This post provides enrollment data, course outline, reading assignments and final examination questions for Alvin H. Hansen‘s undergraduate economics course on business cycles for the first semester of the Harvard 1948-49 academic year.
The 1950-51 course outline only differs with respect to a few items. Beginning 1951-52 the material for this course was swept into the second semester of Economics 141. Money, Banking and Economic Fluctuations offered jointly by Alvin Hansen and John H. Williams.
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Course Enrollment
[Economics] 145a (formerly Economics 45a). Business Cycles (F). Professor Hansen.
Total: 83 of which 48 Seniors, 30 Juniors, 2 Sophomores, 1 Freshman, 1 Radcliffe, 1 Other.
Source: Harvard University. Report of the President of Harvard College, 1948-49, p. 77.
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Economics 145a
Business Cycles 1948-49 Professor Hansen
Part I. Descriptive Survey
Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, Ch. 1,9.
Hansen, Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles, Ch. I, II.
Schumpeter, “The Analysis of Economic Change,” in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Ch. I.
Federal Reserve Chart Book (available at the Coop.)
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Suggested Reading:
Mitchell, “Business Cycles,” in Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, Vol. 3, pp. 92-106.
Kondratieff, “The Long Waves in Economic Life,” in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Ch. 3.
Frickey, Economic Fluctuations in the United States.
Burns and Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles.
Beveridge, Full Employment in a Free Society, Part II, Sec. 1 and Appendix A.
Schumpeter, Business Cycles, pp. 161-174; 212-219.
Dewey and Dakin, Cycles, Ch. 1-9.
Part II. The Meaning and Genesis of National Product
Hansen, Economic Policy and Full Employment, Ch. 3, 4.
Gilbert and Jaszi, “National Product and Income as an Aid in Economic Problems,” in Readings in the Theory of Income and Distribution, Ch. 2.
Machlup, “Period Analysis and Multiplier Theory,” in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Ch. 10, only pp. 210-234.
Morgan, Income and Employment, Ch. I.
Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, Ch. 8, Section 4, pp. 222-232; Ch. 13, Section 1, pp. 455-461.
Hansen, Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles, Ch. XI, XII, XIII, XIV.
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Suggested Reading:
National Income, Supplement to Survey of Current Business, July, 1947.
Kuznets, (a) The National Income and its Composition, Ch. 1; (b) National Income, A Summary of Findings.
M. Hoffenberg, “Estimates of National Output, Distributed Income, Consumer Spending, Saving, and Capital Formation,” Review of Economic Statistics, May, 1943.
Polanyi, Full Employment and Free Trade, Ch. I.
Kaldor, “The Quantitative Aspects of the Full Employment Problem in Britain,” Appendix C in Beveridge, Full Employment in a Free Society.
Smithies, “Forecasting Post-War Demand,” Econometrica, January, 1945.
National Planning Association, National Budgets for Full Employment.
Part III. Theory of Cycles and Investment
Haberler, Prosperity and Depression, Ch. 10, 11, and 3; Ch. 13, Section 3, pp. 473-479.
Hansen, (a) Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles, Ch. XVI and XVII; (b) Economic Policy and Full Employment, Ch. 14-16.
Keynes, General Theory, ch. 22.
Lerner, Economics of Control, Ch. 21, 22.
Harris, The New Economics, Ch. 33.
Schumpeter, Business Cycles, Ch. IV, Sections A, B, and C, pp. 130-161; Ch. VII, Section C., pp. 325-351.
Morgan, Income and Employment, Ch. 7-9.
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Suggested Reading:
Klein, The Keynesian Revolution, Macmillan, 1947. Ch. 1-4.
Long, Building Cycles and the Theory of Investment, Ch. I, II, VII, VIII, XII.
Haberler, Remainder of Prosperity and Depression, especially Chapter VIII.
Harris, The New Economics, Ch. 8-15; 18-19; 39-40.
Schumpeter, Further reading in Business Cycles, especially Chapters 6 and 7.
Tinbergen, Robertson, Hayek, Hawtrey in Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Ch. 4, 15, 16, 17.
Clark, Strategic Factors in Business Cycles.
Wilson, The Fluctuations in Income and EmploymentCh. 1-10.
Estey, Business Cycles, Ch. 1-16.
Hansen (a) Business Cycle Theory, Ch. 4, 8; (b) Full Recovery or Stagnation, Ch. 3 (Hayek); and Appendix Keynes’ Treatise, pp. 331-343.
Metzler, (a) “The Nature and Stability of Inventory Cycles,” in Review of Economic Statistics, August, 1941; (b) “Business Cycle Theory and the Theory of Employment,” in Am. Econ. Review, June, 1946.
Samuelson, Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Ch. 12.
Samuelson, Chapter II in Harris’ Postwar Economic Problems: Income, Employment and Public Policy (Essays in Honor of Alvin H. Hansen), W.W. Norton, 1948.
E. V. Morgan, Conquest of Unemployment, Samson-Low Co. London, 1948.
Part IV. Policy
Bd. of Gov. of Fed. Res. System, Postwar Studies No. 3, Comar, Public Debt and National Income, pp. 53-68.
Harris, The New Economics, Ch. 16-17; 34-35.
Hansen, (a) Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles, Ch. 9. (b) Economic Policy and Full Employment, Ch. 5-13; 22.
C. E. D., Research Staff, Jobs and Markets, Ch. 8.
Beveridge, Full Employment in a Free Society, Parts IV and V.
C. E. D., Taxes and the Budget, 1947.
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Suggested Reading:
Hicks, Ch. 24, in Readings in Income Distribution (Keynes and the Classics; also in Econometrica, Vol. 5, 1937).
Pigou, Lapses from Full Employment.
Kaldor, “Stability and Full Employment,” in the Economic Journal, Dec.1938.
Bd. of Gov. of Fed. Res. System, Postwar Studies, No. 3, Musgrave, “Federal Tax Reform,” pp. 22-52.
Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Ch. XV, XVI, XVII.
Harold Smith, Testimony in Hearings of Senate Committee Banking and Currency on Full Employment Act of 1945, S. 380, pp. 676-696.
Twentieth Century Fund, American Housing, Ch. 12, pp. 311-341.
Financing American Prosperity, Ch. 3, 5, 6, 7 (Clark, Hansen, Slichter and Williams).
READING PERIOD ASSIGNMENT
Read one of the following four assignments:
- Morgan, Income and Employment, Ch. 10-18.
- Kaldor, Appendix C. (pp. 344-400) in Beveridge, Full Emploment in a Free Society.
- Polanyi, Free Trade and Full Employment, Ch. 3, 4, 6, 7; and H. Williams, “Free Enterprise and Full Employment,” Chapter 7 in Financing American Prosperity.
- Terborgh, George, The Bogey of Economic Maturity (entire book, disregarding appendices) and A. H. Hansen’s review of Terborgh’s book in Appendix B in Economic Policy and Full EmploymentandWright’s review in Review of Economic Statistics, February, 1946, pp. 13-22.
Source: Harvard University Archives. Syllabi, course outlines and reading lists in Economics, 1895-2003 (HUC 8522.2.1), Box 4. Folder: “Economics, 1949-1950 [sic] (2 of 3)”.
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1948-49
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
ECONOMICS 145a
[Final examination, January 1949]
Part I
(Answer any THREE questions)
- Certain theorists believe there is not one “business cycle,” but rather several of different duration and nature. Outline and discuss four types of cycle with particular reference to their interrelationships, if any.
- Discuss the factors that bring about a termination of the boom (the upper turning point). Introduce the views of different cycle theorists and critically examine their explanations.
- Gross National Product statistics provide an important tool in analyzing the cyclical nature of economic activity. Present the main components on (a) the expenditure side (b) the income (distributive shares) side of Gross National Product.
Analyze the factors chiefly responsible for determining the level of: (a) investment, (b) consumption, (c) saving, in any period. - (a) Using the Keynesian “instantaneous” analysis and assuming hypothetical values for the consumption function and the level of income, show how an increase of $10 billion in investment would affect income and consumption. Illustrate your answer graphically.
(b) Show how the above analysis would be changed if the Robertsonian time period approach were used. What is the essential difference between the two forms of analysis, especially with regard to the multiplier. - (a) Discuss the relative merits of fiscal and monetary policies as means of reducing business cycle fluctuations.
(b) Discuss the proposals for stability and full employment contained in two CED publications: (1) Jobs and Marketsand (2) Taxes and the Budget.
Part II (Required of everyone)
Summarize the salient points in any oneof the following, and critically evaluate the conclusions reached by the author:
(a) Morgan: Income and Employment
(b) Kaldor: (Appendix C) in Beveridge, Full Employment in a Free Society.
(c) Polanyi: Free Trade and Full Employmentand Williams in Financing American Prosperity.
(d) Terborgh: The Bogey of Economic Maturity.
Source: Harvard University Archives. Harvard University. Final Examinations, 1853-2001 (HUC 7000.28, Box 16 of 284). Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Papers Printed for Final Examinations: History, History of Religions, … , Economics, … , Military Science, Naval Science, February, 1949.
Image Source: Harvard Album 1952.