From 1955 through 1961 the University of Chicago economics Ph.D. alumnus (1950) and early Cowles Commission researcher, Carl Christ, was associate professor at the University of Chicago. I stumbled upon the following reading lists for his two quarter econometrics sequence from 1957 filed away in Milton Friedman’s papers along with Econ 300A and 300B (Price Theory and Distribution) reading lists.
It is interesting to see that input-output theory and linear programming are still considered parts of “econometrics” at even this relatively advanced date.
The next post will provide life and career information as well as anecdotes shared by former students and colleagues following his death in April 2017.
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Economics 314 and 315
Econometrics and Special Topics in Econometrics
READING LISTS
Winter and Spring 1957
Mr. Christ
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Econometrics “Texts”
Chiefly for 314:
Tinbergen, Jan, Econometrics.
For both 314 and 315:
Tintner, Gerhard, Econometrics.
Klein, Lawrence R., A Textbook of Econometrics.
Hood, William C., and Tjalling C. Koopmans, Studies in Econometric Method (Cowles Commission Monograph 14). Especially chapters 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 9. (Chapter 6 is chiefly for Economics 315).
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Statistical Inference (Including Regression and Correlation)
In addition to relevant parts of books listed above, the following are useful. They are approximately in increasing order of difficulty.
Chiefly for 314:
Wallis, W. Allen, and Harry V. Roberts, Statistics: A New Approach. Especially the following sections and chapters.
2.8; 4.5-6; 5; 6.1, 6.5; 8.7; 9; 10.9-12; 12; 14.1-2, 14.5-6, 14.8; 15; 17; 18; 19
Walker, Helen M., and Lev, Statistical Inference.
For both 314 and 315:
Ezekiel, Mordecai, Methods of Correlation Analysis, 2nd edition.
Yule, George Udny, and Kendall, An Introduction to the Theory of Statistics (not the earlier book by Yule alone).
Snedecor, George W., Statistical Methods.
Fisher, Ronald A., Statistical Methods for Research Workers, 6th edition or later.
Tippett, L. H. C., The Methods of Statistics.
Hoel, Paul G., Introduction to Mathematical Statistics.
Chiefly for 315:
Anderson, R. L., and T. A. Bancroft, Statistical Theory in Research.
Mood, A. M., Introduction to the Theory of Statistics.
Wilks, S. S., Mathematical Statistics.
Cramer, Harald, Mathematical Methods of Statistics.
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Econometric Techniques and Problems (Including the Estimation of Parameters)
In addition to relevant sections of books cited under I and II above, see the following. Items marked with an asterisk(*) are particularly important.
Chiefly for 314:
Working, E. J., “What do Statistical ‘Demand Curves’ Show? QJE 41 (February, 1927), pp. 212-35. Reprinted in AEA Readings in Price Theory, pp. 97-115.
*Christ, Carl F., “History of the Cowles Commission,” in Cowles Commission, Economic Theory and Measurement. (20th Annual Report). Especially pp. 12-13, 30 (bottom)-41, 47 (middle)-60.
*Koopmans, Tjalling C., “Identification Problems in Economic Model Construction,” Econometrica 17 (April, 1949), pp. 125-44. Reprinted as chapter 2 in Hood and Koopmans (cited under I above), pp. 27-48.
*Marschak, Jacob, “Economic Structure, Path, Policy, and Prediction,” AER, XXXVII (May, 1947), pp. 81-4.
For both 314 and 315:
Koopmans, Tjalling C., “The Logic of Econometric Business Cycle Research,” JPE 49 (April, 1941), pp. 157-81.
*Haavelmo, Trygve, “The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations,” Econometrica 11 (January, 1943), pp. 1-12.
*Marschak, Jacob, “Econometric Measurements for Policy and Prediction”, Chapter 1 in Hood and Koopmans (cited under I above), pp. 1-26.
*Bennion, E. G., “The Cowles Commission’s ‘Simultaneous Equation Approach’”, Rev. Econ. and Statistics, XXXIV (February, 1952), pp. 49-56.
*Meyer, John R., and Miller, “Some Comments on the ‘Simultaneous Equations Approach’”, Rev. Econ. and Statistics, XXXVI (February, 1954), pp. 88-92.
*Bronfenbrenner, Jean, “Sources and Size of Least Squares Bias in a Two-Equation Model,” chapter 9 in Hood and Koopmans (cited under I above), pp. 221-35.
*Haavelmo, Trygve, “Methods of Measuring the Marginal Propensity to Consume,” JASA 42 (March, 1947), pp. 105-22. Reprinted as chapter 4 in Hood and Koopmans (cited under I above), pp. 75-91.
Foote, R. J., and K. A. Fox, Analytical Tools for Measuring Demand, U. S. Department of Agriculture Handbook No. 64.
*Klein, Lawrence R., “On the Interpretation of Theil’s Method of Estimation of Economic Relations,” Metro-economica 7 (December, 1955).
*Basmann, Robert, “A Generalized Classical Method of Linear Estimation of Coefficients in a Structural Equation”, Econometrica 25 (January, 1957).
Chiefly for 315 (in chronological order):
*Haavelmo, T., “The Probability Approach in Econometrics,” Econometrica 12 (1944), Supplement.
*Koopmans, Tjalling C., “Statistical Estimation of Simultaneous Economic Relationships,” JASA 40 (December, 1945), pp. 448-66.
Cochrane, Donald, and Guy H. Orcutt, “Application of Least Squares Regression to Relationships Containing Autocorrelated Error Terms,” JASA 44 (March, 1949), pp. 32-61.
Orcutt, Guy H. and Donald Cochrane, “A Sampling Study of the Merits of Autoregressive and Reduced Form Transformations in Regression Anaysis,” JASA 44 (September, 1949), pp. 356-72.
Koopmans, Tjalling C., ed., Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models (Cowles Commission Monograph 10).
*Koopmans, Tjalling C., and W. C. Hood, “The Estimation of Simultaneous Linear Economic Relationships,” chapter 6 in Hood and Koopmans (cited under I above), pp. 112-99.
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Statistical Tests for Econometric Equations
For both 314 and 315:
Durbin, James, and G. S. Watson, “Testing for Serial Correlation in Least Squares Regression. II.” Biometrika 38 (June, 1951), pp. 159-78.
Hotelling, Harold, “The Selection of Variates for Use in Prediction,” Annals Math. Stat. 11 (1940), pp. 271-83.
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Aggregate Econometric Models of the U. S. Economy
For both 314 and 315:
Tinbergen, Jan, Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, Vol. II: Business Cycles in the U.S.A., 1919-1932.
Klein, L. R., Economic Fluctuations in the U.S., 1921-1941 (Cowles Commission Monograph 11).
Clark, Colin, “A System of Equations Explaining the U.S. Trade Cycle 1921-1941,” Econometrica Vol. 17 (April, 1949), pp. 93-123.
Christ, Carl, “A Test of An Econometric Model for the U.S., 1921-1947,” in Conference on Business Cycles (N.B.E.R.), pp. 35-129.
Valavanis-Vail, Stefan, “An Econometric Model of Growth, U.S.A. 1869-1953,” AER 45 (May, 1955), pp. 208-21, 225-7.
Klein, L. R., and Arthur Goldberger, An Econometric Model of the U.S., 1929-1952 (Contributions to Economic Analysis, No. IX).
Fox, Karl A., “Econometric Models of the U.S., “ JPE 64 (April, 1956), pp. 128-42.
Christ, Carl F., “Aggregate Economic Models,” AER 46 (June, 1956), pp. 385-408
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Demand Studies
For both 314 and 315:
Schultz, Henry, Theory and Measurement of Demand.
Girshick, M. A., and Trygve Haavelmo, “Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Food,” Econometrica 15 (April, 1947), pp. 79-110. Partly reprinted as chapter 5 in Hood and Koopmans (cited under I above), pp. 92-111.
Wold, Herman, and Lars Jureen, Demand Analysis.
Fox, Karl A., The Analysis of Demand for Farm Products (U. S. Department of Agriculture Technical Bulletin No. 1081).
Working, Elmer J., Demand for Meat (American Institute of Meat Packing).
Stone, Richard N., The Measurement of Consumers’ Expenditure and Behaviour in the U.K., 1920-1938, Vol. I (National Institute of Economic and Social Research, London).
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Consumption Functions
For both 314 and 315:
Ferber, Robert, A Study of Aggregate Consumption Functions (N.B.E.R.).
Modigliani, Franco, and R. E. Brumberg, “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function,” in Kenneth Kurihara, ed., Post Keynesian Economics.
Brumberg, R. E., “An Approximation to the Aggregate Saving Function,” Economic Journal 66 (March, 1956).
Nerlove, Marc, “Estimates of the Elasticities of Supply of Selected Agricultural Commodities,” Journal of Farm Economics 38 (May, 1956), pp. 496-512. Read primarily for the expectations hypothesis.
Friedman, Milton, and Gary Becker, “A Statistical Illusion in Judging Keynesian Models,” JPE 65 (February, 1957).
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Other Applications
Chiefly for 314:
Douglas, Paul H., “Are There Laws of Production?” AER 38 (March, 1948), pp. 1-41.
Mendershausen, Horst, “On the Significance of Professor Douglas’ Production Function,” Econometrica 6 (April, 1938), pp. 143-53.
Chiefly for 315:
Hildreth, Clifford, and Frank Jarrett, A Statistical Study of Livestock Production and Marketing (Cowles Commission Monograph 15).
Prais, S. J., and H. Houthakker, The Analysis of Family Budgets (Cambridge Univ., Dept. of Applied Economics).
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Input-Output
Chiefly for 314:
Evans and Hoffenberg, “The Interindustry Relations Study for 1947,” Rev. Econ. and Statistics, XXXIV (May, 1952), pp. 97-142.
Dorfman, “The Nature and Significance of Input-Output,” Rev. Econ. and Statistics, XXXVI (May, 1954), pp. 121-33.
Christ, Carl F., “A Review of Input-Output Analysis,” in Conference in Research on Income and Wealth, Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 18: Input-Output Analysis: An Appraisal (N.B.E.R.).
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Linear Programming
Chiefly for 314:
Dorfman, “Mathematical, or ‘Linear’, Programming,” AER XLIII (December, 1953), pp. 797-825.
Chipman, “Linear Programming,” Rev. Econ. and Statistics, XXXV (May, 1953), pp. 101-17.
Heady, “Simplified Presentation and Logical Aspects of Linear Programming Technique,” Journal of Farm Economics, XXXVI (December, 1954), pp. 1035-48.
Boles, “Linear Programming and Farm Management Analysis,” Journal of Farm Economics, XXXVII (February, 1955), pp. 1-24.
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Calculus
The following (arranged in increasing order of difficulty) are useful.
Thompson, Sylvanus P., Calculus Made Easy.
Allen, R. G. D., Mathematical Analysis for Economists.
Courant, R., Differential and Integral Calculus (2 vols.).
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Matrix Algebra and Determinants
In addition to the following, see appendices in Tintner and in Klein (cited under I above), and special sections in Anderson and Bancroft and in Mood (cited under II above):
Aitken, A. C., Determinants and Matrices.
Albert, A. A., Introduction to Algebraic Theories.
Ferrar, William L., Algebra.
Wade, Thomas L., The Algebra of Vectors and Matrices.
Allen, R. G. D., Mathematical Economics, Chapters 12-14.
Source: The Hoover Institution Archives. Papers of Milton Friedman, Box 77, Folder 1 “University of Chicago 300A & B”.
Image Source. Detail of “Carl Christ, teaching economics-1963” (second from left at seminar table) from the Carl Christ memorial webpage of the Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University.