The exams transcribed and posted below add to the historical record of Guy Orcutt‘s early attempts at Harvard to introduce undergraduates and graduates to econometrics.
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Previously posted
The bibliography of books and articles on the scientific method for Economics 110 by Guy Orcutt.
The second batch of material from Guy Henderson Orcutt’s undergraduate course Economics 110 at Harvard from 1959-50.
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Empirical Economics (spring term) 1949-50
Economics 110. Announcement, 1949-50
Economics 110. Introduction to Econometrics
Half-course (spring term). Mon., Wed., Fri., at 9. Dr. ——-
The matter will be presented in order of increasing mathematical difficulty. Only simplified models will be used to familiarize the students with the econometric approach: and to complete their knowledge of mathematical tools needed in quantitative economic analysis.
Source. Final Announcement of the Courses of Instruction Offered by the Faculty of Arts and Sciences During 1949-50. Official Register of Harvard University, Vo. XLVI, No. 24 (September, 1949) , p. 79.
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Course Enrollment
Economics 110. Applied Economics. Enrollment 1950
[Economics] 110 Applied Economics. (Sp) Assistant Professor Orcutt.
Total: 6: 1 Graduate, 2 Seniors, 2 Juniors, 1 Sophomore.
Source: Harvard University, Report of the President of Harvard College and Reports of Departments for 1949-50, p. 72.
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1949-50
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
APPLIED ECONOMICS – ECONOMICS 110
[Final Examinations]
(Three Hours)
Do all of the following five questions:
- Describe what you consider to be the essential characteristics of the experimental method. In what respects do you consider the problem of making inferences from non-experimental data different from that of drawing inferences from experimental data?
- Describe one or two of the empirical studies dealing with the demand for imports or exports. Indicate in detail why the price elasticities arrived at in the empirical demand for import studies are subject to considerable error and may very well be substantial underestimates.
- What do you consider to be the role of theory in economics? Be as specific as possible.
- What are null hypotheses and what role do they play in testing hypotheses? Describe the nature of the null hypothesis generally used in testing the significance of correlations between series of data. Why is the usual test inappropriate when dealing with correlations between economic time series? What are some of the more appropriate methods for testing the significance of correlations between economic time series?
- Comment on either An Introduction to Econometrics by Jacob Marschak, or on one of the books dealing with methodology in economics.
Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003. Box 27. Papers Printed for Final Examinations [in] History, History of Religions, … , Economics, … , Military Science, Naval Science, June 1950.
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Empirical Economics (fall term) 1950-51
Course Announcement
Economics 110a. Empirical Economics: National Income and Business Fluctuations
Half-course (fall term). Tu., Th., and (at the pleasure of the instructor) Sat., at 12. Assistant Professor Orcutt.
This course will deal with the empirical foundations of economic theory in the fields of national income and business fluctuations. The methods by which various types of prediction are attempted will be given considerable attention.
[Economics 110b. Empirical Economics: The Price Mechanism]
Half-course (fall term). Tu., Th., and (at the pleasure of the instructor) Sat., at 12. Assistant Professor Orcutt.
Omitted in 1950-51; to be given in 1951-52. [NOTE. ALSO OMITTED IN 1951-52]
This course will deal with the empirical foundations of economic theory concerning the functioning of the price mechanism. The agricultural and foreign trade sections will receive particular attention. Properly qualified undergraduates will be admitted to Economics 210b.
Source: Harvard University, Courses of Instruction Offered by the Faculty of Arts and Sciences, 1950-51. Official Register of Harvard University, Vol. XLVII, No. 23 (September, 1950), p. 80.
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1950-51
HARVARD UNIVERSITY ECONOMICS 110a
[Final Examination, Mid-Year]
- Write for about 30 to 45 minutes on business cycle theory. In your discussion be sure to include a thorough treatment of both the acceleration principle (or principle of derived demand) and the multiplier analysis. Be as explicit as possible about their ranges of possible or suggested applications and about their limitations.
- Write for about 30 to 45 minutes on the problem of testing the significance of correlation coefficients. In the course of your discussion bring out the meaning of the correlation coefficient, the nature of tests of significance, the basis of the standard test of significance, reasons why the standard test is frequently not appropriate for testing the significance of correlations between economic time series, and some of the ways of attempting to deal with the problem of testing the significance of correlations between economic time series.
- Write for about 45 to 60 minutes on the problems involved in the statistical determination of the consumption function. Include in your discussion the difficulties arising from additional relationships, errors of observations, and auto-correlated error terms. Also discuss some of the difficulties involved in using cross-section data in testing for the effect of assets on consumption.
- Spend about 30 minutes in making out a list of problems that you think should be worked on in business cycles research.
- Indicate what you think is meant by the following terms or phrases:
(a) structural relations
(b) Exogenous variables
(c) endogenous variables
(d) X is a cause of Y
Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University Final Examinations, 1853-2001. Box 17, Bound volume: Final Exams—Social Sciences, Jan. 1951. Papers Printed for Final Examinations [in] History, History of Religions, … , Economics, … ,Military Science, Naval Science. January, 1951.
Image Source: Orcutt’s senior year picture from the University of Michigan yearbook, Michiganensian, 1939.