John S. Chipman was born in Montreal, Canada, in 1926. He received his Ph.D. from the Johns Hopkins University in 1951, and taught at the University of Minnesota from 1955 to his retirement as Regents’ Professor in 2007. Before going to Minnesota, Chipman was assistant professor of economics at Harvard from 1951-55.
John Chipman’s graduate course in econometrics (Note: apparently the first time “econometrics” had ever been listed as the course name at Harvard) followed his graduate course on “General Interdependence Systems” that was taught in the spring term 1952 (a.k.a. “Mathematical Economics” according to the enrollment data for that year).
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Course Enrollment
[Economics] 215 Econometrics. Assistant Professor Chipman. Half course.
(Fall) Total 6: 5 Graduates, 1 Other.
Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College 1953-1954, p. 100.
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Course Syllabus
Economics 215
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
Department of Economics
Fall Term, 1953-54
Text: Klein, A Textbook of Econometrics; Supplementary text: Hood and Koopmans, Studies in Econometric Method.
(N.B. Numbers in brackets refer to References following the Outline).
OUTLINE
1. SPECIFICATION
The construction of models, choice of variables; collinearity; concepts of structure and reduced form; aims and purposes of econometrics.
Jacob Marschak, “Economic Measurements for Policy and Prediction,” [3, Ch. I].
Haavelmo [2].
Stone [8].
Tinbergen [10, 9].
Marschak, “Statistical Inference in Economics: An Introduction,“ [6, Ch. I].
Tintner [12, Ch. I].
Arthur F. Burns and Jacob Marschak, “Mitchell on What Happens During Business Cycles,” [7, pp. 3-33].
Tinbergen and Koopmans, “Reformulation of Current Business Cycle Theories as Refutable Hypotheses,” [7, pp. 131-145].
Frisch [1].
Koopmans [5].
Tinbergen [11].
Koopmans, “Measurement Without Theory,” Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 29, 1947.
Koopmans and Vining, “Methodological Issues in Quantitative Economics”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 31, 1949.
G.H. Orcutt and Others, “Toward Partial Redirection of Econometrics,” Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1952.
G.H. Orcutt, “Actions, Consequences, and Causal Relations,” Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1952.
Klein [4, Ch. I].
2. IDENTIFICATION
The problem of determining parameters of a system of structural equations given the parameters of the reduced form equations.
Koopmans, “Identification Problems in Economic Model Construction” [3, Ch. II].
Klein, [4, Ch. III, Sec. 3].
Simon, “Causal Ordering and Identifiability” Klein, [3, Ch. III].
Koopmans and Reiersøl, “The Identification of Structural Characteristics,” [C.C.P. no. 39]
Koopmans, Rubin, and Leipnik, “Measuring the Equation Systems of Dynamic Economics,” [6, Ch. II, Sec. 3].
Hurwicz, “Generalization of the Concept of Identification” [6, Ch. IV].
3. ESTIMATION
Point estimation of reduced-form parameters and structural parameters; statistical independence of observations in time series and cross-section data; assumptions of normality in joint distribution of disturbances; principles of estimation; maximum likelihood, limited information, least squares.
Klein [4, Ch. III].
Koopmans and Hood, “The Estimation of Simultaneous Linear Economic Relationships,” [3, Ch. VI].
Koopmans, Rubin, and Leipnik, “Measuring the Equation Systems of Dynamic Economics,” [6, Ch. II, Sec. 3].
Haavelmo, “Methods of Measuring the Marginal Propensity to Consume,” [3, Ch. IV].
Girshick and Haavelmo, “Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Food,” [3, Ch. V].
Anderson and Rubin [C.C.P., No. 36].
D. Cochrane and G.H. Orcutt, “Application of Least Squares Regression to Relationships Containing Auto-Correlated Error Terms,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 1949.
G.H. Orcutt and D. Cochrane, “A Sampling Study of the Merits of Autoregressive and Reduced Form Transformations in Regression Analysis,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, September 1949.
Anderson and Anderson [C.C.P. No. 42].
Klein [4, Ch. V].
F.N. David and J. Neyman, “Extension of the Markoff Theorem on Least Squares,” Statistical Research Memoirs, Volume II, December 1938.
T.W. Anderson, “Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation by the Limited-Information Maximum-Likelihood Method” [6, Ch. IX].
Chernoff and Rubin, Asymptotic Properties of Limited-Information Estimates Under Generalized Conditions,” [3, Ch. VII].
Jean Bronfenbrenner, “Sources and Size of Least-Squares Bias in a Two-Equation Model,” [3, Ch. IX].
4. VERIFICATION
Interval estimation and testing of hypotheses.
Klein [4, Ch. 3, Sec. 6].
Haavelmo [2, Ch. IV].
Carl Christ, “A Test of an Econometric Model for the United States, 1921-1947,” [7, pp. 35-129].
Anderson [C.C.P. No. 50].
Tinbergen [10].
5. PREDICTION
Conditional and unconditional prediction; relationship between prediction and policy.
Klein [4, Ch. VI].
Haavelmo [2, Ch. VI].
Hurwicz, “Prediction and Least Squares,” [6, Ch. VI].
Tinbergen [11].
REFERENCES
1. PRINCIPLES
Books and Monographs:
[1] Frisch, Ragnar: Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems, Oslo, Universitets Økonomiske Institut, 1934.
[2] Haavelmo, Trygve: “The Probability Approach in Econometrics,” Econometrica, Vol. 12 (Supplement), July 1944.
*[3] Hood, Wm.C., and Koopmans, T.C., (ed.): Studies in Econometric Method, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 14, New York, Wiley, 1953.
*[4] Klein, L.R.: A Textbook of Econometrics, Evanston, Illinois, Row, Peterson and Co., 1953.
[5] Koopmans, T.C.: Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series, Haarlem, De Erven F. Bohn N.V., 1937.
[6] Koopmans, T.C. (ed.): Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 10, New York, Wiley, 1950.
[7] National Bureau of Economic Research: Conference on Business Cycles, New York, 1951.
[8] Stone, Richard: The Role of Measurement in Economics, Cambridge University Press, 1951.
[9] Tinbergen, Jan: Econometrics, Philadelphia, Blakiston, 1951.
[10] Tinbergen, Jan: Statistical Testing of Business Cycle Theories, Geneva, League of Nations, 1939.
[11] Tinbergen, Jan: On the Theory of Economic Policy, Amsterdam, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1952.
[12] Tintner, Gerhard: Econometrics, New York, Wiley, 1952.
Cowles Commission Papers (New Series):
No. 36. T.W. Anderson and Herman Rubin, Two Papers on the Estimation of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic Equations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Volume 20, 1949 and Volume 21, 1950.
No. 39. Olav Reiersøl and Tjalling C. Koopmans, Three Papers on Identification Problems, Psychometrica, Volume 15, 1950; Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 21, 1950; and Econometrica, Vol. 18, 1950.
No. 42. R.L. Anderson and T.W. Anderson, “Distribution of the Circular Serial Correlation Coefficient for Residuals from a Fitted Fourier Series,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Volume 21, 1950.
No. 50. T.W. Anderson, “Estimating Linear Restrictions on Regression Coefficients for Multivariate Normal Distributions,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Volume 22, 1951.
2. APPLICATIONS
Klein, L.R.: Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941, Cowles Commission Monograph No. 11, New York, Wiley, 1950.
Schultz, Henry: The Theory and Measurement of Demand, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1938.
Wold, Herman: Demand Analysis; A Study in Econometrics, New York, Wiley, 1953.
3. SUGGESTED STATISTICAL REFERENCES
Mood, A.M., Introduction to the Theory of Statistics, New York, McGraw Hill, 1950.
Kendall, M.G.: The Advanced Theory of Statistics, 2 vols., London, Charles Griffin and Co., 1943, 1946.
Wilks, S.S.: Mathematical Statistics, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1947.
Source: Harvard University Archives, Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003, Box 6, Folder “Economics 1953-1954, (2 of 2)”.
Image Source: September 1961 entry card for John Somerset Chipman (b. 28 June 1926 in Montreal). Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, immigration Cards, 1900-1965 at ancestry.com.