In Milton Friedman’s papers at the Hoover Institution Archives are filed copies of three preliminary exams for graduate students in economics from the Winter Quarter of 1969. Recent posts featured the transcriptions of the price theory prelim and the macroeconomics prelim ( or “income, employment and price level” as was the Chicago wont to say). This post takes a walk on the monetary side, namely, with the prelim for the field of money and banking. This exam was followed in the archival folder by a handwritten table by Friedman with the points awarded for the seventeen candidates who took the exam. Out of a maximum score of 240 possible points, the top exam received 189 points. Failing grades were for 118 points and below (four examinees). The exams have Friedman’s mostly illegible notes written on them, presumably indications of the correct answers. Perhaps some day there will be a brave soul with greater patience than I possess who will try transcribing these academic scribblings of a few years back.
The reading list for Milton Friedman’s money course from the Winter Quarter 1970 has been posted earlier.
_________________
MONEY AND BANKING
Preliminary Examination for the Ph.D. and the A.M. Degree
Winter Quarter, 1969
WRITE THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION ON YOUR EXAMINATION PAPER:
Your code number and NOT your name
Name of examination
Date of examination
Results of the examination will be sent to you by letter
Answer all questions. Time: 4 hours
- [40] The Federal Reserve has recently altered the method of calculating required and actual reserves. Required reserves are now calculated on the basis of average deposits two weeks earlier. Actual reserves equal average cash in vault two weeks earlier plus deposits at Federal Reserve Banks the current week. (There are a few other minor technical details that can be neglected.)
Under this new system, the adjustment mechanism of the banking system is in principle dynamically unstable (explosive) for any one week by itself.
(a) Explain why the system is dynamically unstable.
(b) What factors render the system stable in practice?
How does the new system affect:
(c) The Federal Reserve’s ability to control the money supply;
(d) The significance of excess reserves, free reserves, and borrowings.
- [25] “Central bankers were highly receptive to the Keynesian analysis of monetary policy because it fitted in with their own preconceptions, which were based on the real-bills doctrine.” Explain why you agree or disagree, in the process summarizing the history of the real-bills doctrine.
- [25] A major relationship in most income-determination models is the negative interest elasticity of investment. But during the post war period in the U.S., falling interest rates have been accompanied by declining rates of investment in plant and equipment and a rising volume of residential construction.
(a) Does that suggest that residential construction is more interest-elastic than investment in plant and equipment?
(b) How far, if at all, has the observed pattern been related to central bank policy and the structure of financial intermediaries?
- [40 ]
(a) Construct a model for the analysis of economic policy in a closed economy, with an exogenous money supply, an income-elastic tax system, flexible prices, and saving a constant fraction of income.
(b) For a unique equilibrium, which variables do you regard as determined by this model, and which outside the model?
(c) Distinguish between monetary and fiscal policy in terms of your model.
(d) Can monetary policy be used to maintain stable prices? Can fiscal policy? Indicate the conditions in the model necessary for only one or the other to be effective.
- [40] Consider the problem of explaining the response in a stationary economy to a change that leads to increased unemployment of resources, such as an unanticipated fall in the demand for goods and services. Suppose that any increases in unemployment are temporary, with dynamic properties of the system such that there will be a return to an “equilibrium” or “natural” rate of unemployment if no further unanticipated shocks occur.
(a) Explain what the “natural rate of unemployment” means.
(b) Assume that the quantity of money is constant. Sketch out an explanation of the time path of output, employment of labor, price of goods, price of labor, and interest rate.
(c) Indicate what each of the following concepts means and how, if at all, each is relevant in explaining the adjustments: search unemployment, labor as a quasi-fixed factor of production, Phillips curve, expectations.
- [40] The loss in real value of money during inflation has been likened to a tax. Assume that inflation is fully anticipated. How much is the tax, who bears it, and who receives the proceeds:
(a) If there are 100 percent reserves and the central bank pays no interest on reserves, with commercial banks otherwise regulated?
(b) Same as (a) except there is fractional reserve banking?
(c) If there is fractional reserve banking and the central bank pays no interest on reserves, with commercial banks forbidden to pay a nominal rate of interest deposits higher than would be paid in the absence of inflation?
(d) Same as (c) except banks are also forbidden to charge nominal interest rates on loans higher than would prevail in the absence of inflation?
(e) If there is fractional reserve banking, no interest rate regulation on commercial banks, and the central bank pays interest on reserves totaling to the interest payments earned on its assets?
- [30] Assume that the U.S. stops pegging the price of gold and of other currencies, and in reaction to this measure[?], the European common market countries form a currency bloc linked internally by fixed exchange rates and permit the exchange rates of the common market currencies to float relative to the dollar. Assume that all other currencies float relative to the dollar.
Compare monetary adjustment within the two currency areas (i.e. adjustment of the fifty states of the U.S. as compared to adjustment of the six countries of the common market).
Source: Hoover Institution Archives. Papers of Milton Friedman, Box 77, Folder 8 “University of Chicago , Econ 331”.
Image Source: Milton Friedman (undated) from University of Chicago Photographic Archive, apf1-06231, Special Collections Research Center, University of Chicago Library.