According to the Annual Report of the President of Harvard for 1959-60 the following economic seminar taught by Professor Thomas C. Schelling during the Spring term had only two graduate students officially registered for the course (and they were probably from the Graduate School of Public Administration). In the following year fourteen students were enrolled in the course.
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ECONOMICS 207
Economics and National Security
Spring 1960
READING ASSIGNMENTS
Note: Reading indented items is optional; but all starred items should be looked at even if not read carefully.
GENERAL BACKGROUND
Washington Center for Foreign Policy Research (Arnold Wolfers, Director). Developments in Military Technology and Their impact on United States Strategy and Foreign Policy, Committee Print, Committee on Foreign Relations, U. S. Senate, Dec. 6, 1959. Part C, “Technological Developments and the Strategic Equation,” Chapters 1-4, pp. 30-85.
National Planning Association, “1970 Without Arms Control”, A Special Committee Report, Planning Pamphlet 104, May 1958.
Davidon, William C., Kalkstein, Marvin I., Hohenemser, Christoph. “Prerequisites for Nuclear Weapons Manufacture”, in National Planning Association, The Nth Country Problem and Arms Control, Planning Pamphlet No. 108, Jan. 1960, pp. 11-28.
Glasstone, Samuel (ed.). Effects of Nuclear Weapons; Dept. of Defense and Atomic Energy Commission, 1957 edition, pp. 18-33, 90-96, 103-111, 196-202, 209-11, 212-15, 237-8, 345-8, 390-429, 446-54, 524-31, 536-43, glossary p. 544 ff.
I. EFFICIENCY IN MILITARY DECISIONS
Hitch, Charles J., McKean, Roland. “Defense as an Economic Problem”, “Efficiency in Military Decisions”, mimeograph.
Morse, Philip M., Kimball, George E. Methods of Operations Research, New York, The Technology Press and John Wiley and Sons, Inc. 1951, pp. 1-10, 38-60, 63-67 (scan 67-77), 77-80.
Hitch, Charles J. “Economics and Military Operations Research,”Review of Economics and Statistics, XL, 199-209, Aug. 1958.
Schelling, T.C. “Comment”, Symposium on Economics and Operations Research, Review of Economics and Statistics, XL, 221-224, Aug. 1958.
Hoag, Malcolm. “Some complexities in Military Planning,” World Politics, XI, 553-576, July 59.
Enke, Stephen. “Some Economic Aspects of Fissionable Material,”Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXVIII, 217-232, May 54.
Bowers, Robert D. (Col). “Fundamental Equations of Force Survival,” Air University Quarterly Review, X, 82-92, Spring 58.
Karchere, A. Hoeber, F.P. “Combat Problems, Weapons Systems, and the Theory of Allocation,” JORSA, Nov. 53.
Kahn, H. Mann, I. “Techniques of Systems Analysis,” The RAND Corporation, RM-1829-1, 3 Dec. 58 revised June 57, chapters 1, 2, 3, pp. 1-113.
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Enke, Stephen. “An Economist Looks at Air Force Logistics,” Review of Economics and Statistics, XL, 230-39, Aug. 58.
Fisher, Gene H. “Weapon-System Cost Analysis,” Operations Research. Oct. 56, pp. 558-571.
Mendershausen, Horst. “Economic Problems in Air Force Logistics,” American Economic Review, Sept. 58, 632-648.
*Engel, J.H. “A Verification of Lanchester’s Law,” JORSA, May 54, II.
*Brackney, Howard. “The Dynamics of Military Combat,” Operations Research, VII, 30-44, Jan-Feb. 59.
*Firstman, Sidney I. “A Vulnerability Model for Weapon Sites with Interdependent Elements,” Operations Research, VII, 217-25, Mar-Apr. 59.
Weiss, Herbert K. “Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare,” Proceedings of the First International Conference on Operations Research. ORSA, Baltimore, 1957, pp. 82-99.
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II. COPING WITH AN INTELLIGENT ADVERSARY
Kahn, Herman, Mann, Irwin. “Techniques of Systems Analysis,” Chapter 4, “The Two-Sided War,” pp. 114-131; Chapter 5, “Evaluation and Criticism,” pp. 132-161.
Schelling, T.C. “Assumptions About Enemy Behavior,” Lecture 12 in An Appreciation of Systems Analysis, The RAND Corporation, B-90, 1959. (Mimeograph).
Williams, John D. The Compleat Strategyst, New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co. Inc., 1954. Chapters 1 and 2, pp. 1-85. Rest of book optional; suggest scan several of the problems in remaining chapters.
Alchian, Armen A. “The Meaning of Utility Measurement,” American Economic Review, XLIII, 26-50, Mar. 53.
Luce, R. Duncan, Raiffa, Howard. Games and Decisions(New York, 1957), Chapter 2, pp. 2-17, 19-38; Chapter 4, pp. 56-76, 85-87.
Morse, Philip M., Kimball, George E. Methods of Operations Research, “Measure and Countermeasure,” pp. 94-102; “Theoretical Analysis of Countermeasure Action,” pp. 102-109.
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Haywood, O.G. “Military Decision and Game Theory,” JORSA, Nov. 54.
*Hale, J.K., Wicke, H.H. “An Application of Game Theory to Special Weapons Evaluation,” Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, IV, 347-56.
*Dobbie, James M. “On the Allocation of Effort Among Deterrent Systems,” Operations Research, VII, 335-46, May-June 59.
Isbell, J.R., Marlow, W.H. “Attrition Games,” Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, III, 71-94.
*Blackett, D.W. “Some Blotto Games,”Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, I, 55-60, Mar. 54.
Thompson, S.P., Ziffer, A.J. “The Watchdog and the Burglar,” Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, VI, 165-72, June 59.
Caywood, T.E., Thomas, C.J. “Application of Game Theory in Fighter vs. Bomber Combat,” JORSA, III, Nov. 55.
*Antosiewicz, H.A. “Analytic Study of War Games,” NRLQ, II, 181-208, Sept. 55.
Isaacs, Rufus. “The Problem of Aiming and Evasion,” NRLQ, II, 47-68, May-June 55.
Zachrisson, L.E. “A Tank Duel with Game-Theoretic Implications,” NRLQ, IV, 131-38, June 57.
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III. EXPERIMENT AND SIMULATION
Specht, Robert D. “War Games,” The RAND Corporation, P-1041, March 18, 1957.
Thomas, Clayton J., Deemer, Walter L. “The Role of Operational Gaming in Operations Research,” Operations Research, Feb. 57, 1-27.
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Rauner, R.M. Laboratory Evaluation of Supply and Procurement Policies, The RAND Corporation, Report R-323, July 1958.
Thomas, Clayton L. “The Genesis and Practice of Operational Gaming,” Proceedings of the First International Conference on Operations Research; Operations Research Society of America, Baltimore, 1957. Max Davies, et al., eds. pp. 64-81.
Young, John P. “A Survey of Historical Developments in War Games.” Operations Research Office, The Johns Hopkins University, Staff Paper ORO-SP-98, March, 1959. (Mimeo, 108 pages plus bibliography.)
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IV. THE STRATEGY OF POTENTIAL FORCE
Schelling, T.C. “The Retarded Science of International Strategy,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 60.
Brodie, Bernard. Strategy in the Missile Age, Princeton, 1959. Ch. 1, “Introduction,” 3-20; Ch. 6, “Is There a Defense,” 173-222; Ch. 8, “The Anatomy of Deterrence,” 264-304; Ch. 9, “Limited War,” 305-357.
Wohlstetter, Albert. “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Foreign Affairs, Jan. 59, pp. 211-234.
Sherwin, C.W. “Securing Peace through Military Technology,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, XII, 159-165, May 56.
Schelling, T.C. “Bargaining, Communication, and Limited War,”Journal of Conflict Resolution, I, 19-36, Mar. 57.
Schelling, T.C. “The Strategy of Conflict: Prospectus for a Reorientation of Game Theory,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, II, 203-264, Sept. 58.
Rapoport, Anatol. “Lewis F. Richardson’s Mathematical Theory of War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, I, 249-99, Sept. 57; Part IV, ‘The Mathematics of Arms Races,’ pp. 275-82.
Washington Center for Foreign Policy Research (Arnold Wolfers, Director), “Developments…” Part C. Chapters 5, 6; pp. 85-97.
Schelling, T.C. “Surprise Attack and Disarmament,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, XV, 413-18, Dec. 59
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Luce, R. Duncan, Raiffa, Howard. Games and Decisions, New York, 1957, Chapters 5, 6, pp. 88-154.
Washington Center for Foreign Policy Research (Arnold Wolfers, Director), “Developments…” etc. Part D, “The Development of Deterrent and Counterdeterrent Strategies,” pp. 98-104. Part E, “The Crisis of Strategic Nuclear Deterrence,” pp. 105-118.
Schelling, T.C. “Randomization of Threats and Promises,” The RAND Corporation, P-1716, June 5, 1959.
Schelling, T.C. “The Threat That Leaves Something to Chance,” Mimeograph, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University (no date).
Schelling, T.C. “The Reciprocal Fear of Surprise Attack,” The RAND Corporation, P-1342, revised May 58.
Rathjens, George. Ch. 4, in Klaus Knorr (ed.), NATO and American Security, Princeton 1959. “NATO Strategy: Total War,” pp. 65-97.
Hoag, Malcolm. “The Place of Limited War in NATO Strategy,” Ch. 5 of Klaus Knorr (ed.), NATO and American Security, Princeton 1959, pp. 98-126.
Szilard, Leo. “Disarmament and the Problem of Peace,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. II, Oct. 55.
Kaplan, Morton. “Some Problems in the Strategic Analysis of International Politics,” Research Monograph No. 2, Center of International Studies, Princeton, Jan. 1959.
Kaplan, Morton A. “The Strategy of Limited Retaliation,” Policy Memorandum No. 19, Center of International Studies, Princeton, April 1959.
Kaplan, Morton A. “The Calculus of Nuclear Deterrence,” World Politics, XI, 20-43, Oct. 58.
Burns, Arthur Lee. “From Balance to Deterrence: A Theoretical Analysis,” World Politics, IX, 494-529, July 57.
Burns, Arthur Lee. “The Rationale of Catalytic War,” Research Monograph No. 3, Princeton Center of International Studies, Apr. 2, 59.
Rapoport, Anatol. “Lewis F. Richardson’s Mathematical Theory of War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, I, 249-299, Sept. 57.
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V. ECONOMICS OF DISASTER
Hirschleifer, Jack. “Some Thoughts on the Social Structure After a Bombing Disaster,” World Politics, VIII, 206-227, Jan. 56.
Tiryakian, Edward A. “Aftermath of a Thermonuclear Attack on the United States,” Social Problems, VI, 291-303, Spring 1959.
Enke, Stephen. “Controlling Consumers in Future Wars,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, LXXII, 558-573, Nov. 58
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Bear, Donald V.T., Clark, Paul G. “Which Industries Would Be Most Important in a Postwar U.S. Economy?” (Mimeograph).
Hirschleifer, J. “War Damage Insurance, “Review of Economics and Statistics, May 53.
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VI. EXTREMES AND INTANGIBLES IN SOCIAL CHOICE
Hitch, Charles J., McKean, Roland N. “Incommensurables, Uncertainty, and the Enemy,” (Mimeograph, 39 pages).
Kahn, Herman. “How Many Can Be Saved?” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, XV, 30-34, Jan. 59.
Joint Committee on Atomic Energy, “Biological and Environmental Effects of Nuclear War,” Summary Analysis of Hearings, June 22-26, 1959.
Committee on Government Operations, “Atomic Shelter Programs,” Thirty-fourth report of the committee, Aug. 12, 1958.
Deer, James W. “Whatever Happened to Civil Defense,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, XV, 266-7 June 59.
Lapp, Ralph. “Local Fallout Radioactivity,” “Fallout and Home Defense,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, XV, 181-86, 187-91, May 59.
Morgenstern, Oskar. The Question of National Defense. New York 1959, Ch. 5, “Attrition, Shelters and Recovery,” 104-133.
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Schubert, Jack, Lapp, Ralph. Radiation: What It Is and How It Affects You, New York, 1957. Ch. 3, 4, 11, 12.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Radiation and Man. Special Issue, XIV, 1-64, Jan. 58.
The RAND Corporation, Report on a Study of Non-Military Defense, Report R-322-RC, July 1, 1958. 48 pages.
Ramsey, F. A., Jr. “Damage Assessment Systems and their Relationship to Post-Nuclear-Attack Damage and Recovery,” Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, V, 199-219, Sept. 58.
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VII. DESIGN OF EFFICIENT MILITARY INSTITUTIONS
Smithies, Arthur. The Budgetary Process in the United States. New York 1955. Ch. 12: The Defense Budget: Economy and Efficiency in the Defense Program, pp. 278-325.
Lindblom, C.E. “Decision Making in Taxation and Expenditure,” Mimeograph, National Bureau of Economic Research: Conference on Public Finance, April 1959.
Enthoven, Alain, Rowen, Henry. “Defense Planning and Organization,” The RAND Corporation, Paper P-1640, March 17, 59, revised July 28, 59.
Knorr, Klaus. The War Potential of Nations. Princeton, 1956. Ch. 1: “War Potential in the Nuclear Age,” pp. 3-15; Ch. 6: “Wartime Administration,” pp. 99-118; Ch. 7: “The Allocation of Resources,” pp. 119-141.
Schelling, T.C. International Economics, Chapter 30, “Economic Warfare and Strategic Trade Controls,” pp. 487-511.
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Livingston, J. Sterling. “Decision-Making in Weapons Development,” Harvard Business Review, Jan-Feb. 58.
Klein, Burton H. “A Radical Proposal for R and D,” Fortune, May 58, 112-.
Schelling, T. C. Internaitonal Economics. Ch. 31, “Trade Controls and National Security,” 511-532.
Breckner, Norman. “Government Efficiency and the Military ‘Buyer-Seller’ Device,” The RAND Corporation, P-1744, 8 July 1959.
Enthoven, Alain. “Supply and Demand and Military Pay,” RAND P-1186, 30 Sept. 1957.
Cordiner, Ralph. “A Modern Concept of Manpower Management and Compensation for Personnel of the Uniformed Service,” (The Cordiner Report), Defense Advisory Committee on Professional and Technical Compensation, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1957.
Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003 (HUC 8522.2.1). Box 7, Folder: “Economics, 1959-1960”.
Image Source: From an internet page of the Rio Theatre in Vancouver.