country is stabilized by government policy, and the demand for imports depends solely on the local-currency price of imports. The exchange rate is normally fixed, but is subject to change by policy action. Assume Country A, in an initial equilibrium of the system, does not receive as much foreign currency as it has to pay for the imports its citizens demand. What are the conditions under which the gap between its receipts and expenditures of foreign currency can be decreased by devaluation? Do these same conditions apply to the gap between receipts and expenditures expressed in its own currency?
  2. Factor A is the only factor used by a monopolist, who produces good X. The suppliers of factor A always demand a constant percentage of the product price p as their unit price. At, this price they are willing to supply unlimited amounts of A.
      1. Assume returns to scale are constant. What output will the monopolist produce? Is thin output any different from that he would produce if A were free good.
      2. Assume returns to scale are decreasing. What output will the monopolist produce? Compare your present result with your answer to (a).

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

ECONOMETRICS 633-34
Final Examination

Thursday, May 22, 1952
  1. Define
      1. exogenous variable
      2. overidentified equation
      3. consistency
      4. likelihood function
      5. condensed likelihood function
  2. Suppose the actual supply and demand equations for 2 goods X1 and X2 are as follows (where p1 and p2 are their respective prices, and income Y and wage rate w are exogenous):

S1:           X1 = 3p1 – 6w + 1

D1:           X1 = 2p1 – 5p2 + Y + 2

S2:           X2 = 7p2 – 8w +3

D2:           X2 = 4p1 – 4p2 + 2Y +4

State whether each equation is identified.

  1. Given that y = ax + b + u, where a is an independent variable, u is a random normal disturbance with mean 0 and constant variance σ2, and a and b are parameters. Derive the maximum likelihood estimates of a, b, and σ2 based on N observations on the pair of variables x and y.
  2. What assumptions must you make and what data do you need in order to obtain limited-information maximum-likelihood estimates of the following equation:

C= α Y + β C-1 + γ

where C and Y are real consumption and disposable income, respectively.

  1. The output of each of n industries (excluding households) is produced by a given process requiring fixed proportions of inputs of the other n-1 commodities. If these proportions are known and if a final-demand bill of goods is specified, how are the total outputs of the n industries determined?
  2. It has been asserted that the materials restrictions imposed on durable goods manufactures after Korea, while limiting the output of durable goods well below the level of 1950, did not reduce the quantities sold to a point below what they would have been in the absence of the restrictions. This assertion is supported by empirical evidence is the form of the observed accumulation of manufacturers’ and dealers’ inventories and of some price-cutting in 1951-52. Can you think of any way whereby back in 1950 you could have anticipated these developments? To answer this question, what empirical data would you seek and how would you use it, with respect to consumer durables generally or to any particular durable good?

Source: Johns Hopkins University. Eisenhower Library, Ferdinand hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy, Series 6, Series 7, Subseries 1, Box 3/1, Folder “Department of Political Economy, Graduate Exams 1933-1965.”

Image Source: Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Webpage “In Memoriam – Carl Christ (1923-2017).” Carl Christ and Arnold Harberger at the Johns Hopkins conference in honor of Marc Nerlove, 2014.

Categories
Exam Questions Johns Hopkins Macroeconomics

John Hopkins. Final exam for graduate macroeconomic theory. Aschheim, Christ, Mills. 1962

 

The only remarkable thing to note about the following macroeconomics examination from Johns Hopkins is its somewhat confusing scheme for allowing students to select from the questions. No heroic leaps of imagination were demanded of the examinees, which is humane I guess. But an artifact is an artifact, so duly transcribed, posted, and added to the collection.

______________________________

MACROECONOMIC THEORY 18.604
Final Examination, May 21, 1962

Messrs. [Joseph] Aschheim,
[Carl] Christ, and [Edwin] Mills

Answer all questions except:

either       (a) three of the 12-point questions in Part II.
or             (b) one of the 36-point questions in Part I.

Time: 3 hours (i.e., 180 minutes); total credit 180 points.

PART I. 36 points each.
  1. Compare the roles assigned to technological progress in major writings of Schumpeter and Solow.
  2. Write a short critical essay comparing either
    1. The growth models of Harrod and Domar, or
    2. The models of growth and fluctuations presented by Tobin (JPE 1955) and Duesenberry (Business Cycles and Economic Growth)
  3. Analyze the essential differences between the modern conventional theory of public debt and the recent reformulation of this theory.
  4. The stability of equilibrium in the Wicksellian monetary system has been subjected to opposing interpretations by Myrdal and Patinkin. Review these opposing interpretations in light of Wicksell’s own formulation.
PART II. 12 points each.
  1. Saving equals investment.
  2. The demand for money (as a stock) depends on bondholdings as well as on income and interest rates.
  3. Disarmament would create a major depression in the United States.
  4. The effect of an increase in government expenditure does not depend on how the extra expenditure is financed, as long as it does not come from increased taxes.
  5. If national income is $500 billion and consumption is $400 billion, then for each increase of $1 in government expenditure the equilibrium level of national income will increase by $5.
  6. The multiplier analysis is useful for studying economic growth, abstracting from cyclical fluctuations.

Source: Johns Hopkins University, Sheridan Libraries, Ferdinand Hamburger University Archives. Department of Political Economy, Box 3/1 Series 6 , Folder “Graduate Exams 1933-1965” (sic).

Source: Professor Carl Christ in the Johns Hopkins University yearbook, Hullabaloo 1964, p. 42.

Categories
Economics Programs Johns Hopkins

Johns Hopkins. Ten-Year Projects and Outlook for Department. 1968-1978

The following ten-year plan (1968-1978) proposal for the department of political economy of Johns Hopkins was most likely drafted by senior members of the department, though the precise author(s) is not clear from the document itself. The bottom line of this plan is a request to be allowed to expand the deparment’s faculty and graduate student body by by half and by two-thirds, respectively. Otherwise the department feared  the loss of its national reputation due to having a reduced scope and scale.

The plan is at least as interesting for its obiter dicta regarding e.g., air-conditioning, computer terminals, secretarial staff, etc. 

_______________________

TEN-YEAR PROJECTS AND OUTLOOK FOR
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
[Draft, 1967]

I. Introduction and Summary

The Department of Political Economy, like the rest of the University, has concentrated on small numbers and high quality in its research and instructional programs. It is our intention to continue that tradition.
During the early postwar period, this Department produced as large a group of outstanding young economists as almost any university in the country. Its small faculty included several of the country’s most eminent economists. Between 1958 and 1961 the Department was plagued with resignations of senior faculty. At the same time resources available at other universities were growing rapidly. As a result the Department lost its former status as a major producer of research and scholars. Since 1961, the Department has steadily been rebuilt and is again able to attract its share of outstanding faculty and graduate students. But the Department still suffers to some extent from the factors responsible for its earlier troubles: its small size and limited resource base.
The Department now consists of 11 faculty and 45 resident Ph.D. candidates.
The program outlined in subsequent sections is designed to strengthen the Department by increasing Its size and financial base, while still permitting it to reap the advantages of its relatively small size.
During the next decade, the Department should grow to about 18 faculty members, or about 50%. Its Ph.D. candidates should grow to about 75, or by about two-thirds. Such growth is essential to add stability to the research and instructional programs, and to permit us to cover the growing number of specialties in the subject.
Growth will be expensive. Faculty salaries and graduate fellowships will continue to rise. And no university can retain excellence, let alone improve its position, without substantial budgetary increases. Within a decade, the Department’s budget for salaries and fellowships should almost triple.

II. Immediate Needs and Plans

A. In 1967-68, the Department has ten full-time faculty members, one joint appointment with Operations Research, and one faculty member whose major appointment is in the School of Public Health. (A second joint appointment with Public Health was made in Spring 1967, but the appointee will be in Pakistan for two years.) We have two vacancies. One is a professorship, and results from the Department’s having been permitted to replace Professor Evans prior to his retirement. We have appointed a visiting Professor to this post for 1968-69. The other vacant post is an Assistant Professorship, created in the spring of 1967.
The Department’s full-time faculty ought to expand to about 18 during the next decade. Three purposes would be served by such an expansion. First, it would provide the Department with more depth in the central specialties of economic theory and quantitative methods, so that a resignation or leave of absence would not disrupt the instructional program. Second, it would permit us to make appointments in important specialties not adequately covered by existing faculty. The inevitable increase in specialization through time makes gradual expansion necessary. Third, it would enable us to discharge our obligations to the instructional programs in international relations more adequately.
The Department is now actively seeking funds for the establishment of a Center for International Economic Studies within the Department. This Center would provide a focus for graduate instruction and research in the areas of international trade and economic development. The Center would provide a major substantive focus for the Department in addition to its present focus on economic theory and quantitative methods. In addition, it would help to fill a pressing social need, since the development of poor countries is perhaps the most pressing social problem of our time. Finally, it would permit us to exploit the unique advantages of the University’s proximity to Washington.
Although we are now strong in international economics, we are weak in economic development. Hence, a specialist in economic development is our most pressing need in terms of our proposed Center, our own graduate program, and our participation in the international relations programs. Our next highest priority is in the area of industrial organization, in which we now offer only one course in alternate years. Other fields in which we need additional strength are economic growth, public finance, private finance, econometrics, managerial economics, and Soviet-type economics.
Our needs are not equally urgent in all these areas. And not every specialty requires a separate appointment. Individual scholars often have interests in two or more specialties. Finally, the importance of particular specialties, and the interests of individual faculty members change gradually through time.

B. The most important research facilities for the Economics Department are the library and computational facilities. In both cases, the special needs of the Department will make it increasingly important in the coming decade to supplement the facilities available to the University as a whole.
For many years the Department has felt the need for a workroom where copies of major journals and reference books could be kept. In an important sense, the technical journals and data sources play the role in economics that the laboratory plays in an experimental. science. The movement of the library from Gilman Hall has imposed a major burden on faculty in the Department. In addition, faculty and graduate students in economics are now sufficiently numerous that duplicate copies of major journals are essential. We have made a small beginning toward meeting our library needs by establishing a workroom in our new quarters. A very limited number of journals is being purchased from research funds. In the coming years it will be important to expand the number of journals in our workroom, and to add major reference and data volumes. If a new social science building is constructed, or if the Department is able to expand its quarters as a result of the construction of a humanities building, a departmental library should be a major planning item.
The Department now has 6 desk calculators for use by faculty and students. Most are old and should be replaced with more modern machines within a few years. In the next decade we should at least double the number of calculators available. Some of our faculty now make frequent use of one or more of the real time-saving consoles located around the University. Within a short time, it will be important for the Department to have one or more such consoles in or near the Department area.
The Department now has two full-time and one half-time secretary. The half-time secretary is financed from research funds. Within a year or two she will need to be full time. Within a decade we will probably need five full-time secretaries. We need one additional electric typewriter this fall, and at least three modern tape recorders. During the coming years wo will need several additional typewriters and recorders, and other minor items of office equipment.

C. In the spring of 1967, we substantially revised both our undergraduate and graduate curricula. At the undergraduate level, the major change was to permit most courses to be taken after only two semesters economic theory rather than three as was previously required. This opened up, several courses in the Department to international relations majors and others outside the economics major. At the graduate level, the major change was to provide a more concentrated and integrated program in economic theory for first-year Ph.D. candidates.
During the last few years, the number of undergraduate registrations in economics courses has grown much more rapidly than the undergraduate student body. This is shown in the following table of selected registrations.

1963-64 1964-65 1965-66 1966-67
18.1 241 339 351 358
18.2 50 85 121 107
18.3 50 79 94 108
18.301-302 51 56 52 74
Total 392 559 618 647

This has necessitated our giving some courses each semester which were previously given in alternate semesters. Presumably, future growth in undergraduate registrations will more nearly approximate the growth in the student body. During the next few years our major need at the undergraduate level is to add a few specialized courses that will be available to students with a limited background in economics. Planned economics and urban economics are examples of such courses.
Our Ph.D. program is now too small. We do not have enough students to justify graduate courses in specialties which should be covered in a high quality graduate program, and we do not have enough faculty to offer the courses. We thus need to expand the graduate enrollment and the faculty simultaneously in order to be able to fill gaps in our graduate program in areas such as economic development, fiscal policy and industrial organization.

D. This Department is far smaller than any other major graduate department in economics. The next smallest, Princeton, is approximately the size that our projections indicate we will be in 10 years. Others are much larger.
We do not aspire to match the size and growth of most of the departments with which we compete for faculty and graduate students. We are firmly convinced of the advantages of smallness. But until very recently our size was almost below that required for viability. And we see clear advantages in some further growth, which would still retain the benefits of our relatively small size.

III. In this section I will discuss the undergraduate and graduate instructional programs, and faculty research activities in that order.

Undergraduates can either concentrate or major in economics. Although there is some tendency for better students to major rather than concentrate, some very able students choose the less intensive program. A stronger tendency is for those whose goal is a Ph.D. program in economics to major, and for others to concentrate.
An average senior class contains about 15 concentrators in economics. Some of these graduates take jobs, but many go to graduate school in business, law and economics.
An average senior class contains about 10 majors in economics. Although a few majors take jobs upon graduation, most attend graduate school in economics or business. And the program is designed with this group in mind. In recent years, our majors have undertaken successful graduate study at Chicago, Stanford, M.I.T., Johns Hopkins and other leading institutions. The Department’s requirements of a major include four semesters of economic theory, economic history, a year of statistics, a year of mathematics, a senior essay, and work on one or more advanced fields. We feel that our majors are as well prepared for graduate study as those at any university in the country.
For many years, the goal of our Ph.D. program has been to provide thorough training in economic theory, quantitative methods, and a small number of substantive fields to a small group of high quality students, most of whom intend to enter teaching and research posts. In the years 1950-1966, 63 people received the Ph.D. for work in this Department. This comes to 3.7 per year, but there is a slight upward trend, and we have given about five per year in recent years. Among them are some of the leading academic economists of the postwar generation. Our graduates hold posts at Yale, Chicago, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin and other leading United States universities. They also hold major academic posts in the U.K., Israel, Japan and Australia.
In the early postwar period, Johns Hopkins had among its Ph.D. candidates more than its share of the best students who studied economics. This resulted from the high quality of the faculty, the small and personal nature of the Ph.D. program, and the ability of the Department to offer fellowships that were larger than those offered by competing institutions. In the late 1950’s, this situation changed, partly because of the loss of most of the Department’s senior faculty. Since 1981, the Department has been substantially rebuilt; and is again among the leading economics departments in this country. We have greatly improved the quality of the student body, and are now getting about our share of the best graduate students, but we have not regained our former edge. To do so is the goal of the plans outlined in other sections of this report.
In the Political Economy Department, as elsewhere in the University, most faculty research is basic rather than applied. Within that framework, however, a wide spectrum of subjects and techniques is encompassed. Some of the research is purely theoretical, employing mathematical and logical tools to improve our understanding of economic phenomenon. Most of the research, however, is quantitative, employing not only economic theory but also statistical methods and data.

IV. Relationship to the Hopkins community

A. At the undergraduate level, the enrollment in economics courses has grown rapidly in recent years. Nearly every undergraduate now takes at least one economics course. And for several years we have had more than a hundred students per year in each of our second and third courses in economic theory. About 50 students per year enroll in our course in current economic problems. In 1967-68, the Department will offer 11 semester courses at the 0-99 level, and 13 semester courses at the 300-level, all of them open to undergraduates who are not economics majors.
At the graduate level our Ph.D. candidates frequently take courses in the Departments of Mathematics, Statistics, and Operations Research. Less frequently they take courses in the Departments of Political Science, History, Geography, and Social Relations. Frequently, 300- and 600-level courses in economics are taken by Ph.D. candidates in Operations Research, Environmental Sciences, Statistics, and Geography. Less frequently, they are taken by students in History, Social Relations and Political Science. Sometimes, students from SAIS take our courses in international economics and economic development.
In recent years, there has been a considerable increase in the exchange of graduate students between this Department and others for course work. We expect this trend to continue and feel that it should be encouraged.

B. The Center for International Studies will be established within the Department of Political Economy. However, many problems within the Center’s purview require interdisciplinary study, and we hope to use the Center as a vehicle for joint teaching and research programs. SAIS is the most natural partner for such ventures, but we hope to explore possibilities with Homewood departments also.

C. The Department takes an active part in the A.B.-M.A. and Ph.D. programs in international relations. We give year courses in international economics and economic development mainly for students in these programs. In our curriculum revision last spring, we reduced the prerequisites for these courses to make them more accessible to international relations specialists. We are generally pleased with our success in staffing the economics part of the international relations program. However, we feel a need for a major appointment in economic development before we can be fully satisfied with our contribution.
The Political Economy Department has one joint appointment with the Operations Research Department. In addition, wo have two faculty members in the Department whose major appointments are in the School of Public Health. The Department has no fixed policy regarding joint appointments. Those that wo have are successful because of special circumstances in which such an arrangement is in the interests of all parties. We expect that such circumstances will arise again. But we think it unwise to plan for certain numbers or kinds of joint appointments.

V. Instructional Program

A. The following table summarizes the Department’s instructional program in 1967-68:

Course Number No. of Courses Hours Per Week Credit Hours No. of Courses Hours Per Week Credit Hours No. of Courses Hours Per Week Credit Hours
0 – 99 5 14 14 6 17 17 11 31 31
300-399 7 15 22 ½ 6 13 19 ½ 13 23 42
600-699 11 23 12 24 23 47
Total 23 52 24 54 47 106

Each full-time faculty member except the chairman teaches two courses per semester. The chairman teaches three courses per year. All faculty attend the weekly Department seminar. Most faculty members will attend our dissertation seminar several times a year.
All courses numbered 0-99 are open to all qualified undergraduates, whether they are economics majors or not. All 300-399 numbered courses are open to qualified undergraduates and to graduate students from other departments. A few are not normally taken by Ph.D. candidates in economics. 600-699 numbered courses are open to graduate students in this and other departments.
It is difficult to predict future growth of undergraduate enrollment since, as stated above, we expect it to grow about as fast as the undergraduate student body, which we do not control. However, even in the absence of substantial growth in enrollments, there are several courses that should be added either at the 0-99 or the 300-399 level. These include comparative economic systems, corporation finance, public finance, and economic growth. Some other courses, now given only in alternate years, should be given every year. These include industrial organization, economics of education, and urban economics. Substantial growth in enrollments would require that we offer additional sections of some courses and that we offer some courses every semester rather than once a year.
At the graduate level, our intake of students has been between 10 and 15 for several years, resulting in a body of about 35 students in residence. We have now embarked on a conscious program of increasing the size of our graduate program; in 1967-68, 18 students entered and our student body is 45. Our intake should increase gradually over the coming decade to about 25, with a resulting student body of about 75. Seventy-five is the present graduate enrollment of the next smallest of major graduate programs in economics in other universities. Others are considerably larger. We feel that this growth is necessary to enable us to offer the range of courses now required for proper coverage of our subject matter.
Unless a major expansion of the international relations program is undertaken, we should not have to devote more faculty resources to it, once we have made the appointment we are now seeking in economic development.
Expansion of the faculty from 11 to 18 would permit the addition of 28 semester courses in the Department. The exact nature and level of the courses to added will depend on the interests of faculty members recruited, the interests of undergraduate and graduate students, and developments in the subject matter. However, we expect to continue the policy of devoting roughly half the Department’s teaching resources to courses numbered 0-99 and 300-399, and the other half to 600-level courses.

B. The Department completely reorganized both its undergraduate and graduate curricula in the spring of 1967. This reorganization permitted us to identify clearly the gaps in our program referred to in Section II. We feel that our only pressing curriculum need is now to fill these gaps. Major curriculum reform becomes necessary periodically in a developing discipline, but we have no plans for further reform.

VI. Resources Outside the University

The Department has no formal relationship with organizations outside the University. The Department does, however, benefit from proximity to Washington in several ways. First, proximity to Washington is an attraction to some actual and prospective faculty members. They may obtain data, attend meetings and seminars, and occasionally undertake paid consulting at U.S. Government agencies, international organizations, or private research Institutions. Second, Washington is an attractive source of summer jobs for our graduate students, and a few of our graduates take permanent posts there.

VII. Space requirements

In the spring of 1967 the Department moved into new quarters on the fourth floor of Gilman Hall. These quarters are an important improvement over those previously available to the Department. The new quarters consist of 12 faculty offices, a departmental office, a calculator room, 11 small cubicles for graduate students, a seminar room, and a workroom where recent technical journals are kept.
In terms of space needs, however, the now quarters are already inadequate. We now have 13 faculty posts in the Department, but only 12 offices. In fall 1968 we expect to have all 13 posts filled, and we will have the Hinkley Professor in the Department. We will thus be two offices short. In addition, we recently hired a part-time secretary. The Department office is adequate for only the two secretaries now occupying it and we have to house the new secretary in the calculator room. Within the next year the part-time post will have to be made full time, and the housing problem will be acute.
The ten-year projection for the Department will require major additions to the Department’s space facilities. Faculty offices will have to expand from 12 to 18. The secretarial force will have to expand to at least five, and that will require at least two rooms entirely devoted to secretarial use. The Department now has one seminar room. Virtually all our 300- and 600-level courses are held there and it is in use more than 35 hours per week within a short time it will be necessary to have an additional seminar room. Within ten years it will be important to have a third room that can be used for seminars, conferences and other meetings. Within the next few years we will need a larger calculator room. We already need additional calculators, and this need will grow as the faculty and graduate student body grows. In addition, we will shortly need one or more real time sharing consoles in the Department area.
It is clear that a building to house either the social or behavioral sciences is already overdue at Johns Hopkins. Despite all the building on the campus in the last decade, the social sciences and humanities – as well as statistics and various ancillary facilities are still all housed In Gilman Hall. It is virtually the only building on the campus that is not fully air conditioned. And the removal of the main library has worsened the situation.
The nature of this Department’s space needs would make it difficult, but not impossible, to satisfy them by regrouping the Gilman facilities if some other departments were to be housed in other buildings. A social or behavioral science building – which would include economics ought to be a major part of the 10-year fund raising program.

VIII. Tables and Graphs

A. The following table shows the undergraduate concentrators and majors in Political Economy for 1967-68:

Concentrators Majors
Juniors 5 10
Seniors 16 9

This table does not include the BIM students.
In 1967-68 the Department has 18 entering and 27 returning graduate students. We have no post-doctoral students.

B. Faculty

Edwin S. Mills – Professor and Chairman

Age: 39
econometrics, statistics, microeconomics
Research projects: [blank]

Bela Balassa – Professor

Age: 39
International trade, economic theory, comparative systems, economic development
Research projects: [blank]

Carl F. Christ – Professor

Age: 44
econometrics, macroeconomics, money
Research projects: [blank]

G. Heberton Evans, Jr. – Professor

Age: 67
economic history, history of economic thought, private finance
Research projects: [blank]

Herbert E. Klarman – Professor

Age: 51
economics of health, public finance
Research projects: [blank]

Peter Newman – Professor

Age: 39
economic theory, mathematical economics, economic development
Research projects: [blank]

Jürg Niehans – Professor

Age: 48
economic theory, money
Research Projects: [blank]

Frederick T. Sparrow – Associate Professor

Age: [blank]
operations research, microeconomic theory, managerial economics
Research projects: [blank]

William Oakland – Assistant Professor

Age: 28
public finance, money, economic theory
Research projects: [blank]

John Owen – Assistant Professor

Age: 35
labor, economic theory, education
Research Projects: [blank]

William Poole – Assistant Professor

Age: 30
money, macroeconomics, international trade
Research projects: [blank]

H. Louis Stettler, III – Assistant Professor

Age: 29
economic history, economic theory, statistics
Research projects: [blank]

C. As was stated above, the Department should grow from its present size of 12 faculty members to 18 during the next decade. We feel that the current division by rank — about half the faculty are professors — is about right. The following table shows a feasible growth pattern to meet the projected goal:

1967-68

1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77

1977-78

Prof.

6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9
Assoc. Prof. 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2

Asst. Prof.

4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
Total 11 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17

18

Our priorities among specialties were indicated in Section II. Beyond that, it is not possible to indicate which appointments should be made in which years and at which levels. Much depends on the availability of particular faculty in whom we are interested and on combinations of zfields in which prospective faculty are interested.

D. The Department is not persuaded that there is an important place for postdoctoral studies in economics during the next decade. Promising graduate students now obtain well-paid posts at universities with graduate programs and with relatively light teaching loads. Our impression is that it would be difficult to entice them to post-doctoral fellowships, and that there is little merit in doing so. Nor are we persuaded that there is a substantial group of young economists at small colleges who could produce significant books and papers if given a year off from heavy teaching duties. The only promising possibility seems to be to find a small number of young foreign scholars who have the Ph.D. or its equivalent, and who could spend a year here with mutual benefit to themselves and to us. The Department is not prepared to urge such a program at this time.

E. The accompanying table shows a projected ton-year budget for the Department of Political Economy. The personnel item includes base salaries and fringe benefits of faculty, secretaries and junior instructors. It assumes that faculty salaries will rise by 7% per year over the next decade. It also takes account of the faculty expansion projected in Section E.
The fellowship budget includes graduate fellowships, tuition and stipends, from whatever source. At present, some is University money, some is U.S. Government money funneled through the University (NDEA, NSF), some is fellowship money obtained by students with Department recommendations, and some is money obtained by students (mostly foreigners) entirely on their own (from foreign sources, U.S. State Department, foundations). This budget assumes that fellowships per student will rise by about 5% per year during the next decade. The table also assumes that the number of entering students will rise from 18 to 25, and the total graduate student body from 45 to 75, over the next decade.
The third line projects a growth of the Department’s incidental and telephone accounts by about 5% per year over the decade.
Excluded from the table are research funds for supplemental faculty salary, research assistants, or computing. No attempt has been made to project funds available from sponsored research or from University sources such as the faculty research grants fund.

1967-68

1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72

1972-73

Personnel

233,640 250,000 306,400 340,700 356,500 395,500
Fellowships 159,500 186,000 207,100 229,700 254,100

280,400

Telephones, Supplies

4,000 4,200 4,400 4,600 4,900 5,100
397,140 440,200 517,900 575,000 615,500

681,000

1973-74

1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78
Personnel 453,200 484,900 535,800 573,800

653,400

Fellowships

308,600 339,000 371,600 401,200 432,800
Telephones, Supplies 5,400 5,600 5,900 6,200

6,500

767,200

829,500 913,300 981,200

1,092,700

Source: Johns Hopkins University. The Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy [Records], Box 5, Folder “Planning Documents: 1938, 1965, 1967”.

Categories
Exam Questions Johns Hopkins Money and Banking

Johns Hopkins. Semester Exams for Monetary Economics. Musgrave, 1959-1960

 

From 1958 through 1962 Richard Musgrave was Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins. One thinks of him today as a giant in the history of public finance but the examination below reminds us that he was also an economist who still taught graduate courses in monetary economics/policy at least into the early 1960s.

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More about Richard Musgrave

All posts with the tag “Musgrave” here at Economics in the Rear-view Mirror.

In particular one post with biographical and career information.

______________________

Richard Musgrave
Faculty of Arts and Sciences — Memorial Minute

At a Meeting of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences April 8, 2008, the following Minute was placed upon the records.

Richard Musgrave, the Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus, was the leading public finance economist of his generation. He died on January 15, 2007, at the age of 96.

Richard Abel-Musgrave was born in Königstein, Germany, and educated in Munich and Heidelberg. He was of half Jewish ancestry, his paternal grandfather and maternal grandmother both being Jews who had converted to the Christian faith.

He came to the United States in 1933 as an exchange student at Rochester University but soon transferred to Harvard where he received his PhD in 1937. He decided not to return to Germany and applied for U.S. citizenship in that same year. At that time he dropped the hyphen in his family name, becoming Richard Abel Musgrave. He was known thereafter as Richard Musgrave.

After completing his PhD, Musgrave worked at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve until 1948. He then taught at Johns Hopkins, the University of Michigan and Princeton before joining the faculty at Harvard in 1965. He held simultaneous appointments in the economics department and in the Harvard Law School, the first person to hold a joint appointment in both the Faculty of Arts and Sciences and the Law School. Professor Musgrave took emeritus status in 1981 and moved to California where he was an adjunct professor at the University of California at Santa Cruz.

Although the 19th-century giants of political economy, David Ricardo and John Stuart Mill, wrote extensively about the theory of taxation, by the middle of the 20th century the teaching and writing on public finance in the United States was largely descriptive and institutional. Richard Musgrave changed all of that with his major volume, The Theory of Public Finance, published in 1959.

The Theory of Public Finance was both a theoretical research monograph and a text book. It applied the analytic tools of price theory and of Keynesian macroeconomics to the issues of tax incidence (i.e., who bears the burden of taxes), of efficiency (i.e., measuring the losses caused by the distorting effects of taxes), and of achieving full employment. All of this was done in a very readable and accessible way that made the book very widely studied. The book proved to be a particularly significant resource for tax law professors in their teaching and writing about federal tax policy.

A key feature of Musgrave’s Theory of Public Finance was the division of the problem of public finance into what Musgrave called three “branches.” One “branch” was devoted to the problem of achieving full employment. Here Musgrave applied the ideas of Keynesian fiscal policy to using tax reductions and government spending to increasing aggregate demand. A second “branch” focused on economic efficiency, i.e., on the design of taxes that would raise revenue with the least distortion to incentives and therefore the least loss of real incomes. The third “branch” then dealt with issues of redistribution to achieve a politically acceptable distribution of income. These branches were of course just pedagogical devices and not a way of organizing the actual making of policy.

Richard Musgrave was an inspiring teacher. It was clear to his students that he cared about both the analytic science in public finance and the practical implications of that analysis for improving our tax system. He taught students to think about the impact of taxes on economic efficiency while not losing sight of their distributional consequences. Or, as he might have said, to think about the distribution of the tax burden and the use of taxes and transfers to redistribute income while not losing sight of the consequences of the progressive tax and transfer structure on economic efficiency.

In the weekly graduate seminar in public finance, graduate students and visiting faculty would present their latest research. The seminar brought together not only graduate students and faculty from the department of economics, but also tax specialist members of the Harvard Law School faculty. Their presence added a greater degree of practical focus to the seminar’s discussion of tax reform. Musgrave’s questions and insights kept the seminar focused on the substantive importance of the problems rather than on the more abstract methodological issues. Many of the students taught by Richard Musgrave went on to do important work in public finance.

Although Musgrave felt strongly about tax policy and about transfer programs like Social Security and unemployment insurance, he was not an activist who tried to influence outcomes in Washington. He appeared to believe that he was most effective in developing the analysis and teaching students who would carry this material into practice.

An important exception to this was a major report on fiscal reform in Columbia that Musgrave prepared jointly with Malcolm Gillis in 1971. This report, prepared under the auspices of the Harvard International Tax Program of the Harvard Law School, was based on extensive and detailed work in Columbia.

Richard Musgrave was elected a Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association in 1978. Musgrave was one of the organizers of the International Seminar in Public Economics which brought together American and European faculty members who specialized in public finance. He also served as an honorary president of the International Institute of Public Finance.

Professor Musgrave collaborated with his wife, Peggy Musgrave, in writing a popular undergraduate text book, Public Finance in Theory and Practice, which was published in 1973. The Musgraves also found time to reach out to young colleagues and their wives at their homes in Belmont and in Vermont.

Respectfully submitted,

Lawrence Summers
Bernard Wolfman
Martin Feldstein, Chair

Source: The Harvard Gazette. June 12, 2008.

______________________

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY

Economics 611
Final Examination
Prof. R. A. Musgrave
January 22, 1960

I

Write for forty-five minutes.

There is by now pretty general agreement, among monetary theorists, regarding the various relationships by which the supply of money may affect the level of output and prices. Nevertheless, there remains a division between those who prefer to study the role of money in the framework of an income-expenditure approach, and those who prefer the quantity theory of equation of exchange tradition. What, if any, substantive justification is there for retention of this dichotomy? If there is none, which approach is to be retained? If there is, what distinct purposes are served by the two approaches?

II

Write on two out of the following three questions, thirty minutes each,

  1. Various writers, including Wicksell, Fisher and Keynes, have treated the problem of monetary disequilibrium and the nature of the equilibrating process, in terms of the differential between two rates of interest. Discuss these approaches and compare the concepts of interest used therein.
  2. Where do you stand on the loanable funds—liquidity preference controversy? In particular, are you satisfied that the distinction between the stock and the flow approach to monetary theory is purely terminological?
  3. “It was a great misfortune for the development of monetary theory, that Marshall and Pigou did not stick with their initial intent to relate k to wealth, but proceeded to relate it to income. Thereby was postponed the recognition — so essential for a fruitful approach to monetary theory — that the demand for money must be dealt with in the context of a general portfolio theory.” Discuss.
III

Write on the following three statements, for fifteen minutes each. Indicate whether the statement is right or wrong and why.

  1. “The real balance effect implies that the demand schedule for money has unit elasticity, from which it follows that the price level changes proportionately with the money supply.”
  2. “The liquidity trap is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for under-employment equilibrium.”
  3. “Classical theory was mistaken in assuming that the rate of interest is determined by income independent of money supply. As Keynes has shown, interest is determined by money supply and then determines income.”

______________________

Dr. R. A. Musgrave
Friday, May 20, 1960

ECONOMICS 611
  1. The following changes occur: Bill holdings at the Federal Reserve rise by 100 million, while bond holdings fall by 80 million. Also, bank holdings of bills fall by 70 million, non-bank holdings of bills fall by 30 million, and non-bank holdings of bonds rise by 80 million. What is the resulting change in excess reserves, assuming a reserve ratio of 20%, and why? (Assume that the system retains such changes in excess reserves as result, without reacting with corresponding changes in loans.)
  2. Assume that the system is always loaned up. What will be the effects on member bank reserves and demand deposits of (a) an increase in vault cash by 100; (b) a decrease in currency in circulation by 200; (c) a gold outflow of 300; (d) a decrease in treasury deposits at commercial banks by 500. The reserve ratio is again 20%.

Source: Johns Hopkins University. The Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy [Records], Series 6/7, Box 3, Folder “Department of Political Economy, Graduate Exams 1933-1965”.

Image Source: Richard A. Musgrave page at the University of Michigan’s Faculty History Project.

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Exam Questions Johns Hopkins Theory

Johns Hopkins. Exam for Welfare Economics. Lerner, 1958

 

Abba Lerner changed his academic locations (including leaves of absence to accept visiting positions) with a frequency rivaled by few. The academic year 1957-58 found him visiting the department of political economy at Johns Hopkins University. The artifact for this post is the final examination for Lerner’s course on welfare economics.

Lerner’s notes for seminars on social welfare functions held at the IMF and at the Cowles Commission in  1952.

_________________________

THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY
Welfare Economics
18-640

Final Examination May 20th 2-5 p.m., 1958.
Abba P. Lerner

Answer four questions, in separate blue books, in ink.

  1. Discuss the meaning, the validity and the significance of the proposition that it is impossible to derive a social welfare function from individual preference functions.
  2. How far can one carry the analogy between a political voting procedure and the economic price mechanism, and between the rationale of voting between alternative policies and that of allocating dollars between alternative purchases?
  3. Discuss the rational elements in relation to other elements in the social objectives of optimum distribution of income, optimum population, and optimum rate of saving.
  4. What is sound, what is unsound, and what is useful in the doctrine of consumers’ surplus?
  5. Why is it socially desirable to have the prices of products equal to the value of the marginal factors used in their production? How is this objective affected by equity elements such as the need for subsidies?
  6. Under what conditions would a partial freeing of trade be harmful to society in the largest sense? In your answer explain the treatment of this problem in terms of “second best” and the use of the concept of “divergence”.
  7. Compare the arguments for the imposition of trade restrictions for the sake of affecting the international terms of trade with those undertaken for the sake of affecting the domestic distribution of income. Give special attention to the interdependence of efficiency and equity considerations.

Source: Johns Hopkins University. The Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy [Records], Series 6/7, Box 3, Folder “Department of Political Economy, Graduate Exams 1933-1965”.

Image Source: Photograph of Abba Lerner printed in an announcement for his speech “Israel—The Next Ten Years” (February 25) at the 1958 Forum presented by Beth Emet the Free Synagogue (Evanston, Illinois). Library of Congress, Manuscript Division. The Papers of Abba P. Lerner, Box 6, Folder 8 “ ‘B’ miscellany”. A copy of the announcement was posted by Ellen Blum Barish in Tablet (January 14, 2014).

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Business Cycles Distribution Economic History Exam Questions History of Economics Industrial Organization International Economics Johns Hopkins Labor Money and Banking Public Finance Public Utilities Statistics Theory

Johns Hopkins. General Written Exam for Economics PhD. 1956

 

One is struck by the relative weight of the history of economics in this four part (12 hours total) general examination for the PhD degree at Johns Hopkins in 1956. Also interesting to note just how many different areas are touched upon. Plenty of choice, but no place to hide.

________________________

Other General Exams from Johns Hopkins

________________________

GENERAL WRITTEN EXAMINATION FOR THE PH.D DEGREE
DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART I
June 4, 1956, 9-12 a.m.

Answer two questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Write an essay on the theory of capital. It should include a discussion of the place of capital theory in economic analysis: for what purposes, if any, we need such a theory, Do not omit theories or issues which were important in the history of doctrines, even if you should regard them as irrelevant for modern analysis.
  2. Discuss and compare the capital theories of Böhm-Bawerk, Wicksell, and Hayek.
  3. Write an essay on the theory of income distribution. Organize it carefully, as if it were designed for an article in the Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences. Include discussions of alternative theories such as imputation theories, residual theories, surplus value theories, etc.
Group II.
  1. The following statements attempt to show that marginal productivity theory is inconsistent with factual observation. Accepting the stated facts as given, discuss whether they call for the rejection or major modification of the theory. If so, how? If not, why not?
    1. “In the most important industries in the United States wage rates are set by collective bargaining and are largely determined by the bargaining strength of the parties. Marginal productivity of labor is neither calculated nor mentioned in the process.”
    2. “In many industries competition among employers for workers is so limited that most firms are able to pay less than the marginal productivity of labor.”
    3. “Workers in some trades — say, carpenters or bricklayers — work essentially the same way as their predecessors did fifty years ago; yet their real wages have increased greatly, probably not less than in occupations where productivity has improved considerably over the years.”
  2. The determination of first-class and second-class passenger fares for transatlantic ocean transportation involves problems of (a) joint or related cost, (b) related demand, and (c) discriminatory pricing. Discuss first in what ways these three phenomena are involved here; then formulate a research project to obtain the factual information required for an evaluation of the cost relationships and demand relationships prevailing in the case of two-class passenger ships; and finally state the criteria for judging whether the actual rate differential implies conscious discrimination in favor of first-class passengers, conscious discrimination against first-class passengers, wrong calculation and faulty reasoning on the part of the shipping lines, or any other reason which you may propose.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART II
June 4, 1956, 2-5 p.m.

Answer three questions, at least one from each group.

Group I.
  1. There is a running debate on the question whether trade unions are labor monopolies. This debate obviously turns on the meaning of monopoly and on what effects union have had on their members’ wages, output, and conditions of work. Give both sides of the argument.
  2. Write an essay on the demand for labor.
  3. Write down everything you know about the incidence of unemployment among various classes of workers and about the fluctuations of unemployment over time. Discuss some of the problems of developing a workable concept of unemployment. Indicate whether the statistical behavior of unemployment throws any light on its causation.
Group II.
  1. What is a “public utility”? According to accepted regulatory principles, how are the “proper” net earnings of a utility company determined? And, finally, what factors are considered in setting an “appropriate” rate structure?
  2. What is the major purpose of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act of 1890? What are some of the more significant problems in determining what constitutes “restraint of trade”? What tests would you apply? Why?
  3. Analyze the economic effects of a corporate income tax. Be as comprehensive as you can.
  4. What are flexible agricultural price supports? Explain how they are determined and applied. Evaluate their use in the light of reasonable alternatives.

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PART III
June 5, 1956, 9-12 a.m.

Answer three questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Describe briefly Schumpeter’s theory of economic development, and comment upon the possibility of testing it empirically.
  2. Describe briefly Keynes’ general theory of employment, interest and money; state its assumptions, structure, and conclusions; and evaluate it critically in the light of more recent theoretical and empirical findings.
Group II.
  1. What characteristics of economic cycles would you consider important in a statistical study of business cycles?
  2. In the study of long-term trends, what criteria would you use in constructing index numbers of production?
  3. What measures of economic growth of nations would you us? Consider carefully the various characteristics that you would deem indispensable in measurements of this sort.
Group III.
  1. Give a brief definition, explanation and illustration for each of the following:
    1. variance;
    2. confidence interval;
    3. coefficient of regression;
    4. coefficient of correlation;
    5. coefficient of determination;
    6. regression line.

[Note: Indicate where you have confined yourself to simple, linear correlation.]

  1. Write an essay on statistical inference by means of the following three techniques:
    1. chi square;
    2. analysis of variance;
    3. multiple regression.

Indicate the types of problem in which they are used, and how each type of problem is handled.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

PART IV
June 5, 1956, 2-5 p.m.

Answer four questions, one from each group.

Group I.
  1. Political arithmetic is a term that is applied to certain writings that appeared from roughly 1675 to 1800. What gave rise to such writings? What were the contributions of the different members of the “group”? Why should Political Arithmetic be given a terminal date?
  2. Discuss Quesnay’s Tableau Économique, Do you see in it anything of significance for the subsequent development of economic theory?
  3. Present arguments for the contention that J. B. Say was far more than “a mere disciple of Adam Smith”.
Group II.
  1. Discuss the relations between the English economic literature of the first half of the 19th century and the events, conditions, and general ideas of that time.
  2. Select three episodes in American economic history, and use your knowledge of economic theory to explain them.
Group III.
  1. Analyze the economic effects of a large Federal debt. Be as comprehensive as you can.
  2. At one time or another each of the following has been proposed as the proper objective or goal of monetary policy: (1) The stabilization of the quantity of money; (2) The maintenance of a constant level of prices; (3) The maintenance of full employment.
    Explain for each policy objective (a) what it means, that is, exactly what in “operational” terms might be maintained or stabilized; (b) how the objective could be achieved, that is, what techniques could be used to achieve it; and (a) the difficulties with or objections to the proposal.
  3. Irving Fisher and others have proposed that all bank be required to hold 100% reserves against their deposits. This was designed to prevent bank failures and, more important, to eliminate the perverse tendency of money to contract in recessions and expand in booms.
    Explain whether the proposal would have the effects claimed for it, and if so, why, and discuss what other effects it might have.
Group IV.
  1. Discuss the “law of comparative advantage” in international trade.
  2. Discuss “currency convertibility”.
  3. Discuss the “transfer problem”.
  4. Discuss the “optimum tariff”.
  5. Discuss the “foreign-trade multiplier”.
  6. Discuss alternative concepts of the “terms of trade”.
  7. Discuss the “effects of devaluation upon the balance of trade”.

*  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *

Source: Johns Hopkins University. Eisenhower Library. Ferdinand Hamburger, Jr. Archives. Department of Political Economy Series 5/6.  Box No. 6/1. Folder: “Comprehensive Exams for Ph.D. in Political Economy, 1947-1965”.

Image Source: Fritz Machlup in an economics seminar. Evsey Domar visible sitting third from the speaker on his right hand side. Johns Hopkins University Yearbook, Hullabaloo 1956, p. 15.