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Transcribed from items in the Milton Friedman papers at the Hoover Institution today’s posting includes the bibliographic handout provided by Milton Friedman to the participants in his graduate seminar “Monetary Dynamics” that took place in the Spring Quarter of 1952 along with the official class list. We note that one of the graduate students enrolled in the seminar was Gary S. Becker. It is also interesting to note that “empirical studies” essentially meant “case studies” as of mid-twentieth century.
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The University of Chicago
Office of the Registrar
OFFICIAL CLASS LIST
SPRING QR. 1952
Instructor: FRIEDMAN MILTON
Department: ECON
Course number: 432
Student name:
Axilrod, Stephen H.
Becker, Gary S.
Deaver, John V.
Drayton, James
Fisher, Lawrence
Klein, John
Oort, Coenraad J.
Timberlake, Richard H. Jr.
Venetianer, Edmond
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Economics 432: Monetary Dynamics
Spring Quarter, 1952
- The central topic for this quarter will be monetary inflation. We hope to cover the theory of monetary inflation and empirical evidence on monetary inflations. The major issues in this area are, the process whereby changes in the stock of money produce their effect on prices and output or conversely, whereby changes in prices and output affect the stock of money; the role of the interest rate in inflation or, conversely, the effect of monetary changes on the interest rate; the role of exchange rates in monetary inflation as both cause and effect; the relative value of alternative simplified theories for predicting the course of inflationary movement; the role and problems of governmental monetary policy in inflationary periods; empirical regularities in monetary inflations and hyperinflations.
- We shall of course not be able to cover all these issues at all adequately; the interests of the members of the seminar will guide the selection made.
- There is a vast literature on these problems. The following bibliography, despite its length, is highly selective and is designed to suggest material available and to give leads to people working on particular topics rather than to be exhaustive. The three parts into which the essentially theoretical material is classified (1 to 3) are by no means mutually exclusive and many entries could with equal justification have been classified elsewhere; the sections are meant only to indicate major broad divisions and the order within the sections, the rough lines of theoretical development. Similarly, many of the items in Section 4, supposedly dealing with policy, could readily have been classified in the earlier sections; and many of the entries in section 5, labeled empirical studies, contain discussions of policy or of theory.
1. Classical analysis of inflation
A. Original sources
David Hume, “Of Money,” “Of Interest” in Essays, Moral, Political and Literary, part II (first published 1752).
Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations (1776), Vol I. Bk. II, Chap 4; Bk 1, Ch xi, part of Pt. III (pp. 188-210 in Cannan edition); Bk. II, Ch. 11, esp. pp. 283-87 of Cannan edition.
Henry Thornton, An Essay on Paper Credit (1802), esp pp. 254-8, 281, 296-7, and 335-9 of reprint.
David Ricardo, Principles of Political Economy, (3rd ed. London (1821), Ch. 21; The Works and Correspondence, edited by P. Sraffa, Volume III, passim. (Cambridge 1951).
Nassau Senior, On the Value of Money (1840)
________________, Three Lectures on the Cost of Obtaining Money (1930)
John Stuart Mill, Principles of Political Economy, (1848), Bk. III, Ch. 8, 9, 23.
J. E. Cairnes, “Essays Toward a Solution of the Gold Question,” (written, 1858 to 1860) in Essays in Political Economy, Theoretical and Applied, (London, 1873) pp. 1 to 165.
B. Secondary sources
T. E. Gregory, Introduction to Tooke and Newmarch (London (1928), esp. pp. 22-31.
F. A. Hayek, “A Note on the Development of the Doctrine of ‘Forced Savings’”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1932, pp. 123-33.
J. W. Angell, The Theory of International Prices – history, criticism, and restatement (Cambridge, Mass., 1926)
Jacob Viner, Studies in the Theory of International Trade, (New York, 1937), Ch. III, IV, V.
Lloyd W. Mints, History of Banking Theory (Chicago, 1945)
2. Neo-classical
A. Swedish school
Knut Wicksell, Interest and Prices, esp introduction, by Bertil Ohlin, Preface, (London 1936) and Ch. 5-9.
_______________, Lectures, Vol. 2, Ch. IV; pp. 127-222 (London 1935)
Gunner Myrdal, Monetary Equilibrium, London (1939).
E. Lundberg, Studies in the Theory of Economic Expansion, (Stockholm, 1937)
E. Lindahl, Studies in the Theory of Money and Credit (London, 1939)
A. P. Lerner, “Swedish Stepping Stones in Economic Theory,” Canadian Journal of Economics, November 1940.
Brinley Thomas, Monetary Policy and Crisis, Ch. 3 and 4. (1936)
J. Marschak, “Wicksell’s Two Interest Rates,” Social Research, Nov. 1941.
B. Austrian school
L. von Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit (1934) Eng. Translation.
F. A. Hayek, Prices and Production (2nd edition (1935)).
C. Cambridge school
Alfred Marshall, Principles of Economics, pp. 593-5; Money, Credit, and Commerce, pp. 38-50 (1923)
__________________, Official Papers, Ch. II, esp. 38-41, 45-6, 123-32, 157-60. (1926)
D. H. Robertson, Essays in Monetary Theory, esp. Ch. II, XII (1940)
__________________, Banking Policy and the Price Level (3rd ed, 1950)
__________________, “Notes on the Theory of Money,” Readings in Monetary Theory, (Blakiston, 1951), pp. 159-61.
A. C. Pigou, Industrial Fluctuations (1927)
J. M. Keynes, Monetary Reform (London, 1923) especially Ch. III.
F. Langston, The Trade Cycle.
D. Other
J. M. Keynes, A Treatise on Money, esp Vol I, Ch. 13, pp. 293-302, Vol. II, Ch. 25, 30, 32, 33 (1930).
R. G. Hawtrey, The Art of Central Banking (1933), esp. pp. 116-207, 366-71.
__________________, Capital Employment, (1937) Ch. 4-6.
Irving Fisher, Elementary Principles of Economics, Ch. IX (N.Y. 1912) (revised)
__________________, The Purchasing Power of Money, (1926) Ch. 8.
__________________, The Rate of Interest, Ch. 8, 14, 16.
Bertrand Nogaro, Modern Monetary Systems (London, 1927)
M. Albert Aftalion, Monnaie, Prix et Change (Paris, 1927)
Joseph Schumpeter, Business Cycles, Vol II, Ch. 8 (1939)
MacMillan Report, Royal Commission on Finance and Industry, Cmd 3897 (1931), Ch. 11, pp. 92-160.
E. Critiques
H. Ellis, German Monetary Theory (1934) Ch. 8, 9, 19.
R. J. Saulnier, Contemporary Monetary Theory (1938)
Arthur Marget, The Theory of Prices (1938, 1942) Vol 1, Ch. 2, 12-16, Vol 2, Ch. 3.
R. S. Sayers, Modern Banking, Ch. VI (1939, rev. ed.)
G. Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, (1941, 3rd ed.) Part I.
3. Keynes of General Theory
A. General
J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. (London, 1936)
R. F. Kahn, “The Relation of Home Investment to the Multiplier,” Economic Journal, 1931.
Joan Robinson, Essays in the Theory of Employment (1938)
________________, “The Economics of Hyper-Inflation,” (Economic Journal, Sept. 1938), “War Time Inflation,” both in Collected Economic Papers (New York, 1951).
M. Kalecki, Essays on the Theory of Economic Fluctuations (1939)
J. R. Hicks, Value and Capital (2nd ed. 1946) Parts 3 and 4.
Alvin H. Hansen, Fiscal Policy and Full Employment, (1941).
________________, Monetary Theory and Fiscal Policy (1949) Chapter. 7, 8, 9.
________________, Economic Policy and Full Employment (1947).
L. Klein, The Keynesian Revolution (1947)
T. Wilson, Fluctuations in Income and Employment (3rd ed. 1948)
W. Fellner, A Treatise on War Inflation (1942)
A. G. Hart, Money, Debt and Economic Activity, (1948) Ch. 10.
A. P. Lerner, The Economics of Control, Ch. 21-25 (1944)
Walter A. Salant, “The Inflationary Gap, Meaning and Significance for Policy Making,” American Economic Review (June, 1942) pp. 308-14.
Milton Friedman, “Discussion of the Inflationary Gap,” American Economic Review (June, 1942) pp. 314-20.
Arthur Smithies, “The Behavior of Money National Income under Inflationary Conditions,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1942.
T. C. Koopmans, “The Dynamics of Inflation,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1942, pp. 53-65 (comment by A. Smithies and reply, pp. 189-90.)
Franklin Holzman, “Income Determination in Open Inflation,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1950.
Clark Warburton, “Monetary Expansion and the Inflationary Gap,” American Economic Review, 1944.
Lloyd A. Metzler, “Wealth, Saving, and the Rate of Interest,” Journal of Political Economy, April, 1951.
B. Wage-Price Spiral
Ralph Turvey, “Period Analysis and Inflation,” Economica, 1949.
________________, “Some Aspects of the Theory of Inflation in a Closed Economy,” Economic Journal, Sept. 1951.
J. Dusenberry, “The Mechanics of Inflation,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1950.
W. A. Morton, “Trade Unionism, Full Employment, and Inflation” American Economic Review, March 1950.
_______________, “Keynesianism and Inflation,” Journal of Political Economy, June 1951.
M. W. Reder, “Theoretical Problems of a National Wage Policy,” Canadian Journal of Economics (Feb. 1948)
_____________, “On Money Wages,” Industrial Relations Research Association conference, 1950.
A. Rees, “Postwar Wage Determination in the Basic Steel Industry,” American Economic Review (June 1951).
4. Government Policy in Inflationary Periods
David Ricardo, “Funding System,” in The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, ed by Piero Sraffa (Cambridge, 1951), Vol. IV, esp pp. 185-200; also Vol. III, passim.
A. C. Pigou, The Political Economy of War (revised ed., 1940)
A. G. Hart, E. D. Allen, and collaborators, Paying for Defense (Philadelphia, 1941)
M. Kalecki, “General Rationing,” Bulletin of Oxford Institute of Statistics, January 1941.
G. L. Bach, “Rearmament, Recovery, and Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review, 1941
W. A. Wallis, “How to Ration Consumer Goods and Control Their Prices,” American Economic Review, 1942.
Carl Shoup, Milton Friedman, and Ruth Mack, Taxing to Prevent Inflation (New York, 1943).
Milton Friedman, “The Spendings Tax as a Wartime Fiscal Measure,” American Economic Review, 1943.
J. J. Polak, “On the Theory of Price Control,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1945.
L. Seltzer, “Is a Rise in Interest Rates Desirable or Inevitable,” American Economic Review, December, 1945.
R. I. Robinson, “Monetary Aspects of Public Debt Policy,” Postwar Economic Studies #3, Board of Governors of Federal Reserve System.
H. C. Wallich, “The Changing Significance of the Interest Rate,” American Economic Review, December 1946.
R. G. Hawtrey, “Monetary Aspects of the Economic Situation,” American Economic Review, March 1948.
Ten Economists on Inflation, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1948.
L. V. Chandler, “Federal Reserve Policy and Federal Debt,” American Economic Review, March 1949.
R. S. Sayers, “Central Banking in Light of Recent Experience,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1949.
H. C. Murphy, The National Debt in War and Transition (1950)?E. A. Goldenweiser, American Monetary Policy (1951)
L. W. Mints, Monetary Policy for a Competitive Society. (1950)
Subcommittee on Monetary, Credit and Fiscal Policies (“Douglas subcommittee”), Hearings, 81st Congress, 1st Session and Report, 81st Congress, 2nd Session, Senate Document 129.
“The Controversy over Monetary Policy,” (Seymour Harris, Lester Chandler, Milton Friedman, Alvin Hansen, Abba Lerner, and James Tobin), Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1951.
J. K. Galbraith, The Theory of Price Control (1952)
Joint Committee on the Economic Report, Monetary Policy and the Management of the Public Debt, Joint Committee Print, 82nd Congress, 2nd Session (Washington, 1952) in two volumes.
5. Empirical Studies
W. C. Mitchell, History of the Greenbacks (Chicago, 1903)
_______________, Gold, Prices, and Wages under the Greenback Standard (Berkeley, 1908)
N. S. Silberling, “Financial and Monetary Policy of Great Britain during the Napoleonic Wars,” Quarterly Journal of Economics (1924), pp. 214-33, 397-439.
C. Bresciani-Turroni, The Economics of Inflation.
E. L. Dulles, The French Franc (New York, 1929)
W. De Bordes, The Austrian Crown (London, 1924)
S. S. Katzenellenbaum Russian Currency and Banking, 1914-24 (London, 1925)
James H. Rogers, The Process of Inflation in France, 1914-27 (New York, 1929)
Frank D. Graham, Exchange, Prices, and Production in Hyper-inflation: Germany, 1920-23 (Princeton, 1930)
Seymour Harris, The Assignats (1930)
R. A. Lester, Monetary Experiments (1939)
E. J. Hamilton, “Prices and Wages at Paris under John Law’s System,” Quarterly Journal of Economics (November, 1936).
______________, “Prices and Wages in Southern France under John Law’s System,” Economic History, a supplement of the Economic Journal (February, 1937)
Bertrand Nogaro, “Hungary’s Monetary Crisis,” American Economic Review (Sept. 1948).
Henry W. Spiegel, “A Century of Prices in Brazil,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 1948
A. J. Brown, “Inflation and the Flight from Cash,” Yorkshire Bulletin of Economic and Social Research, Vol. 1 (Sept., 1949)
L. V. Chandler, Inflation in the United States, 1940-49. (1951)
Milton Friedman, “Price, Income, and Monetary Changes during Three Wartime Periods,” [American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, May 1952, pp. 612-625]
Source: Hoover Institution Archives. Milton Friedman Papers, Box 78, Folder 4 (University of Chicago, Econ 432).