Categories
Economists NBER

NBER. Oral History Interviews with 8 researchers. Goldin, 2001-2003

The 2023 recipient of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, Professor Claudia Goldin of Harvard University, has contributed to the history of modern economics through her series of eight interviews with senior economists whose careers have been intrically woven into the historical fabric of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In other news, Professor Goldin has been named to the Economics in the Rear-view Mirror’s “Economists Wearing Jewelry” Hall of Fame.

______________________

Interview with Claudia Goldin (2004)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, The Region (September 1, 2004). Interviewer: Douglas Clement, editor.

______________________

Oral History Interviews with Claudia Goldin

Gary Becker (August 5, 2003)

Richard Easterlin  (March 15, 2002)

Milton Friedman (August 16, 2002)

Victor Fuchs (March 18, 2002)

Robert Lipsey (August 8, 2001)

Anna Schwartz (November 19, 2001)

Victor Zarnowitz (December 11, 2001)

Jacob Mincer  (July 26, 2002)

Cf. History page of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Categories
Economists Funny Business NBER

NBER. An Ode to Arthur F. Burns, sung to the tune of “Silver Dollar”, George Shultz, 1970

 

 

As I was paging through images of some documents I had examined a few years ago in the papers of Arthur F. Burns at Duke University’s Economists’ Papers Archive, I found an image of a sheet of paper with the following brief  “Ode to Arthur Burns.” It was typed (perhaps printed) in the lower left quadrant of a sheet of paper. As often happens to us archive rats, we find an interesting document but one that comes with no clear indication of either authorship or the circumstances surrounding the creation of the particular document.

I will admit that I liked the Ode because it captures the essence of the Schmoller-Menger Methodenstreit and its 20th century revival seen in the Koopmans-Burns-and-Mitchell controversy regarding the proper dosage of theory required for scientific economic measurement. Recall: Burns and Mitchell got burned pretty badly by Koopmans’ review of Measuring Business Cycles.

Moderation was to come to the Cowles Commission in its 1952 shift from its chosen motto “Science is Measurement” to “Theory and Measurement”. On the other side, the NBER has long become a lot more like the Cowles Commission of old than it has to its statistical-institutionalist ancestors of the first half of the 20thcentury.

The theory versus empirical split is analogous to the normative versus positive economics split recognized in the earliest methodological tracts of philosophically inclined economists. Working economists in the mainstream view themselves bathed in the flattering light of moderation along both methodological dimensions. Both-side-ism is not just a journalistic weakness. Those who work on the frontiers of human knowledge love striking an Aristotelian pose of reasonable moderation (don’t we all?).

But getting back to the issue of the authorship of the Ode and its larger context, let me identify the two suspects of Ode authorship swept up in my duly diligent Google search:

  • George P. Shultz (1920-2021): a 1949 M.I.T. Ph.D. alumnus in industrial economics, Dean of the Business School at the University of Chicago, and successively Secretary of Labor, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Secretary of the Treasury, and Secretary of State in Republican Administrations.
  • Edward Teller (1908-2003): the “father of the hydrogen bomb”, and if not Stanley Kubrick’s human model for Dr. Strangelove then a Doppelgänger to a second-order approximation. It is not altogether obvious how he could possibly fit into the picture.

So Whodunnit? We begin at the scene of the literary crime.

__________________________

Ode to Arthur Burns

A fact without a theory
Is like a ship without a sail,
Is like a boat without a rudder,
Is like a kite without a tail.

A fact without a theory
Is as sad as sad can be
But, if there’s one thing worse
In this universe,
It’s a theory without a fact.”

Source: Duke University, David M. Rubinstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Arthur F. Burns Papers. Box 6, Folder “Other papers 1926-1987 (1 of 2)”,

__________________________

Sometimes it just turns out that you get lucky with a Google search using just a snip of a quotation. George Shultz was reported to be the author of lyrics that he sang to “the lively tune of Silver Dollar”. This title meant nothing to me. But before turning to the further power of the internet, let us enter the relevant portion of the Time magazine profile of George Shultz with its lede that takes the reader back to a “VIP-stacked Manhattan dinner”, ca. 1970. We note minor differences in the middle of the second stanza but it seems likely that at the latest the Ode was performed in 1970.

The Economy:
Another Professor with Power

CONCLUDING a speech on economic policy at a VIP-stacked Manhattan dinner three years ago, George Shultz startled the audience by abruptly breaking into song. To the lively tune of Silver Dollar, the then director of the Office of Management and Budget [sic, he was Secretary of Labor at the NBER dinner in 1970] belted forth in full voice:

A fact without a theory
Is like a ship without a sail,
Is like a boat without a rudder,
Is like a kite without a tail.

 

A fact without a figure
Is a tragic final act,
But one thing worse
In this universe
Is a theory without a fact.

Shultz is seldom short on either fact or theory, although the softspoken, smooth-faced economist seldom expresses his ideas in song. His quick grasp of facts and theories, his skill in persuading the federal bureaucracy to act on them—plus an ironclad loyalty to the President—are the qualities that have prompted Richard Nixon to keep investing his Treasury Secretary with added clout. By now Shultz has become one of the two or three most powerful men in Washington….

Source: Time Magazine. Monday, Feb. 26, 1973.

__________________________

This evidence was enough to get me to take a deeper dive into another folder in Burns’ papers at Duke where I had found a copy of the pamphlet that was prepared as memorial to Arthur F. Burns after his death with brief tributes from President Ronald Reagan, Rabbi Joshua Haberman, Milton Friedman, Senator Pete Domenici, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, Secretary of State George Shultz, and former Presidents Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon.

In his tribute George Shultz clearly staked a claim of authorship to the Ode to Arthur Burns. 

George P. Shultz

O’Bie [nickname of George Shultz’s wife, née O’Brien] and I have a wonderful friend in Arthur Burns. We have lost him, but his influence and example live on with us. As Arthur Burns has touched and enriched our lives as individuals, so he has left our country an enduring legacy of scholarship and statesmanship.

Arthur lived according to deeply held values, both moral and intellectual. There was never a more devoted, or a more effective, defender of democratic freedoms — political and economic, and also intellectual — than soft-spoken Arthur Burns.

Arthur’s scholarship was truly of Biblical scope. Helmut Schmidt called him the Pope of Economics. But he was also a great student of the bible, and he lived by the values he found in the Scriptures. Arthur believed in learning, in work, in service, in personal discipline. He thrived on the creative tension between an idea and its application. His legendary tolerance for debate and discussion was a measure of his rigorous respect for intellectual integrity. This same respect for human intelligence also meant that Arthur suffered no fools gladly.

Facts held a fascination for him that no grand theories could match. He insisted that statements be meticulously accurate. He believed that theories, like his beloved New England houses should stand four-square on a solid foundation of facts.

Arthur suspected that someone who was careless with facts was likely to be careless in thought and unsound in judgment. For a dinner in his honor years ago. I wrote words to an old tune to describe this attitude of his:

(Sung)

A fact without a theory is as sad as sad can be.
But if there’s one thing worse
In this universe,
It’s a theory without a fact.

This combination of intellectual and moral values, an insatiable capacity for disciplined work, and an ability to bridge the distance between concept and reality gave Arthur Burns a tremendous force of personality. When convinced of something Arthur was more powerful in his advocacy than just about anyone I have known. But convinced he had to be. Ever the student, Arthur was the first to admit when he didn’t know something and the first to seek out an answer.

I remember seeing Arthur in Germany in 1982, not long after his arrival as ambassador. He was already in his late seventies; yet, like a kid with a new toy, he was determined to master the German language and to understand the society and the economy. Master them he did, during a period of special challenge for our bilateral relations and for the NATO alliance. He never stopped learning. That’s why his life was so full.

Arthur is now mourned on both sides of the Atlantic on both sides of the aisle, in government, in business, in finance in academia. For years to come, Presidents and professors, Secretaries of State, and students of economics, even Governors of the Federal Reserve, will continue to learn from Arthur Burns, through the enduring force of his intellectual legacy.

We — his family, friends, colleagues — have had the great joy and privilege of knowing Arthur, the man. We will miss his infectious curiosity. We will miss his kindness. We will miss his counsel, his candor and his integrity. And, we will carry him in our hearts always.

Source: Duke University, David M. Rubinstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Arthur F. Burns Papers. Box 6, Folder “Memorial and remembrances, 1987-2003”, pp. 19-20.

__________________________

50th Anniversary Celebration
of NBER

The New York Times (March 2, 1970 p. 55 ) reported a dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel to honor the 50thanniversary of the National Bureau of Economic Research where both Arthur F. Burns (chairman of the Federal Reserve Board) and George P. Shultz (Secretary of Labor) were in attendance.  

THE HONORABLE GEORGE P. SHULTZ…now let me talk for a moment about Burns’ Laws, and here I’m talking to the Federal Reserve Board staff, of course. (Laughter)

Well! First, all calculations must be checked at least twice, independently.

Second, we must develop measurements of all the key variables. Be sure they’re as good as possible, and understand their strengths and limitations.

Third, always identify the logical structure of the argument, and if it has none, discount it and him. (Laughter)

Fourth, be willing to live with ambiguity, have patience, suspend judgment, wait for the facts to come in.

Fifth, certainly don’t be satisfied with examination of the aggregates. Look below the aggregates and the over-all movement of the figures; at the components, as certainly the components may be the most revealing, let alone appealing.

An finally, it’s important to examine the facts, and as Professor Leontief stated, to have a good conception for the relationship of the facts to the theory.

And so I would like to close with a little song, which I will try to sing to you. And this is by way of a sort of a ballad for Arthur Burns, and it’s my nomination for the alma mater, at least for the old National Bureau, if not for the new, and the theme song for the new Federal Reserve Board. And I’ll tell you I’ll give it a riffle through the first vers, and then I expect especially the head table, which has some briefing, to at least join me on the second, but I expect all of you to join me, too.

Ready? (Laughter)

A fact without a theory,
Is like a ship without a sail,
Is like a boat without a rudder,
Is like a kite without a tail!

A fact without a theory
Is like a tragic final act.
But if there’s one thing worse
In this universe
It’s a theory—I said a theory—I mean a theory—
Without a fact! (Laughter and applause)

[…]

THE HONORABLE ARTHUR F. BURNS: …And then I heard George sing a song, second time I heard it, and I’m puzzled. I asked George, sitting beside him, what would be the subject of his address tonight? And he mumbled, oh, something about guidelines. I said, “Oh no, you ought to sing that song, George.” Now I don’t know whether I inspired George to sing that song or whether the thought occurred to him independently. Somehow George and I have been on the same wavelength for so long, that though communicated itself from one to the other….

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research. Fiftieth Anniversary Dinner: Transcript of Proceedings, A Supplement to National Bureau Report 6 (June 1970) p. 20, 25.

__________________________

Handwritten copy of the Ode in Edward Teller’s desk
on White House stationery.

One shouldn’t think that the issue of authorship of the Ode would be a slam-dunk affair. Actually the first lead Google provided me was to an article in Hungarian (!) about the poetry (I am not making this up) of the nuclear physicist Edward Teller.

Having no reason to doubt Google’s translation of the Hungarian text, I learned that after the death of Edward Teller “a small note was found in a drawer.” An image of a handwritten note on White House stationery (without a date) was included and is provided below.

Source: Nyomhagyók Rovat, “Gyönyörködni titkos, mély harmóniákban” Teller Ede versei. Ponticulus Hungaricus, XXIII. évfolyam 12. szám ·2019. December.

This handwritten text bears more than a passing resemblance to the Ode found in Burns’ papers at Duke as well as the NBER version of the Ballad for Burns above. The second and fourth lines of the second stanza differ significantly. It is not unusual for songs and covers of songs to display variations after all. The author of the Hungarian article claimed/suggested the English original had been composed by Edward Teller.

Perhaps some kind visitor to Economics in the Rear-view Mirror  has easy access to Edward Teller’s and/or George Shultz’s handwriting to make a determination of the identity of the above scribe in the White House. But even if the note should turn out to be written in Teller’s hand, it does not exclude the possibility that he just copied the verses he heard or read.

In any event it seems to me less likely that Shultz would have plagiarized from Teller than Teller would have instead kept a copy for himself. Besides, Schultz had significantly more opportunity to jot down notes on a White House memo pad than Teller did. This doesn’t take away from the mystery of how this alternate Ode came to Teller’s desk. 

My final forensic note is that Teller was the sort of Central European intellectual who moved from home to home with a Steinway piano throughout his life compared to George Shultz who was a veteran of the U.S. Marines known to have a Princeton tiger tattooed on his (ahem) butt cheek. Which of the two men seems more likely to have recalled the words from a hit single in the early 1950s that covered a 1907 recording? 

__________________________

Which recording served as inspiration to George Shultz?

There are numerous interpretations recorded of Silver Dollar. The Website SecondHandSongs displays 32 versions.

Fun fact: Petula Clark, singer of the Hit “Downtown” (1964), also covered Silver Dollar in December 1950!

But for my silver dollar, the closest variation to the Shultz version is found in a 78 rpm record released in 1950.

Silver Dollar by Clancy Hayes
and his Washboard Five

A man without a woman is like a ship without a sail,
Like a boat without a rudder, just like a kite without a tail.
Yes, a man without a woman is the saddest thing what am.
But if there’s one thing worse in this universe,
It’s a woman without a man! […]

Image Source: Time Magazine cover August 16, 1971.

 

Categories
Economists Gender Harvard NBER Radcliffe Smith Vassar

Radcliffe.Economics Ph.D. Alumna, Dorothy Carolin Bacon, 1928

 

This post began after I noticed that it has been some time since I posted biographical and career information for a economics Ph.D. alumna. I figured it would be good to search for a candidate that Economics in the Rear-view Mirror has already caught in an earlier archival trawling expedition but for whom the details of post-doc life had not been added. Dorothy Carolin Bacon was awarded her Radcliffe economics Ph.D. in 1928 and the following item was what I had to start with.

Dorothy Carolin Bacon.

General Examination in Economics, Thursday, May 26, 1927.
Committee: Professors Persons (chairman), Carver, Crum, Gay and Holcombe.
Academic History: Simmons College, 1918-19; Radcliffe College, 1919-22, 1923-24, 1926-. A.B., Radcliffe, 1922; A.M., ibid., 1924. Assistant in Economics, Vassar College, 1924-25. Instructor in Economics, ibid., 1925-26.
General Subjects: 1. Economic Theory. 2. Sociology. 3. History of Political Theory. 4. Statistics. 5. Economic History. 6., Money, Banking and Crises.
Special Subject: Money, Banking and Crises.
Thesis Subject: A Study of the Dispersion of Wholesale Commodity Prices, 1890-1896.  (With Professor Persons.)

Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University, Examinations for the Ph.D. (HUC 7000.70), Folder “Examinations for the Ph.D., 1926-1927”.

________________________

One of the items that came up after searching for a Google search was an advertisement for her handwritten Radcliffe student journal notes from her Physics course in 1922. Besides being surprised to see a list price of $750.00 for this notebook, I was intrigued by the relatively detailed information provided about Dorothy Bacon. While everything about the text struck me as fully plausible, I thought it worth some due diligence to confirm what I could from the bookseller’s bio-blurb. I have added links wherever possible to sources that confirm the details below. It would appear that information from the above item in Economics in the Rear-view Mirror as well as from the Dzuback chapters in Madden and Dimand (eds.)  and Margaret A. Nash (ed.) have provided some (or even much) of what was included in the D. Anthem advertisement that follows.

The section on Smith College in Mary Ann Dzuback’s chapter “Women economists in the academy: struggles and strategies, 1900-1940” in the Routledge Handbook of the History of Women’s Economic Thought, Kirsten Madden and Robert W. Dimand (eds.) provides information on Dorothy Bacon from the faculty files of the Smith College Archives [Office of President William Allan Neilson Files, Box 364, Folder 34]:

Bacon came to Smith a year before finishing her Ph.D. at Radcliffe in 1928. She took research and service sabbatical leaves to work for the Works Progress Administration and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in the 1930s. She focused her research on money flows during the 1930s, cost price problems, and the development of federal level credit institutions. By the 1940s, she was working with the federal Office of Price Administration. By the 1950s, she was consulting with the Brookings Institution, had been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and received grants from the SSRC. She published a monograph on the recent economic history of five towns around Northampton, Massachusetts, in the late 1930s, and was completing a book on the development of Philippine credit institutions by 1970.

________________________

Another paragraph by Mary Ann Dzuback

From: Mary Ann Dzuback. Chapter 7. Research at Women’s Colleges, 1890-1940. Women’s Higher Education in the United States (Historical Studies in Education), edited by Margaret A. Nash. Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.

Dorothy Bacon (1927–54) arrived in 1928, eventually taking an endowed chair. She investigated the flows of currency during the Depression, cost price problems, and the growth of credit institutions, and was in great demand by private research agencies and the federal government. A sometime consultant with the National Bureau of Economic Research, in the 1920s and 1930s she worked with a range of government and research agencies. She was awarded grants by the Social Science Research Council and published regularly. Bacon’s record of research and service, and her sabbaticals, suggest that women social science scholars at Smith were encouraged to use their research to inform policy at the federal and international levels.

________________________

From: Advertisement for “Economist Dorothy Bacon’s 1922 Physics 2 Journal from Radcliffe College (1922)

Dorothy Carolin Bacon was born in 1902 to George Preston Bacon, a professor of Physics and Dean of both the Tufts Engineering School and the Bromfield-Pearson School, and Hannah Churchill Bacon, a trained nurse. Her sister, Ruth Bacon, also attended Radcliffe College and later became the first female officer of a State Department geographical bureau (Bureau of Eastern Affairs). Bacon attended Simmons College from 1918-19 before transferring to Radcliffe, the former women’s liberal arts college that fully merged with Harvard in 1999. She earned her B.A. (1922), M.A. (1924) and Ph.D (1927) [sic, 1928] there with her dissertation concerning A Study of the Dispersion of Wholesale Commodity Prices, 1890-1896. While at Radcliffe she also worked for the Federal Reserve Board’s Division of Research and Analysis [as a Statistical Clerk starting 1 July 1922earning an annual salary of $1600 before resigning [May 10] in 1923.

She was hired as an assistant professor [sic, “Assistant” is a lower rank than “Assistant Professor”] in economics at Vassar in 1924 [cf. AER, Vol. 14, No. 4 (Dec. 1924), p. 829 “Miss Dorothy C. Bacon is assistant in economics at Vassar College.”], but was recruited by Esther Lowenthal, Dean of the Faculty and chair of the economics department at Smith, to join Smith’s faculty in 1927. At Smith she focused her research on money flows during the 1930s, cost price problems, and the development of credit institutions at the federal level. In 1930, she was one of three research associates selected for the National Bureau of Economic Research where she studied the relation of current stock prices to earnings per share from the twenty corporations comprising the Index of Industrial Stock Prices of the Harvard Economic Service. Her monograph, Recent Economic History of the Five Towns (1937) was published by the Works Progress Administration. In 1942, Bacon left her post at Smith [sic, only temporary leave] to work under Leon Henderson at the Office of Price Administration. It was there that she wrote a study of the scrap metal market in Syracuse, NY. By the 1950s, she was consulting with the Brookings Institution and was publishing her research in the Review of Economic Statistics, the Journal of the American Statistical Association and the National Encyclopedia. She appears to have never married [she wasn’t]  and when she died in 1998 she was buried at Shawsheen Cemetery in Bedford, MA, alongside her parents and sister.

Source: D. Anthem, Bookseller advertisement for “Economist Dorothy Bacon’s 1922 Physics 2 Journal from Radcliffe College (1922) [posted price: $750.00!]

________________________

A.E.A. Biographical Listing, 1969

BACON, Dorothy Carolin, academic; b. Beloit, Wis., 1902; student Simmons Coll., 1918-19; A.B., Radcliffe Coll., 1922, A.M., 1924, Ph.D., 1928. FIELDS 2c, 5e, 4a. Research asso., Nat. Bur. Econ. Research, 1930-31; formerly sr. research asso., Fed. Deposit Ins. Corp.; fed. Dir. Research project, Work Progress Adm., 1935-36; asst. div. economist, food price div., OPA [Office of Price Administration], 1943-47, OPS [Office of Price Stabilization], 1951; Fulbright prof., U. Philippines, 1956-57; mem. Faculty, Smith Coll. Since 1927, prof. since 1938, Robert A. Woods prof. since 1956. ADDRESS Smith Coll., 115 Elm St., Northampton, MA 01060.

Note. Fields: 2c (Economic Development Studies); 5e (General International Economics); 4a (Monetary and Financial Theory and Institutions).

SourceThe American Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 6, 1969. Handbook of the American Economic Association (January 1970), p. 17.

________________________

Bachelor of Arts, Radcliffe (1922)

With Distinction in Special Subjects
Cum Laude

Dorothy Carolin Bacon [of] Medford. In Mathematics.

Source: Report of the Dean in Annual Report of Radcliffe College for 1920-1923, p. 43.

________________________

Master of Arts, Radcliffe (1924)

Dorothy Carolin Bacon, A.B.

Source: Report of the Dean in Annual Report of Radcliffe College for 1923-1924, p. 31.

________________________

Doctor of Philosophy, Radcliffe (1928)

Dorothy Carolin Bacon A.M.

Subject, Economics. Special Field, Money and Banking. Dissertation, “Maladjustment of Prices with Special Reference to the Wholesale Prices of Commodities in the United States; 1890-1896”

Source:  Report of the Dean in Annual Reports of Radcliffe College for 1927-1928, p. 23.

________________________

Publications of Dorothy C. Bacon

A Monthly Index of Commodity Prices, 1890-1900. Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 8, No. 4 (October 1926), pp. 177-83.

The Significance of Fixed-base and Link Relatives in Studies of Price Stability: A Comment on the Behavior of Prices. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 23 (September 1928), pp. 274-81.

Maladjustment of Prices with Special Reference to the Wholesale Prices of Commodities in the United States, 1890-1896. Ph.D. thesis, Radcliffe College.

Encyclopedia articles in the National Encyclopedia.

Recent Economic History of Five Towns. Northampton, Mass.: Smith College, 1937.

________________________

Vital Dates and Miscellaneous Information

Born:  25 February 1902 in Beloit, Wisconsin.

Last Residence: Niceville, Okaloosa, Florida [Socal Security death index].

Died: 8 November in Meriden, New Haven County, Connecticut. [Apparently visiting: the Connecticut Death Index notes her address 2475 Virginia, Residence Andover, District of Columbia].

________________________

Image Source: Senior year picture of Dorothy Carolin Bacon in the  Radcliffe Year Book 1922, p. 23.

 

 

 

Categories
Columbia Economists NBER

Columbia Alumnus Arthur F. Burns applies to NBER for Research Associateship, 1930

 

 

Arthur F. Burns was twenty-five years old when he submitted the following application for a Research Associate position that provided 11 months funding at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Results from this project would be ultimately incorporated into Burns’ doctoral dissertation published as the NBER monograph Production Trends in the United States Since 1870 (1934).

_____________________

Arthur F. Burns’ late NBER application forwarded to Edwin Gay

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

February 25, 1930

Dr. Edwin F. Gay
117 Widener Library
Harvard University
Cambridge, Mass.

Dear Dr. Gay:

The attached application of Mr. Arthur Frank Burns has just been received. Athough the time limit has passed, you might wish to consider it, and I am therefore forwarding it to you.

Yours very truly,
[signed] G. R. Stahl
Executive Secretary

GRS:RD

[handwritten note]
[Frederick C.] Mills knows something about this man and regards him favorably.

_____________________

NBER Research Associate Application of Arthur F. Burns
(February, 1930)

National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

51 Madison Avenue
New York

RESEARCH ASSOCIATES’ APPLICATION FORM

Applications and accompanying documents should be sent by registered mail and must reach Directors of Research not later than February 1, 1930. Six typewritten copies (legible carbons) should accompany each formal application.

Candidates should have familiarized themselves with the main objects and work of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Candidates are expected to be in good health, free from physical or nervous troubles, and able to complete their work in New York without predictable interruption.

Research Associates will not accept other remunerative employment while connected with the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Candidates’ names should be written plainly on each manuscript.

Title of Project

A Study of Long-Time Indexes of Production

Name of Candidate

Arthur Frank Burns

Date of Application

February 21, 1930

 

THE CANDIDATE

PERSONAL HISTORY:

Name in full: Arthur Frank Burns
Home address: 34 Bethune St., New York City
Present occupation: University teaching
Place of birth: Stanislawow, Poland
Date of birth: April 27, 1904
If not a native-born citizen, date and place of naturalization: About 1920; Bayonne, New Jersey
Single, married: Married
Name and address of wife or husband: Helen, 34 Bethune Street
Name and address of nearest kin if unmarried: [blank]
Number, relationship, and ages of dependents: [blank]

Name the colleges and universities you have attended; length of residence in each; also major and minor studies pursued.

Columbia College, Sept. 1921-Feb. 1925. Majors—Economics, German. Minors—English, History
Columbia University, Feb. 1925-June 1927. Major—Economics. Minor—Statistics.

List the degrees you have received with the years in which they were conferred.

B.A.—Feb. 1925
M.A.—Oct. 1925

Give a list of scholarships or fellowships previously held or now held, stating in each case place and period of tenure, studies pursued and amount of stipend:

Columbia College Scholarship, 1921-1924. $250 per annum
Gilder Fellowship, Academic Year 1926-1927, Columbia University. Stipend $1200. Chief study pursued—Monetary Theory

What foreign languages are you able to use?

French and German

 

ACCOMPLISHMENTS:

Give a list of positions you have held—professional, teaching, scientific, administrative, business:

Name of Institution

Title of Position

Years of Tenure

Columbia University

Instructor in Extension

Feb. 1926-June 1927

Soc. Science Res. Co.

Report on Periodicals Summer of 1927
Rutgers University Instructor

1927 to date

Of what learned or scientific societies are you a member?

Phi Beta Kappa
American Statistical Society

Describe briefly the advanced work and research you have already done in this country or abroad, giving dates, subjects, and names of your principal teachers in these subjects:

Master’s essay on Employment Statistics, under Professors F.A. Ross and W.C. Mitchell, in 1925
Studies in the field of Business Cycles, under Professor W.C. Mitchell, 1926 to date
Studies in the field of Monetary Theory, under Professors Mitchell and Willis, 1926-1927
Work on Negro Migration, under Professor F.A. Ross, Summer of 1925
Work on Instalment Selling, under Professor E.R.A. Seligman, Summer of 1926
Report on Social Science Periodicals for the Social Science Research  Council, under Professor F. Stuart Chapin, Summer of 1927.

Submit a list of your publications with exact titles, names of publishers and dates and places of publication:

See separate sheet on publications

THE PROJECT

PLANS FOR STUDY:

Submit a statement (six copies) giving detailed plans for the study you would pursue during your tenure of an Associateship. This statement should include:

(1) A description of the project including its character and scope, and the significance of its presumable contribution to knowledge. Describe how the inquiry is to be conducted, major expected sources of information, etc.
(2) The present state of the project, time of commencement, progress to date, and expectation as to completion.
(3) A proposed budget showing the amount of any assistance, whether of a statistical or clerical nature, or traveling expense that you would require to complete your project.

REFERENCES:

Submit a list of references

(1) from whom information may be obtained concerning your qualifications, and
(2) from whom expert opinion may be obtained as to the value and practicability of your proposed studies.

_____________________

Arthur F. Burns

THE PROJECT
A Study of Long-Time Indexes of Production

            Several years ago I embarked upon an inquiry into the broad problem “The Relationship between ‘Price’ and ‘Trade’ Fluctuations.” The study had two main purposes: (1) to provide a systematic description and analysis of one structural element of the “business cycle,” (2) to determine and appraise the empirical basis for the widely held view that “business stability” may be attained through the “stabilization of the price level.” But soon enough I found it difficult to adhere to the project that I had formulated. The task in the course of execution in the statistical laboratory loomed more formidable than in the “arm-chair” in which it found its inception. But another circumstance proved even more compelling in bring about a restriction of the area of the investigation: no sooner was a small segment of the plan that served as my procedural guide completed, but a host of new queries, not at all envisaged in the original plan, arose and pressed for an answer. Thus, impelled by considerations of a practical sort—working as I did single-handed, and by a growing curiosity, I subjected the project to successive reductions of scope. The present project, “A Study of Long-Time Indexes of Production,” is the untouched, and perhaps an unrecognizable, remainder of the original inquiry. On this limited project I have been at work intermittently for about a year and a half.

            The object of the present project is to study the “secular changes” in “general production” in the United States, and thereby throw light on one important constituent aspect of the trend of “economic welfare.” The establishment of a theory of secular change in general production calls, in the main, for the performance of two tasks. In the first place, the rate of growth of the physical volume of production and its variation have to be determined. In the second place, the empirical generalizations so arrived at have to be interpreted. The general plan of the investigation is built around these two problems; but to perform these tasks adequately, a host of subsidiary problems have to be met.

            Some details of the organization of the project, as well as the point to which work on the project has been carried thus far, may best be indicated by setting forth the extent to which the tentative individual chapters have been completed. The first chapter treats of the contents of the concept “economic welfare,” and traces, analytically and historically, problems in the measurement thereof; this chapter is practically finished. The materials for the second chapter, which is devoted to the history of production indexes, have, for the greater part, already been collected; and a preliminary draft of the chapter has been completed. Much of the third chapter, which is concerned with an analysis of a conceptually ideal measure of the physical volume of production, and the special bearing of this analysis on long-time indexes of production, is written; this chapter is to be but an extension of the paper on “The Measurement of the Physical Volume of Production,” which was published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 1930. In the fourth chapter, an analysis of the available long-time indexes of production is made; this chapter covers a much more extensive area than the brief reference to it may lead one to suppose; and though several months of continuous work have already been devoted to it, considerable literary research and statistical routine remain. The fifth and six chapters will present the results of the computations on the rate of secular change in physical production; though much ground has been covered (over one hundred trends have already been determined), even more remains to be done. Of the next and final two chapters, in which an interpretation of the computed results is to be offered, very little has been put into written form; but a substantial body of literature has been abstracted; and a preliminary outline of some portions of the theory to be presented, now that many of the calculations are completed, has been worked out.

            It will be apparent from this statement of the work already done on the project that it has reached a point where completion by the middle of 1931 may well be expected. In fact, the freedom to pursue the investigation unencumbered by academic duties may make possible a more intensive cultivation of the demarcated field than is presently contemplated; or, if it be deemed advisable, an extension of the investigation, now confined to the United States, to several other countries for which what appear to be reasonably satisfactory materials have of late become available.

            Needless to say, the above statement of the project constitutes no more than a report on its present status. There probably will be modifications of some importance. One change, in fact, is now being seriously considered: the replacement of Chapters II and III by a brief section, to be worked into the introductory chapter, to the end that a nicer balance between the divisions on, what may be described as, “data and method” and “results” be achieved.

            In continuing with this study there will be no travelling expenses to speak of. At the most, there will be a trip or two to Washington. It goes without saying that the study will proceed more rapidly if clerical assistance is had. Only a single statistical clerk would be needed, and a halftime clerk might suffice.

_____________________

Arthur F. Burns

References

Group I

Professor Robert E. Chaddock, Columbia University
Professor Wesley C. Mitchell, Columbia University
Professor H. Parker Willis, Columbia University
Professor Eugene E. Agger, Rutgers University
Professor Frank W. Taussig, Harvard University

Group II

Professor Wesley C. Mitchell, Columbia University
Professor Wilford I. King, New York University
Mr. Carl Snyder, New York Federal Reserve Bank
Dr. Edmund E. Day, Social Science Research Council
Dr. Simon Kuznets, National Bureau of Economic Research

_____________________

Arthur F. Burns

Publications

A Note on Comparative Costs, Quarterly Journal of Economics, May, 1928

The Duration of Business Cycles, Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1929

The Geometric Mean of Percentages, Journal of the American Statistical Association, September, 1929

The Ideology of Businessmen and Presidential Elections, Southwestern Political and Social Science Quarterly, September, 1929.

Thus Spake the Professor of Statistics, Social Science, November, 1929

The Quantity Theory and Price Stabilization, American Economic Review, December, 1929

The Relative Importance of Check and Cash Payments in the United States: 1919-1928, Journal of the American Statistical Association, December, 1929

The Measurement of the Physical Volume of Production, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February, 1930

_____________________

Reference Letter:  H. P. Willis

Columbia University
in the City of New York
School of Business

February 27, 1930.

Mr. G. R. Stahl,
Executive Secretary,
National Bureau of Economic Research,
51 Madison Avenue,
New York City.

My dear Mr. Stahl:

            I have received your letter of February 26. Mr. Arthur F. Burns, whom you mention, was a student here some years ago, passed his doctorate examination with money and banking as one of his topics. I had general supervision of his work in money and banking and also came into contact with him individually now and then. I thought him a specially acute and capable student of the subject and it seemed to me that he had rather unusual research ability. He has been teaching, I believe, at Rutgers University for a couple of years past and during that time he has occasionally written articles in the scientific magazines and has sent me copies. I have read them with substantial interest and have thought that they showed steady growth in the grasp of the subject and in ability to present it.

            I do not know exactly what kind of work you would be disposed to assign him in your bureau were you to appoint him, and hence it is difficult for me to give specific opinion of his “strong and weak points”, for strength and weakness are relative to the work to be done. I should suppose that in a statistical research relating to monetary and banking questions, and particularly to the price problem, Mr. Burns would be decidedly capable. I do not think of any elements of corresponding weakness that need to be emphasized, but perhaps you might find him less devoted to the necessary routine work that has to done in every statistical office, than you would to the planning of investigation and the initiation of inquiries in it. Put in another was this might be equivalent to saying that Mr. Burns is perhaps stronger in conception and planning than he is in execution and yet I do not know that he is in any way to be criticized for his power of execution. I simply mean that he does not seem to be as outstanding in that direction as he is in the other.

            I, however, commend him unreservedly to you as a capable man in connection with price, banking and credit research.

Yours very truly,
[signed] H. P. Willis

HPW:S

_____________________

Reference Letter:  Willford I. King

AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION

Secretary-Treasurer
Willford I. King
530 Commerce Building, New York Univ.
236 Wooster Street, New York City

February 27, 1930.

Mr. G. R. Stahl,
National Bureau of Economic Research,
51 Madison Avenue,
New York City.

Dear Mr. Stahl:

            I have met Mr. Arthur F. Burns two or three times but do not know very much about his record. One thing, however, stands out strongly in his favor. He recently published in the AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW a very fine piece of work on the equation of exchange. This indicates to me that he is competent to do research work of high quality.

Cordially yours,
Willford I. King.

WIK:RW

_____________________

Reference Letter: F. W. Taussig

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

Cambridge, Massachusetts
February 28, 1930

Dear Mr. Stahl:

            I have a high opinion of A. F. Burns. I have watched his published work, and some I have examined with care. As will be noted, he has an article in the current issue of the Quarterly Journal of Economics which I consider first-rate. He is a keen critic, and handles figures well. He writes more than acceptably, and in my judgment gives promise of very good work in the future. You will have to go far to find a man clearly better.

Very truly yours,
[signed] F. W. Taussig

Mr. G. R. Stahl
National Bureau of Economic Research
51 Madison Avenue
New York City

_____________________

Reference Letter:  E. E. Agger

Rutgers University
New Brunswick, New Jersey
Department of Economics

March 5, 1930

Mr. G. R. Stahl,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
51 Madison Avenue,
New York City

Dear Mr. Stahl:

            Replying to your letter of February 26th I may say that I have known Mr. Arthur F. Burns ever since his undergraduate days. He was one of my honor students when I was at Columbia and when he finished his graduate work I brought him to Rutgers as an Instructor. I think that he will be promoted to an Assistant Professorship next year.

            He has been a specialist in the field of Statistics and Economic Theory and would therefore, in my judgment, be ideally equipped for the post of Research Associate. He is meticulously careful and most painstaking. You are doubtless familiar with some of his writings during the past year or so. They have seemed to me excellent pieces of work. We shall sorely miss him should he ask for leave to accept possible appointment under you, but on the other hand, I believe that in the end it will add to his value to us, at the same time that you are getting the use of his services. In short, I recommend him without qualification.

Sincerely yours,
[Signed] E.E. Agger

EEA:H

_____________________

Reference Letter:  Carl Snyder

COPY
Thirty Three Liberty Street
New York

March 5, 1930

Dear Mr. Stahl:

            I have followed the work of Arthur F. Burns, of whom you wrote, with a great deal of interest. It seems to me careful, conscientious, well-planned work. He has the inquisitive mind, and that is the great thing. His ideas seem to me sound and his statistical methods well grounded.

            The problem in which he is interested is one in which we have done a great deal of work here, and I know of nothing of greater importance. I wish very cordially to endorse the recommendation for his appointment as a Research Associate.

Please believe me, with very best regards,

Sincerely yours,
Carl Snyder

Gustav R. Stahl, Esq.,
National Bureau of Economic Research
51 Madison Avenue, New York City

_____________________

Reference Letter:  Simon Kuznets

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
51 Madison Avenue, New York

March 3, 1930

Committee on Selection,
National Bureau of Economic Research
51 Madison Avenue,
New York City

Gentlemen:

            Arthur F. Burns who is applying for appointment as a Research Associate is my former classmate from Columbia University, and has always impressed me by his keen powers of observation and analysis. His work speaks for itself, for he has had opportunity to publish some of the by-products of his doctor’s thesis in the form of articles.

            He has a thorough statistical training, both in theory and in technique, for he has studied statistics, taught it, and applied its principles. He is also thoroughly versed in economic theory, having studied it under Professors W. C. Mitchell and H. L. Moore.

            On the whole, Mr. Burns is a candidate of high promise. He is still quite young in years, but is quite experienced in research work. He ought to prove equal to the opportunities which an appointment as a research associate will provide for him.

Yours respectfully
[signed] Simon Kuznets
[Research Staff member, NBER]

_____________________

Reference Letter:  Robert E. Chaddock

Columbia University
in the City of New York
Faculty of Political Science

March 3, 1930.

Mr. G. R. Stahl, Executive Secretary
National Bureau of Economic Research
51 Madison Avenue, New York City

Dear Mr. Stahl,

            I have expressed my opinion as to the qualifications of Cowden, Gayzer and Leong as candidates for Research Associate. Mr. Arthur F. Burns is superior to any of these in qualifications for research, in my opinion. All his inclinations and his critical attitude toward his own and the results of others point to research as his field. He has unusual technical preparation in Statistics and does not lose sight of the logical tests of his knowledge. He has been publishing articles constantly since entering upon his teaching at Rutgers University where he is successful as a teacher so far as I know. I would not rate him ahead of the candidates I have described before in matters of personality and personal contact, but I do regard him as a very superior candidate in respect to qualifications for research and scholarly productivity.

Sincerely yours,
[signed] Robert E. Chaddock

REC:CT

_____________________

Letter:  Edwin F. Gay to Arthur F. Burns

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
51 Madison Avenue, New York

June 25, 1930

Mr. A. F. Burns
34 Bethune Street
New York City

My dear Mr. Burns:

            At a recent meeting of the Executive Committee of the National Bureau it was decided that since all the members of the regular staff are not available until the end of September, the Research Associates should be asked to report here on October 1, 1930, instead of September 15. You may, of course, come earlier but full provision for your work cannot conveniently be made before the date indicated. The stipends of the Research Associates are to run from October 1, and also the salaries of such statistical assistants as are designated for the service of the Research Associates.

            Upon your arrival you are to report to Dr. Frederick C. Mills, who will have direct responsibility as your adviser. You will be free, of course, to consult with any of the members of the staff.

            In regard to arrangements for statistical and other assistance, you will consult with Mr. Pierce Williams, the Executive Director.

            It gives me great pleasure, in behalf of the directors and staff of the National Bureau, to welcome you as a research associate. We trust that you will find the eleven months with us not only scientifically profitable but personally enjoyable.

Sincerely yours,
[signed] Edwin F. Gay]
Director of Research

RD

[handwritten note] P.S In looking over your application, I [word illegible] certain [items?] which I think should be filled out. These are: the date of arrival in this country, precise date of naturalization; pre-college education.

Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Arthur F. Burns Papers, Box 2, Folder “Correspondence/NBER, 1930”.  IMG_8329.JPG

Image Source: Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Arthur F. Burns Papers, Box 6. Folder “Photographs, B&W I”. Note: “1930s” written on back of photograph.

 

Categories
Columbia Economists NBER Swarthmore

Columbia. Economics PhD alumnus, Joseph David Coppock. 1940

 

 

In the previous post several external examiners for the honors B.A. degree at Swarthmore College in the 1940s were identified. That list included several prominent names, such as Paul Samuelson (MIT), Lloyd Metzler (Federal Reserve), Friedrich Lutz (Princeton), but also a repeat examiner was one Joseph David Coppock, considerably less prominent in the great sweep of 20th century economics. Never having heard of Coppock myself, I decided to dedicate this post to the academic and professional career of this Swarthmore alumnus (A.B., 1933) and Columbia University Ph.D. (1940).

His academic arc began with an instructorship in economics at his Swarthmore alma mater while completing his Columbia University doctoral degree and ended at Penn State University. Government service, including work as a civilian in uniform with the Office of Strategic Services during the Second World War, provided years of economic-policy experience. A link to a very interesting oral interview with Coppock at the Truman Presidential Library covering his government experience is included below.

__________________

AEA Biographical Listing, 1969

Coppock, Joseph David, academic, government; b. Peru, Ind., 1909; A.B., Swarthmore Coll., 1933; M.A., Columbia, 1934, Ph.D., 1940. DOC. DIS. Government Agencies of Consumer Installment Credit, 1940. FIELDS 5, 1ab, 2d. PUB. International Economic Instability, 1962; Economics of the Business Firm, 1959; Foreign Trade of the Middle East, 1966. RES. International Economic Relations. Econ. Adv., U.S. Dept. State, 1945-53, 1961-62; prof. econs., Earlham Coll. [Richmond, Indiana], 1953-63, American U. Beirut, 1963-65, Pa. State U. Since 1965.

Source: Biographical Listings of Members [American Economic Association], American Economic Review, Vol. 59, No. 6 (1969). Handbook of the American Economic Association (Jan., 1970), p. 86.

__________________

Joseph David Coppock
Books

Joseph D. Coppock, Government Agencies of Consumer Instalment Credit.  Research Program of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Studies in Consumer Instalment Financing: Number Five (1940), p. xii.

From the author’s acknowledgment to doctoral dissertation published by NBER

Finally, I wish to thank Swarthmore College for granting me a leave of absence to participate in the National Bureau’s investigation of consumer instalment financing.

Joseph D. Coppock
Financial Research Staff
(National Bureau of Economic Research)
and
University of California

_____________, International Economic Instability: The Experience After World War 2(McGraw-Hill, 1962).

_____________, Economics of the Business Firm: Economics of Decision Making in the Business Enterprise(McGraw-Hill, 1959).

_____________, Foreign Trade of the Middle East: Instability and Growth, 1946-1962 (Economic Research Institute, American University of Beirut, 1966).

__________________

From the Finding Aid to the Joseph D. Coppock Papers at the Harry S. Truman Presidential Library and Museum

The papers of Joseph D. Coppock relate primarily to his work with the U. S. Department of State, the Office of Price Administration, the War Production Board, and the National War College. International trade was the main focus of his work at the Department of State and the War Production Board. Most of the documents are memoranda and correspondence involving foreign trade, along with financial records, handwritten notes, reports, speech drafts, and a transcript of a debate. The papers also contain the syllabi used by Coppock during his tenure as a visiting professor at the National War College.

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH

1909 (February 10), Born in Peru, Indiana

1933                A.B., Swarthmore College

1940                Ph.D., Columbia University

1941                Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture

1942                Special Assistant to Vice Chairman, War Production Board

1943                Price Executive, Chemical and Drugs Division, Office of Price Administration

1945-1953      Economic Adviser, Office of International Trade Policy, U.S. Department of State

1946-1952      Member of U.S. delegation to Economic and Social Council of the United Nations: New York, Geneva, and Santiago

1951-1953      Visiting Professor, National War College

1965                Became professor of economics at Penn State University

2000 (July 31) Died in Redmond, Washington

Coppock took a position as a visiting professor at the National War College in 1951. While there, he served as the chairman of the Civilian Faculty. After his term at the National War College, Coppock worked as a visiting professor at the American University of Beirut in Lebanon, and as a professor of economics at Earlham College in Indiana and at Pennsylvania State University.

__________________

Research Tip:
Oral History Interview
Covering Coppock’s extensive experience as an economist in government

Oral History Interview with Joseph D. Coppock (July 29, 1974) by Richard D. McKinzie. Harry S. Truman Presidential Library & Museum (Independence, Missouri).

__________________

Image Source: Swarthmore College yearbook, Halcyon 1940, p. 11.

 

Categories
Columbia Economists Harvard NBER Stanford

Columbia. Economics Ph.D. alumnus. Moses Abramovitz, 1939

 

 

The professional career of Moses Abramovitz shows what a blend of Harvard and Columbia training in economics crowned by an NBER post-doc could get you back in the day. His contributions to the study of long-term growth and to the Stanford economics department’s rise to prominence are truly important legacies.

The first item of the post gives us Abramovitz’s personal quarter-century report to his Harvard classmates of 1932. This is followed by excerpts from Abramovitz’s memoir for his family that provide a rich account of his economics training at Harvard and then Columbia. A link to download the entire memoir is provided below. The post closes with a memorial resolution written by Abramovitz’s Stanford colleagues. But the real treat, is found in Moses Abramovitz’s description of his economics education and economists important for his development. Among other things we learn, the chairman of the Harvard economics department, Harold Burbank, was indeed anti-Semitic enough for Abramovitz not to have dignified him by name. Also we learn that in 1934 “Milton [Friedman] was much less ideological then than he later became, so he was a very pleasant and agreeable companion.”

_______________________

From the 25th reunion report of the Harvard Class of 1932

MOSES ABRAMOVITZ

Home address: 543 W. Crescent Drive, Palo Alto, Calif.
Office address: Dept. of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif.
Born: Jan. 1, 1912, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Parents: Nathan Abramovitz, Betty Goldenberg.
Prepared at: Erasmus Hall High School, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Years in College: 1928-1932.
Degrees: A.B. summa cum laude, 1932; Ph.D. (Columbia Univ.), 1939.
Married: Carrie Glasser, June 13, 1937, Brooklyn, N.Y.
Child: Joel Nathan, July 19, 1950.
Occupation: Professor of economics, Stanford University; member research staff, national Bureau of Economic Research.
Offices Held: Member editorial board, American Economic Review, 1951-54.
Member of: American Economic Association; American Statistical Association; American Economic History Association; Royal Economic Society; American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Publications: Price Theory for a Changing Economy; Inventories and Business Cycles; The Economics of Growth; “Capital Formation and Economic Growth,” editor; The Growth of Public Employment in Great Britain (with Vera Eliasberg).

I LEFT Harvard supported by a Sheldon Fellowship and exhilarated by the prospect of a year in Europe—no small piece of luck at any time and a pot of good fortune in 1932. Together with Dave Popper, I saw Paris and the Rhine country as they were before the second deluge. We saw our first Storm Trooper rallies in Heidelberg and, if we were not too innocent, we were certainly too full of good spirits to be greatly disturbed. But those charming days were suddenly cut short. From Nuremberg, I was called home by my father’s death.

Back in New York I began graduate work in economics at Columbia and continued there until 1935. In 1936, I was lucky enough to be brought back to Harvard as an instructor for two years and had the fun and satisfaction of being again in Cambridge as a teacher while my memories of life at college were still warm. At Columbia I had met another young economist whom I had known years before. I shall stick to the essentials. The young economist was a woman. We were married in 1937, so Carrie has had a year at Harvard, too.

In 1938, we were back in New York again, this time to work at the National Bureau of Economic Research. In the years that followed I learned what I know about scientific investigation from Wesley Mitchell and Arthur F. Burns. Together they were in the midst of their wide-ranging investigation of business cycles. They set me to work studying inventory fluctuations. In the fullness of time I got some results and published a book, a hefty volume called Inventories and Business Cycles. It got some notice and caused some controversy, and a certain number of copies continue to serve as ballast for bookcases that might otherwise be disturbed by a fresh breeze.

Early in 1942, I went to Washington to help Bob Nathan and the W.P.B. Planning Committee, first to goad the military into laying out programs big enough to make use of a national productive capacity they could not believe existed, and then to keep them from losing the munitions they really needed under the load of programs too large for even our capacity. A year later I was at O.S.S. working for Professor Langer and Dean Mason on German economic intelligence. My particular job was probably of little use during the war itself, but it produced a collection of materials and a few more or less knowledgeable individuals, and both were needed after the German defeat. I became involved in the negotiations about German reparations and in that way came to see Moscow in the months right after V-E Day. Our work, as we all now know, foundered in the general wreck of American-Soviet relations. Together with many other stalemated delegations on many other subjects, ours eventually came to Potsdam to be witnesses at the beginning of the partition of Germany and Europe.

Since 1948 I have been a professor at Stanford. We have one child, a boy now six. We think living here near San Francisco as comfortable and delightful as it can be; so I rush back east as often as I can to disgorge the lotus and discharge my guilt.

My chief activity is still, as it has been for many years, research in economics—a stubborn, unyielding, frustrating and altogether exasperating subject from which I don’t know how to shake loose. What do I believe? One’s bent of mind is shaped by one’s work. Mine is inclined to skepticism, not beliefs, still less belief. Very likely I have much to learn. Oh yes! I believe both parties are right – in what each says about the other.

Source:  Harvard Class of 1932, Twenty-fifth Anniversary Report (1957), pp.6-8.

_______________________

Undergraduate and graduate student days: memories of Harvard and Columbia

…My fourth course [freshman year at Harvard] was different. It was elementary economics. I was lucky. I drew an excellent instructor named Bigelow. Using Frank W. Taussig’s Principles, he introduced us to the general logic of the neoclassical theories of relative prices of commodities and of the factors of production, land, labor, and capital, to the distribution of income among these primary factors, to the theory of international trade, and to the virtues of free markets. He offered us a list of supplementary readings, one of which was called simply Supply and Demand, by an English economist, H.D. Henderson. It was a thin book, but it was a notable example of the lucid presentation of the logic of the economics of value and distribution. One could see all around one examples in ordinary life of the validity and importance of the theory. The way in which the various parts of the subject hung together in an interdependent system seemed not only analytically deep; it emerged as a beautiful structure, an aesthetic as well as a logical and tested structure. More than any other experience, it was this little book that drew me to go on with economics. When I returned to Harvard in September 1929, therefore, I chose economics as my field of concentration. And, indeed, when the economy began its collapse in October of that year, it confirmed me in my choice. It was a decisive experience.

Concentrating in Economics

Having chosen to concentrate in economics, I was assigned a tutor. Here again I was lucky. He was Edward S. Mason, then a still young assistant professor. But he was destined for both academic leadership and, as my story unfolds, for a real influence on practical affairs. Even more important for me, however, was the fact that this young man was already recognizably “wise,” a man of good judgment in both scholarly decisions and practical matters. He took a liking to me, and he remembered his friends! He was due to turn up with support and help at several critical junctures in my story.

My very first meeting with Mason was an exciting moment. It was late September or early October in 1929, that fateful year. We chatted, and then, more brash than usual, I said, “Well, Professor, when is the stock market going to break?” He answered, without hesitation, “Almost immediately.” And when I returned for our second meeting, it had happened. And then, still brash, I said, “Well, Professor, you must have made a mint of money.” And then I learned something about him and perhaps most academics of the time. He said, “Are you crazy? I have never owned a share of stocks in my life.”

… Like many, but not all, of the young economists of the time, who had no deep commitment to mainstream economics, I saw clearly enough that mainstream theory offered us no guidance in understanding the Great Contraction and Depression, and it was consequently a poor basis for public policy. Something new was needed, a theory that dealt more adequately with recurrent recessions and expansions of business and particularly with the very serious depressions and eventual recoveries which in the U.S. had succeeded one another at intervals of about 15 to 20 years since the 1830s. For the moment, I did not get beyond dissatisfaction with the older wisdom, Real enlightenment came only in 1936 with the publication of J.M. Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. When I had absorbed Keynes’s reasoning, I became an enthusiasticKeynesian and I remain so to this day.

There was also a quite personal effect of these developments on my own work history. They prepared me to join the National Bureau of Economic Research when the chance came in 1937 and to do empirical research on business cycles under the direction of Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns, the most notable people doing such work at that time.

Still an undergraduate in 1929, however, at the beginning of the economic contraction and depression, I still had three years of undergraduate work to do. Guided by Mason and later by Douglas V. Brown, I took Taussig’s famous course in price theory at both the undergraduate and graduate levels. Taussig was then the leading American price theorist of his time and by far the most influential person in the Economics Department. In these courses, conducted by Socratic methods, he clearly formed a good opinion about me. I am sure he was of help to me behind the scenes at several junctures. I also remember two enlightening courses, Sumner Slichter on Labor Economics and John Williams on Money and Banking. In Williams’s course, I read Keynes’s earlier books and began to become familiar with his way of thinking. Anyhow, I did well in all these courses and in others in economics, history, and in one really interesting course in literature. That was Irving Babbett on Rousseau and Romanticism. I was apparently a natural-born good student and exam taker. The upshot was that I was graduated summa cum laude and I was given a Sheldon Traveling Fellowship.

For me, this last was more than an honor and more than a year of support and European travel and study at a time when money was so scarce and jobs for new college graduates almost nonexistent. My tutors and professors, including the influential Taussig, had already been encouraging me to think about going on to graduate study in economics and to an eventual academic career. To my parents and my brother, such a course was strange and uncertain. Abe began to call me “meshugana Moishele.” But it was clear that in the end they would support me in any decision I made. And the fellowship, which was tangible proof of the good opinion of the Harvard faculty, confirmed me in a career choice I had already more than half made: It was a decisive event.

[late June of 1932 left for Europe but Moses Abramovitz’s father died in September 1932]

… I resigned my scholarship and in that September of 1932 walked along Nostrand Avenue to Eastern Parkway and took the subway (IRT, Broadway and 7th Avenue Line) to Broadway and 116th Street. Half a block away, one entered Columbia. I walked in and registered and began three years of graduate work in economics. This was a big departure from the program I had thought lay before me, but I cannot remember any feeling of distress or resistance. I was glad to provide some degree of solid continuity for my mother, and I felt confident about the future. Columbia would also be a good start.

 

Columbia as a School of Economics

By forgoing Vienna, Cambridge, and Harvard, I had made a bigger change than I realized when I started in Columbia. Vienna, Cambridge, and Harvard were all centers in which understanding of the domestic economy of a country and of its international economic relations was squarely based on theoretical economics. This, in turn, was a doctrine logically derived from certain basic primary assumptions: that economic agents (consumers, savers, business firms, investors generally) were well informed, foresighted, and rational, and acted to promote their own individual interests, that they faced competitive markets and, as business firms, acted under the pressures of competition; they operated subject to the constraints of income and wealth and of market prices which they could not by their own actions significantly influence. Actions in this context were perceived as leading to an equilibrium of prices, wages, profits, etc., and of consumer satisfactions in which change might be harmful to some but would be more than offset by benefit to others. Thus, there was no room or occasion for public action except such as was necessary to enforce contracts, maintain competition, prevent or punish fraud and generally keep the peace. Changes in technology and in consumer tastes would lead to a new equilibrium of prices, rewards, incomes, etc., but such changes were viewed as “exogenous,” not the result of economic action or motivation and beyond the ken of economics.

The Columbia economists, however, rejected this structure of theory or, at least, its general application. They conceded its usefulness in explaining very simple matters: why a grand piano cost more than a pair of shoes, and, in general, why there is a rough association between the prices of commodities and their costs of production. They were skeptical, however, about the theoretical assumptions that agents were foresighted, well-informed, and rational. They saw markets as characterized by various degrees of monopoly power, with business firms capable not only of profiting by constraining production and raising prices more than costs alone would justify; they also often had the power to shape consumer tastes, for example by advertising, and, most important, to invest in research and development and so to advance and sometimes to retard—technological progress. They tended to see the economy as a whole, not as tending to an equilibrium, but as generating long-term growth of productivity, income, and wealth. This tendency did not, however, emerge continuously and at a stable rate but subject to recurrent fluctuations, loosely called “cyclical,” in which advance was sometimes fast,sometimes slow, and sometimes negative.

As I absorbed all this, I saw the justice of the Columbia outlook and came to appreciate its radical departure from the economics in which I had been trained as a Harvard undergraduate. Columbia economics, as it stood in the Thirties, however, had its own serious limitations. It was well advanced in its understanding of two subjects. One was in the study of the behavior of firms that had acquired and enjoyed various kinds and degrees of monopoly power. This was the province of Arthur Robert (“Columbia”) Burns—not the Arthur Frank (“Bureau”) Burns with whom I later did research on business cycles.

The other subject was another sphere of monopoly power, that of labor unions. Why were they so much less important in the U.S.A. than in Europe? What activities were successfully unionized and which not? And why? This was the area over which Leo Wolman ruled. Wolman later played a considerable role in the Roosevelt Administration, especially in connection with the disorders in the labor market stemming from the organizing drives of the AFL/CIO. He worked as chairman of the Automobile Labor Board, where he tried to keep the peace in that important industry—an effort that won him no friends in the unions. Wolman’s teaching, however, was as far from academic as can be imagined. It came directly from his own experience with labor unions. Although a professor at Columbia, he also worked as the economic advisor of Sidney Hillman, the president of the Amalgamated Clothing Workers, the men’s clothing union. Wolman learned as much as he advised. He saw clearly that in the flexible and mobile population conditions of the American continent, the only unions that could exercise strong and stable monopoly power were those operating in industries frozen in location. The newsprint industry was an example. The book print industry was not. Where the industry could move, it could flee from a union whose wage and other demands were excessive. Such a condition faced the Amalgamated, and Wolman used his influence to restrain labor’s demands. Even so, the industry moved from New York City to upstate New York, then down South, then to Chicago and on to California. It was the barrier to movement posed by small nation-states that made European unions stronger and more stable than America’s.

These subjects then were well taught at Columbia, and I felt I learned much from A.R. Burns and Leo Wolman. The basic academic tone of the faculty, however, stemmed from Wesley Mitchell. He had been the dominating influence on the faculty since he joined it just before the First World War. According to Mitchell’s own view of himself, his outlook stemmed in part from his early Midwestern origins. He was the son of a physician who was a small town practitioner in central Illinois. The down-to-earth pragmatism of the neighboring family farmers ran strongly in his personality. It was quite natural, therefore, that he should have been drawn to the philosophical schools of William James and John Dewey when these became prominent. Experience, not the logical implications of some generalized ideal, had to be our guide to life. He told about teasing his good Baptist grandmother and her conception of a God of Love who could yet condemn unbaptized infants to the torments of Hell.

[…]

Mitchell carried out his scheme and reported his findings, together with his evidence, in a large book with the simple title, Business Cycles. The book began with a summary of earlier work relevant to the subject together with the “speculations” (one of Mitchell’s favorite characterizations of largely theoretical but inadequately verified ideas). He used these as suggestions of subjects needing investigation. There followed Mitchell’s own quantitative studies of these and other subjects: production (agricultural and other), income, sales, retail, wholesale, manufacturing, etc., commodity prices, the prices of stocks and bonds, and the profits and interest rates they paid. Mitchell’s quantitative descriptions involved tracing the fluctuations of the behavior in these activities and of their long-term trend and seasonal fluctuations so that the fluctuations connected with business cycles could be seen free of the influence of trends and seasonal factors. The book ended with a statement of Mitchell’s views of how the concatenation of the behavior of the separate activities led to expansions of business activities in general followed by similarly general contractions, which in turn produced the conditions that generated another business expansion.

Mitchell’s book made a notable impression on economists. This was partly because now, for the first time, students of economics could base their attempts to explain business cycles and to develop a theoretical model based on definite quantitative information about the typical behavior of the major business activities. But it was partly, perhaps mainly, because it gave economists at large a new vision of how economic research could be carried on. It need not mainly consist of logical deductions from a set of preannounced assumptions. It could instead take the form of observed behavior, together with empirical tests of the hypotheses so formed based on fresh observations independent of those from which the hypotheses originally proposed had been drawn. It was this vision of an empirically based economics that was the spirit of the Columbia program, and it stood in sharp contrast to the program at Harvard, where I was introduced to the subject, and, indeed, with the economics then taught in the other leading universities.

I did not give up my allegiance to Harvard easily. Two episodes illustrate my resistance. Mitchell gave a course on business cycles. I chose to take it. It was a course that, in a sense, was a duplicate of his 1913 book, refreshed by data not available in 1913. But as I listened to Mitchell’s “analysis” of one time series after another—amplitude, lead or lag relative to the “reference” peak or trough (that is, relative to the peak or trough of the general business cycle), rates of expansion or contraction in successive thirds of the fluctuations, and more—I could make nothing of it. After some weeks I dropped the course. Mitchell signed the necessary form without demur and, apparently, never held it against me—a characteristic of his liberal and tolerant attitude.

In other respects, my year was pleasant and rewarding. I found Eli Ginzberg and began a lifelong friendship, the closest and most intimate in my life. Like other graduate students, I occupied a “cubicle” on the top floor of the new Butler Library—just enough space for a table, chair, and file cabinet. A friend said: “It’s all right if I am in there alone, but if I get an idea, I have to move into the corridor.” One day, there was a knock on my door, and in walked Eli. He had just returned from a scholarship, traveling the country and interviewing business executives, union bosses, politicians, etc. On his return, he asked Mrs. Stewart, the all-knowing department secretary, what new people were interesting. She mentioned me, and there he was. He sat down and began to tell me about his travels, the first of many sessions on the same subject.

One early reward of my new friendship was to come to know his parents. They occupied an eighth-floor apartment on 114th Street, directly behind the Butler Library. Eli’s father, Louis Ginzberg, was a professor in the Jewish Theological Seminary at 120th Street. He was perhaps the most notable Jewish scholar of his time, a specialist in Talmudic history and interpretation based on a wide knowledge of ancient Middle Eastern languages and in the history of its peoples. Eli began to bring me to their Friday evening suppers. I found old Louis to be a wise and humorous man, a fine companion and host for a pleasant evening.

On one of my first visits, Eli took me into Louis’s study to show me a lampshade that one of Louis’s students had made. The parchment shade was decorated. All around the shade were drawn the spines of books, and on each spine there appeared the title of one of Louis’s books, perhaps 14 or 15 in all. And then the student had an inspiration. He added one more spine and on it drew the title of Eli’s first book, his Ph.D. dissertation, The House of Adam Smith. At the time, we wondered whether Eli could duplicate his Father’s achievement. In fact, he did so many times over, in quantity at least, if not always in depth—something to which Eli did not aspire.

[…]

Now back to my struggle between Harvard and Columbia economics. In that second year at Columbia, the internal conflict found two new exponents. On the Columbia side was Eli. He was someone of great personal interest to me, but as an economist, he was an eccentric. He was a skeptic about anything theoretical and served mainly as an exemplar of Columbia’s tolerance for talent in whatever way it showed itself. On the Harvard side, there now appeared a powerful supporter. He was Milton Friedman, who had come to Columbia on a scholarship for a year of graduate work. We soon became good friends. It emerged that we two were the only Columbia students who had had a real training in neoclassical price theory, the very bedrock of the economics of the time. The faculty, moreover, refused to sanction a course in the subject, and the students realized what they were missing. Milton and I undertook to do something to fill the gap. We organized a student-run seminar, worked out a list of topics, assigned students to prepare papers, and guided the presentation and discussion. The other students benefitted and so did we. We were having our first teaching experience. For the moment, however, it helped keep my mind running in the grooves of my Harvard training

My friendship with Milton was solidified when a Columbia classmate invited us to join him in a long holiday in his family’s fishing camp on the French River in Northern Ontario, still a wild and unsettled area. It turned out, however, that our friend was ordered to work in his family’s business concern for the summer. We were invited to use the camp ourselves, and we did. So we spent a wonderful six weeks together. We drove north in my Model A Ford roadster until we reached a tiny settlement on the French River called Bon Air. There we parked the car at a general store where we hired some cots, some cooking utensils, a gasoline cookstove, and a canoe, and where we bought some canned and packaged foods as well as eggs and Canadian back bacon. The general store owner piled all these objects in his motorboat and, with the canoe in tow, took us out to our camp 3½ miles down the river on a tiny island in the stream. We were the only inhabitants. There he literally threw our stuff on the shore and took his leave. From now on, we had to depend on our canoe to get back and renew supplies at Bon Air.

Neither of us at first knew anything about canoeing, but we had good teachers by example in the Indians from a reservation across the river. Watching them, we soon learned the J stroke and became fairly competent. We canoed to Bon Air twice weekly and soon organized our camp. We had a privy some 50 yards away. We had the usual first experience trying to cook rice, but we learned to get along. We swam twice a day, and, as we gained confidence in the canoe, took overnight canoe trips down the river. These were fun, especially because of occasional rapids which we could run going down the river but had to portage around on the way back. The one thing we did not try was fishing. In fact, we became known along the river as those strange boys who did not fish, so many men returning in the late afternoon would throw us a fish or two. We had a valuable supplement to our diet of canned goods.

The thing we did do all day long, every day, was talk—about everything, but mostly economics. Milton was much less ideological then than he later became, so he was a very pleasant and agreeable companion; that was especially important in 1934, in the depths of the Depression when Roosevelt’s New Deal was just taking shape, when it included so much that was controversial, and when the menace of Hitler was becoming clearly visible.

As things turned out, however, the most important thing for me in that academic year of 1933-34 was the advent of Carrie [whom he would marry]. But that belongs in a chapter of its own.

…When I finished my graduate course work in 1935, I was given an instructorship at Harvard, I owed it to the sponsorship of Ed Mason, my old tutor. With all this arranged, we determined to get married. I was to have a first year to get started at Harvard, and Carrie was to have a year to complete her Columbia course. We would marry in June 1937. We told our parents and friends. Everyone was pleased.

…You will recall that on completing my graduate work at Columbia, I returned to Harvard as an instructor and tutor in 1936. I spent the first year on my own; then, following our marriage, Carrie joined me there. We lived in a comfortable little apartment at 31 Concord Avenue, near the RadcliffeYard.

It turned out to be an unsatisfactory time, which brought each of us into our only serious confrontations with discrimination. For Carrie it was a brush with what would now be called “sexism.” She heard that Wellesley was looking for a young instructor. She thought correctly that her graduate work and teaching experience qualified her. She appeared for an interview, which was conducted by John Dunlop, a Harvard professor. They reviewed her background, and, he conceded, she was qualified. And then he told her, with expressions of regret, that her application could go no further. Wellesley, a women’s college, wanted only a male.

My own problem was an example of that anti-Semitism that still infected Harvard and most other universities. During my time back at Harvard, I had taught Ec A and a course in Labor Market Economics, and I had tutored a full quota of economics majors in my tutorial rooms in Dunster House. I thought it had gone pretty well.

To this I should add the tale of an amusing development. When I returned to Cambridge in September 1937 together with Carrie, I was told by the department chairman that my salary, then $2,500 a year, would be raised by $200. And then he carefully explained that that was not because, as a married man, my expenses were higher. It was because I was married that he could add Radcliffe girls to my list of tutees. Needless to say, the relation of women to men has since changed radically. Harvard and Radcliffe are now fully merged. Women and men are now equally Harvard professors and Harvard students. The days when Radcliffe girls were thought to be at special and intolerable risk if they met an unmarried tutor have long gone.

In the spring of 1938, I received another summons from the chairman [Harold Burbank]. He received me cordially, and after the usual preliminary politenesses, he explained that it was time we discussed my future at Harvard. His opening was itself a warning about what was to come. “Now, Moe, we are both men of the world.” And then he went on to say that I had done well. I had a promising future. “But you must understand; we could not promote Jakey, so you must not expect to stay on here.” I had formed no such expectation, but I understood perfectly. “Jakey” was Jacob Viner, a truly notable economist. He had done brilliant theoretical work early. He was Taussig’s favorite student. Clearly, Harvard’s president at the time was a bar. He would not accept the appointment of Jews, something widely whispered. They might be scholars, but, by Lowell’s Boston Brahmin standards, they could not be gentlemen. So all this was hardly a complete surprise. But my chairman’s quiet but open expression of anti-Semitism was a shock.

I have often wondered whether it was not really a subtle way of ending my appointment without saying that I simply had not measured up. Perhaps, but that could hardly apply to Viner, who went on to do brilliant work, and who ended his career as a colleague of Einstein at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton. Had a Nobel Prize for Economics existed at the time, he would certainly have been a Nobel laureate.

So I left the interview knowing that I had to make plans to move. My opportunity was not long in coming. Later that same spring, I appeared again at Columbia for the defense of my dissertation, the last step on the way to the doctorate. The committee was chaired by Wesley Mitchell, the man whose course on business cycles I had dropped six year earlier. It made no difference to the examination. Apparently, I passed easily. Indeed my thesis won the Seligman Prize for the best of the year. When the committee adjourned, Mitchell asked me to stay behind. He wanted to ask me whether I would be willing to join the National Bureau to work with him on the Bureau’s business cycles project. My salary would be $3,500 year, a thousand dollars above my Harvard salary. In my circumstances it did not take me long to decide. In a couple of days he had my answer. I would be delighted. So now, after our first summer in Maine, Carrie and I moved to New York. I can guess now how the Bureau appointment had come about. My friend Milton Friedman (see Chapter Six), had just joined the Bureau with an appointment like my own, but to work on another subject. Milton was a friend and also the favorite student of Arthur F. Burns, at the time Mitchell’s chief assistant, who was already the really effective head of the business cycles work. My guess is that Milton became aware of Burns’s interest in finding an associate for business cycles to work especially on the cyclical role of inventories. My dissertation included a chapter on inventories. So he probably told Burns, and then events took their course.

 

Source:  Moses Abramovitz, Days Gone By: A Memoir for my Family (2001), pp. 32-34, 41-49, 77-79. (Link to download the memoir as .pdf)

_______________________

Stanford Faculty Memorial Resolution

MOSES ABRAMOVITZ
(1912-2000)

Moses Abramovitz, William Robertson Coe Professor of American Economic History Emeritus, died December 1, 2000, at Stanford University Hospital, just one month before reaching his eighty-ninth birthday.

Known by his family, friends, and colleagues as “Moe,” Abramovitz was one of the primary builders of Stanford’s Department of Economics. He taught at Stanford for almost thirty years, taking leave only during 1962-63 to work as economic advisor to the secretary general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris. He served as chair from 1963 to 1965, and from 1971 to 1974, both critical junctures in the department’s history. During his tenure at Stanford and after his retirement in 1976, Moe gained international renown and admiration for his pioneering contributions to the study of long-term economic growth.

Moe was born in Brooklyn, New York, to a Romanian Jewish immigrant family. After graduating from Erasmus Hall High School, he entered Harvard in 1928. Like many of his generation, Moe’s interest in economics was stimulated by the experience of the Great Depression. So, in 1932 he continued his undergraduate studies of the subject at Columbia University, where he received his Ph.D. in 1939. At Columbia, Moe began a lifelong friendship with Milton Friedman. In later years, Moe liked to joke that he had been debating with Friedman for more than fifty years, and consistently winning — except when Milton was present. Columbia connections also led Moe to join the National Bureau of Economic Research in 1937, where he helped to launch the business cycle studies for which the Bureau became famous, working with such figures as Wesley Mitchell, Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns.

Also at Columbia, Moe became re-acquainted with his Erasmus classmate Carrie Glasser, who was also working for her doctoral degree in economics. Moe and Carrie were married in June of 1937, and were devoted to each other until Carrie’s death in October 1999. When Moe came to Stanford in 1948, Carrie began what became a highly satisfying and successful career as a painter, sculptress and collage artist. Their only son, Joel, born in 1946, is a practicing neurosurgeon in Connecticut.

During World War II, Moe served first at the War Production Board, working with Simon Kuznets to analyze the limits of feasible production during wartime. He then moved to the Office of Strategic Services as chief of the European industry and trade section. During 1945 and 1946, he was economic advisor to the United States representative on the Allied Reparations Commission. Moe’s modest but strong character was well displayed in an episode during the postwar reparations debate. Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau had proposed a plan to deindustrialize the German economy. An OSS research team headed by Moe wrote a memorandum arguing that this plan would destroy Germany’s capacity to export, leaving it unable to pay for food and other essential imports. At a meeting with Moe and two other OSS economists, Ed Mason and Emile Despres, Morgenthau angrily asked: “Who is responsible for this?” Moe recalled: “Mason looked at Despres, and Emile looked at me. I had no one else to look at. The buck stopped with me. So, rather meekly, I said I was responsible.”

This anecdote and many others may be found in a charming memoir that Moe completed shortly before his death, “Days Gone By,” accessible on the Stanford Economics Department website.

At Stanford Moe began the studies of long-term economic growth that established his reputation among professional economists. A 1956 paper provided the first systematic estimates showing that forces raising the productivity of labor and capital were responsible for approximately half of the historical growth rate of real U.S. GDP, and close to three quarters of the growth rate of real GDP per capita. Subsequently he made seminal contributions in identifying the factors promoting and obstructing convergence in levels of productivity among advanced and developing countries of the world. For these studies and others, Moe received many academic honors. He was elected to the presidency of the American Economic Association (1979-80), the Western Economic Association (1988-89), and the Economic History Association (1992-93). From abroad came honorary doctorates from the University of Uppsala in Sweden (1985), and the University of Ancona in Italy (1992); he took special enjoyment from an invitation to become a fellow of the prestigious Academia Nazionale de Lincei in 1991 — “following Galileo with a lag,” he said, with a characteristic self-deprecatory twinkle.

Committee:

Paul A. David
Ronald McKinnon
Gavin Wright

Source: Stanford Report, July 9, 2003.

Image Source: Harvard Class of 1932, Twenty-fifth Anniversary Report (1957).

 

 

Categories
Cambridge Chicago Columbia Economic History Economists Germany Harvard NBER Stanford

Chicago. Friedman memo regarding Karl Bode and Moses Abramovitz, 1947

 

In the following 1947 memo from Milton Friedman to T.W. Schultz we can read two talent-scouting reports on potential appointments for the University of Chicago economics department. One candidate, Karl Bode had been vouched for by Allen Wallis, a trusted friend and colleague of Milton Friedman, but we can easily read Friedman’s own less than enthusiastic report on the meager published work examined, certainly compared to Friedman’s glowing report for his friend from Columbia student days, Moses Abramovitz. But comparing the publications listed in the memo, I certainly wouldn’t fault Friedman’s revealed preference for Abramovitz.

Abramovitz went on to have a long and distinguished career at Stanford and Bode left Stanford for government service with his last occupation according to his death certificate “Planning Director, Agency for International Development (A.I.D.)”

Since Karl Bode turned out to have cast a relatively short academic shadow, I have appended some biographical information about him at the end of this post. But for now just the vital dates: Karl Ernst Franz Bode was born November 24, 1912 in Boennien, Germany and he died March 18, 1981 in Arlington, VA.

__________________

Milton Friedman on Bode and Abramovitz

January 10, 1947

[To:] Mr. Schultz, Economics
[From:] Mr. Friedman, Economics
[Re:] Staff appointments

In connection with staff appointments, I thought it might be helpful if I put down on paper for you the information I have on two persons whose names I have casually mentioned: Karl Bode and Moses Abramovitz.

  1. Karl Bode (Assoc. Prof. of Economics, Stanford)

I know about Bode primarily from Allen Wallis. Allen considers him absolutely first-rate in all respects and recommends him very highly.

Bode, who is now in his early thirties, was born in Germany and, though Catholic of Aryan descent, and the holder of a highly-prized governmental fellowship, left Germany almost immediately after Hitler’s accession. He went first to Austria, then to Switzerland, where he took his Ph.D., in 1935, then to England, where he studied at Cambridge and at the London School. Bernard Haley met him while at Cambridge, was highly impressed with him, and induced him to come to Stanford, where he has been since 1937. He has been on leave of absence since early 1945, first with the Tactical Bombing Survey, then with the Allied Military Government in Berlin. He is expected back sometime this summer.

At Stanford, Bode is responsible for American and European Economic History, and, in addition, has taught advanced courses in Economic Theory. His original interest was in International Trade. He has a contract to write a text on Economic History, but I do not know whether on American or European Economic History.

I have obtained a list of his publications, most of which are fragments or reviews. Three of more general interest are:

(a) A. W. Stonier: “A New Approach to the Methodology of the Social Sciences”, Economica, Vol. 4, p. 406-424, Nov., 1937.

(b) “Plan Analysis and process analysis: AER, 33-348-54, June 1943.

(c) “A Note on the Mathematical Coincidence of the instantaneous and the serial multiplier”, Review of Economic Statistics, 26: 221-222, Nov. 1944.

I have read these. They are too slight to permit a reliable and comprehensive judgment about his capacities; but they are sufficient to demonstrate a clear, logical mind.

Allen tells me that Schumpeter, Haberler, Howard Ellis, and of course, the Stanford people all know him and could provide evidence about his abilities.

 

  1. Moses Abramovitz (member of research staff in charge of business cycle unit, National Bureau of Economic Research.)

Abramovitz got his bachelor’s at Harvard, his Ph.D. at Columbia. He has done some part-time teaching of Theory at Columbia. During the war he was with the Office of Strategic Services, where he worked on foreign economic conditions. He was a member of the reparations commission staff at both the Moscow and Paris Conferences.

Abramovitz and I were fellow graduate students at Columbia, and I have known him rather well ever since. I think him extremely capable, with an excellent mind, broad interests, and an extraordinary capacity for forming a sound judgment from conflicting evidence.

His academic and private research background is mostly in Economic Theory and Business Cycles; but the war years gave him a considerable background, and generated a real interest, in foreign economic relations.

Some of his writings are:

Selected Publications:

An Approach to a Price Theory for a Changing Economy, Columbia University Press, 1939.

Monopolistic Selling in a Changing Economy, Q.J.E., Feb., 1938.

Saving vs Investment: Profits vs Prosperity?Supplement on papers relating to the TNEC, Am. Econ. Rev., June, 1942.

Book on Cyclical behavior of inventories completed and scheduled to be published shortly by Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research.

M.F.

ab

* * * * *

PUBLICATIONS OF KARL BODE

A new approach to the methodology of the social sciences. (With A.W. Stonier): Economica, vol. 4, pp. 406-424, November, 1937.

Prosperität und Depression: Zeitschrift für Nationalökonomie, vol. 8, pp. 597-614, December, 1937.

Review of: Plotnik, M.J. Werner Sombart and his type of economics. 1937. American Economic Review, 28: 522-523, September, 1938.

Review of: Sombart, Werner. Weltanschauung, Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft. 1938. Ibid., 28: 766, December, 1938.

The acceptance of defeat in Germany: Journal of abnormal and social psychology, 38: 193-198, April, 1943.

Plan analysis and process analysis: American Economic Review, 33: 348-354, June, 1943.

Review of: Day, C. Economic Development in Europe. 1942:Journal of economic History, 2: 225-227, November, 1942.

Catholics in the postwar world: America, 71: 347-348, July, 1944

Economic aspects of morale in Nazi Germany: Pacific Coast Economic Association: Papers, 1942. pp. 29-34, 1943.

Reflections on a reasonable peace: Thought, 19: 41-48, March, 1944

Review of: Dempsey, B.W. Interest and usury. 1943: Ibid., 18: 756-758, December, 1943.

German reparations and a democratic peace: Thought, 19: 594-606, December, 1944

A note on the mathematical coincidence of the instantaneous and the serial multiplier: Review of Economic Statistics, 26: 221-222, November, 1944.

 

Source:Hoover Institution Archives. Papers of Milton Friedman, Box 79, Folder 1 “University of Chicago, Minutes. Economics Department 1946-1949”.

__________________

Karl F. Bode
AEA 1969 Directory of Members, p. 41.

Bode, Karl F., government; b. Germany, 1912; student, U. Bonn-Germany, 1931-33, U. Vienna-Austria, 1933-34; Ph.D., U. Bern-Switzerland, 1935; Cambridge-England, 1935-37. DOC.DIS. The Concept of Neutral Money, 1935. FIELDS 2abc, 1c, 4a. Chief, Regional Organization & Program Staff, Intl. Cooperation Adm., 1955-60, asst. dep. dir. for planning, 1960-62; chief, Planning Assistance & Research Div., Agy. for Intl. Dev., 1962-67; dir., Research, Evaluation & Information Retrieval, Agy. for Internat. Dev. since 1967. ADDRESS Vietnam Bur., Agy. for Internat. Dev., Dept. State, Washington, DC 20523.

__________________

 Haberler Report of Mises’s Private Seminar

Regular participants of the seminar were several members of the Mont Pelerin Society – notably Hayek, Machlup, the late Alfred Schutz and in the very early days, John V. Van Sickle. Visiting scholars regarded it a great honor to be invited to the seminar – among them Howard S. Ellis (University of California), Ragnar Nurkse (late Professor of Economics in Columbia University, New York) whose untimely death occurred three years ago, Karl Bode (later in Stanford University and now in Washington), Alfred Stonier (now University College in London), and many others. There was Oskar Morgenstern (now Princeton University), the late Karl Schlesinger and Richard Strigl, two of the most brilliant economists of their time…the unforgettable Felix Kaufmann, philosopher of the Social Sciences in the broadest sense including the law and economics – he also wrote a much debated book on the logical foundation of mathematics – who after his emigration in 1938 joined the Faculty of the New School for Social Research in New York where he taught with great success until his premature death twelve years ago.

Source: Mises’s Private Seminar: Reminiscences by Gottfried Haberler. Reprint from The Mont Pelerin Quarterly, Volume III, October 1961, No. 3, page 20f. Posted at the Mises Institute website.

__________________

 From the Preface of Felix Kaufman’s 1936 book

For the critical editing of the manuscript and of the galleys, I wish to thank most heartily a number of friends in various countries, expecially Dr. Karl Bode, presently of St. John’s College, Cambridge and Dr. Alfred Schütz of Vienna. Dr. Bode has also taken upon himself the great labor of preparing both indexes.

Source: Felix Kaufmann. Theory and Method in the Social Sciences. [English translation of Methodenlehre der Sozialwissenschaften. Wien: Julius Springer, 1936.] from Felix Kaufmann’s Theory and Method in the Social Sciences, Robert S. Cohen and Ingeborg K. Helling (eds.). Boston Studies in the Philosophy and  History of Science, 303. Springer: 2014.

__________________

 Reports from The Stanford Daily

The Stanford Daily, Volume 93, Issue 47, 29 April 1938

Several distinguished scholars from other universities will join the Stanford faculty next year…Dr. Karl Franz Bode, formerly on the faculty of St. John’s College, Cambridge University, England, was appointed assistant professor of economics to succeed Dr. Donald M. Erb who was appointed president of the University of Oregon….

 

The Stanford Daily, Volume 100, Issue 02, 23 September 1941, p. 1.

Econ Department Changes Classes… History of Currency Problems, 118, will he given in fall quarter rather than in the spring quarter. It is a five-unit course, taught MTWThF at 11 a.m. in Room 200Q by Karl F. Bode. Economics 1 and 2 are prerequisites….

 

The Stanford Daily, Volume 103, Issue 86, 28 May 1943, p. 1.

Wilbur Names New Faculty Promotions. Promotions and appointments of faculty members for the academic year 1943-1944 were announced yesterday by Chancellor Ray Lyman Wilbur. … Those promoted from assistant professor to associate professor are … Dr. Karl F. Bode, economics….

 

The Stanford Daily, Volume 111, Issue 20, 7 March 1947, p. 3

President Donald B. Tresidder yesterday announced 37 faculty promotions. The promotions include 11 faculty members to full professorships, six to associate professorships, and two to assistant professorships, together with promotion of 18 members of the clinical faculty at the Stanford School of Medicine in San Francisco….

To professorships … Karl F. Bode, in economics…

 

The Stanford Daily, Vol 119, Issue 7, 13 February 1951, p. 1.

Dr. Karl F. Bode, Stanford economics professor on leave for government duty in Germany, has been appointed deputy economic adviser, Office of Economic Affairs, it has been announced by the office of the U.S. High Commissioner for Germany. Dr. Bode will be stationed in Bonn, Germany. He has been acting chief of the program division in the Office of Economic Affairs.

 

Image Source: Karl Bode from the 1939 Standford Quad.

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Berkeley Chicago Columbia Economists NBER New School

Columbia. Memorial Minute for Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1949

 

Memorial minutes entered into a faculty’s record have the virtue of being brief and typically are written by someone who has had a close personal/professional relationship with the subject as seen in the following memorial minute delivered by Wesley Clair Mitchell’s student and later colleague, Frederick C. Mills.

The dual memoir Two Lives–The Story of Wesley Clair Mitchell and Myself, written by Mitchell’s wife Lucy Sprague Mitchell is available at hathitrust.org and provides much detail, e.g. an eight page autobiographical letter written by Mitchell in 1911.

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WESLEY CLAIR MITCHELL
Memorial Minute read by Professor F. C. Mills
February 18, 1949

Wesley Clair Mitchell, Professor Emeritus of Economics, died in New York City on October 29, 1948. In his death the world lost one of the great scholars of our generation and the members of this Faculty lost a distinguished colleague and a cherished friend.

Wesley Mitchell was born in Rushville, Illinois, on August 5, 1874, the son of a country doctor who had won the rank of Brevet Colonel as a Civil War surgeon. The family was of New England stock, and although a middle-western boyhood and later adult years in California and New York left their impress on Mitchell, something of the New England strain was always discernible in the pattern of his thought and life.

Mitchell’s student days, undergraduate and graduate, were spent at the University of Chicago, with a one-year interim period at Halle and Vienna. The influence of the German and Austrian residence was slight; Mitchell was a product of American university training in the period of vigorous growth that came at the turn of the century. His outstanding qualities as an economist were distinctive of ways of thought and study that were largely indigenous to this country. Thorstein Veblen, John Dewey, J. Laurence Laughlin in their several ways deeply affected Mitchell’s thinking and his way of conceiving of the problems of society.

Following a year at the Census Bureau and a short term as instructor at the University of Chicago, Mitchell moved in 1902 to the University of California, at Berkeley, to begin a decade of fruitful work and of steady personal growth. His tools of research were sharpened and his mastery of them perfected. The brilliant studies of the greenback period, in which the pattern of his scholarly work was first defined, were extended. The massive monograph on Business Cycles, one of the great products of scholarship in the social sciences, was here completed. But beyond these solid contributions to economic thought and method this was a rich period inMitchell’s life, to which he always looked back as something of a personal golden age. A young man intellectually somewhat aloof and inclined toward austerity mellowed in the sunshine of the west and in the easy, pleasant companionships of the young University. He took to the Sierras avidly, relishing the free ways, the free language and the physical release to be found in mountain climbing. A companion of those days says that Wesley’s inhibitions were peeled off like the layers of an onion as successive altitude levels were passed. He found a wife, too, in the west; when he left California in 1912 he took with him the Dean of Women of the University.

Wesley Mitchell’s service at Columbia began in 1913 and extended to the date of his retirement in 1944, except for a three-year term at the New School for Social Research. Indeed, his Columbia connection extended, properly, to the day of his death, for there was no time when we did not consider him one of us, or when he did not so regard himself. Mitchell’s reputation had been established by the time he came to Columbia; he had reached full scholarly maturity. Yet his growth continued and his accomplishments multiplied. A steady (but not a voluminous) flow of papers, reviews, addresses and more extensive studies came from his pen. Into each, whether brief or extended, went care in the construction of a logical and orderly argument, skill in the marshaling of evidence, and objectivity in the use of that evidence. Each, too, was in exposition a work of craftsmanship by a man whose ear was extraordinarily sensitive to the rhythms of our language and whose mind was alert to shades of meaning and subtleties of expression.

There was also an almost uninterrupted series of public and professional services and of accumulating honors. He was Chief of the Price Section of the War Industries Board during the first World War, chairman of the President’s Committee on Recent Social Trends, a member of the National Planning Board, the National Resources Board, and the Federal Emergency Administration of Public Works, and chairman of the Committee on the Cost of Living when that burning issue threatened to check the steady production of goods during the second World War. There was the launching in 1920 and the directing for a quarter of a century of a new instrument for the advancement of knowledge—the National Bureau of Economic Research. Over a long stretch of years he helped to break down the barriers between the social sciences and to unify their activities in the Social Science Research Council. He was one of those who founded and shaped the New School for Social Research. Counsel and guidance were given over many years to the Bureau of Educational Experiments. He was called upon to direct the affairs of professional societies, serving as President of the American Economic Association, the American Statistical Association, the Econometric Society, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. There were elections to learned societies at home and abroad. Honorary degrees came from Oxford, the University of Paris, and from major universities in this country. These were rich honors and they were not unwelcome; but he remained to the day of his death a modest scholar, who would both gladly learn and gladly teach.

It was as teacher and scholar that Mitchell’s greatest services were rendered to Columbia, and it was in these roles that he was best known to us of this Faculty. Mitchell possessed in high degree the qualities of a good teacher. There was insight in his analyses; there was a freshness of view that he never lost; there was lucidity of thought and expression; there was a sense of sharing with the student the task of inquiry. Above all, perhaps, was the sense of integrity. Here was a man without affectation, without pretense, who honestly sought understanding.

The specific contributions that Mitchell made to economics will be duly appraised by his colleagues in that profession. As members of a political science faculty, however, it is proper for us to recognize the service of Mitchell in breaking economics out of the tight formalism of the tradition that prevailed when he came to the subject. He was profoundly unhappy about economics as a branch of logic, dealing with the interaction of atoms in the form of human reasoning machines, subjecting itself only to tests of logical consistency, almost indifferent to the relevance of its principles to complex and constantly changing reality. Mitchell himself was not unskilled in the spinning of deductive arguments, but he was keenly aware of the dangers of self-delusion in unchecked rationalism. His bent was empirical; his emphasis in research was on the constant checking of reason against observation. First in the monetary field, later in the study of prices, of business cycles, and of national income, he developed and refined methods of quantitative analysis and stimulated a movement that has deeply affected the character of economic research and the content of economic thought the world over. But Mitchell’s concern was never with method as method. Man was at the center. Economics was to him on of the sciences of human behavior. And the human being with whose actions he was concerned was a complex creature whose motives could not be reduced to the reasoned balancing of satisfactions against pains or of prospective gains against prospective losses. He stressed the role in economics of institutions — of money, of the industrial system — which man had shaped and which in turn were shaping him; in so doing he helped to turn many younger economists to the study of a neglected phase of economic life. These various aspects of Mitchell’s thought are developed in treatises and shorter papers published over a period of fifty years. They are outstandingly revealed in the series of books on business cycles that are Mitchell’s greatest substantive contribution to economics.

Some of the personal qualities of Wesley Mitchell have been suggested in this brief account of his work. But there was much more than this. He was a lover of poetry whose mind was stocked with verse. He was a connoisseur of mystery stories who could warmly resent the moral betrayal of the reader when the author played unfairly with him. He was a craftsman, skilled in the fine art of woodwork. He was tenacious and unremitting in seeking principles of order in human affairs, yet free from dogmatism and open to criticism and advice from his youngest associates. He was a kindly and generous man, a source of continuing and friendly inspiration to students and colleagues alike. In his life’s work Mitchell served the human race. In his own being he helped to give dignity to that race.

 

Source: Memorial Minute on Professor Wesley C. Mitchell read by Professor F. C. Mills at the meeting of Faculty of Political Science of February 18, 1949. Appended to the Minutes of the Faculty Meeting.

Image Source:Foundation for the Study of Cycles Website  .

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Economists NBER

NBER. Mitchell to Burns about Friedman. 1945

 

 

Reading the letter written by Wesley Clair Mitchell, the Director of Research at the NBER, to Arthur Burns in which Mitchell offers discouraging words regarding an appointment at NBER for Milton Friedman in 1945, it is interesting to see how Milton Friedman and his wife report on the controversy that very clearly influenced Mitchell’s personal opinion of Milton Friedman. What is not yet clear is whether Arthur Burns ultimately made an offer to Friedman or whether it was perhaps the timely offer arranged by George Stigler for Milton Friedman to teach at the University of Minnesota that made a NBER appointment a moot point.

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The Friedmans Remember

The publication of the NBER book by Simon Kuznets and Milton Friedman Incomes from Independent Professional Practice (1945) was delayed four years in part because of the new demands for statistical and economic analyses due to World War II. In Milton Friedman’s judgment the delay was caused “mostly by a controversy about one part of the manuscript” that attributed half the observed excess average income of physicians over dentists to “the difference in ease of entry, produced at least in part by the success of the American Medical Association in limiting entry into medicine.” (pp. 71-72) A member of the special reading committee of directors appointed to evaluate the manuscript, C. Reinhold Noyes, did not agree and wrote “I suggest that the subject of freedom of entry is a hot poker and be dropped.” Friedman described how he and Kuznets wrote eighty pages worth of memos in response to this and other criticisms of Noyes. In his account of the controversy, Milton Friedman has nothing but praise for Wesley Clair Mitchell: “Three years of back and forth discussion followed, with Wesley Mitchell…supporting the scientific freedom of bureau authors…In later years I came to appreciate how rare is the combination of toughness and diplomacy that Mitchell demonstrated in defense of our scientific freedom.” (pp. 74-76)

Rose Friedman wrote about her worries about her husband’s job prospects after World War II ended.

“Presumably he could have gone back to the Treasury but that was the last thing he wanted to do. A government career was never Milton’s choice. He could always return to the National Bureau, but I knew that too was not Milton’s preference. An academic career was what he wanted. By early September, when we moved back to our apartment in Manhattan, Milton had received no offer for the fall. As an inveterate worrier always fearing the worst, I was not happy. I remember very well a visit from the Burnses and Arthur’s attempt, while Milton was temporarily out of the room to reassure me by telling me that Milton was very gifted and would make it to the top and that I had no reason to be concerned.” (p. 147)

 

Source: Milton and Rose D. Friedman, Two Lucky People: Memoirs (Chicago, 1998).

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Letter from Wesley Clair Mitchell to Arthur Burns

 

Huckleberry Rocks
Greensboro, Vermont

August 27 1945

Dear Arthur

Milton offers a problem that is painful indeed, but we ought to face it squarely. You know how highly I value Simon’s [Kuznets] judgment as well as your own. Both of you have longer + more intimate acquaintance with M. than have I. I am sure both of you try to be objective about him. So do I. That we differ must be due to the unlike weights we attach to qualities we agree, or admit, he possesses.

We agree about his acute mind, about his thorough training in mathematical statistics + mathematical economics, about his creative powers at least in the first of these fields and probably in the second, about his personal likeability, + about his honesty of intention. We must admit that he has fooled himself, unwittingly, + thereby fooled all three of us who were so predisposed to accept his findings. Do you remember that first paper in which M. argued that the incomes of physicians run substantially higher than those of dentists, + the criticisms Fred Mills made of the averages on which M. rested his conclusion? Simon was annoyed by Mills; you were annoyed by him; I was a little annoyed; but Mills was right in large part. Then came the second + graver case brought out by Noyes’ rather brutal attack which enlisted my sympathies as well as yours + Simon’s warmly on Milton’s side. M. drew up a table that seemed to settle the critical issue in his favor. It was made from data he had collected + studied. We knew nothing about these materials in detail. Simon accepted the results. You accepted them. I accepted them with pleasure. Noyes’ second set of criticisms forced a more searching examination. I put in more than a month of careful study + concluded that M. had misused his data in several ways + reached an indefensible conclusion. The best thing about that sad affair was that M. frankly admitted his errors.

I think Milton’s troubles arose from accepting a conclusion about the monopolistic practice of the medical societies, feeling sure that restriction of entry must tend to increase the incomes of medical practitioners, + so accepting at face value any statistical evidence that pointed in the direction he knew to be right. We are all of us subject to this type of error. We examine far more critically evidence that appears to run counter to our hypotheses than evidence that supports them. But M. seems to me worse than most of us on this respect.

Another weakness that I think hurts Milton is lack of interest in and appreciation of non-rational factors that influence, + sometimes dominate, economic behavior. They cannot be handled effectively by the calculus of economic theory concerned with what it is to the interest of men to do. Milton’s clever appraisal of the effect of the higher costs of medical than of dental education is a brilliant specimen of this sort of theorizing. Of course he knows his argument is most unrealistic + says so. Under pressure of criticisms he stressed his qualifications still further. What does such an analysis really add to our knowledge of how men choose their occupations? Can’t the simple bits of truth in the proposition that high costs of training limit the number who enter a profession be put better in simpler form? Why work out an accountant’s estimate in detail when you have to add that few men are able to do such work correctly; that still fewer possess the concrete evidence needed to give the estimate some air of reality; that a man clever enough to do the job + possessed of the factual data would realize that conditions might well change by the time he or his son was ready to set up in practice, + that no one should suppose that choices are really made in this way?

I wish I could share your intuitive faith that M. “has more to contribute to economic science than any man of his generation.” If only we could find the man of whom this remark is true + draw him into the National Bureau, I should be happy indeed! Whoever he may be, he has more insight into human nature than Milton has been blessed with.

Nor do I think you would be wise in taking on a man whom you would have to follow through all the details of his work to make sure that his deficiencies, genuine or problematical, would never again embarrass us. As director of research, you need colleagues who know a great deal more than you will have time to learn about the materials they are severally handling. The kind of watching M. needs is not critical examination of his statistical methods + general reasoning, but detailed study of his data + the way he uses them. That is a time consuming job. None of us did that for M. until far too late. I must accept primary responsibility for this error of omission. I don’t want to see you put in a position where your conscience will force you to spend weeks in making good the guarantee you suggest.

You know that I am grieved to write as I do. To me it seems that you are letting admiration for Milton’s technical proficiencies + personal liking warp your judgment. Loyalty to the aims we both cherish requires me to be candid, though at cost to your feelings as well as mine. If you can produce genuine evidence that my present opinions are wrong, I shall be glad. In the meantime, please do your best to give proper weight to my misgivings.

[…]

Ever yours

[signed]

Wesley C. Mitchell

 

Source: Arthur F. Burns Papers at the Economists’ Papers Archives. Duke University, David M. Rubenstein Library. Box 2, Folder “Correspondence: Wesley Clair Mitchell 1911-1945”.

Image Source: Columbia 250 Website:  Arthur F. Burns,  Milton Friedman. Foundation for the Study of Cycles Website: Wesley Clair Mitchell.