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Harvard. The Data Resources Inc. connection. Galbraith asks Eckstein, Feldstein, Jorgenson. 1972

 

“As Ed Mason tactfully hints, I’ve had enough lost causes for one year.”–Galbraith

In the following exchange of letters initiated by John Kenneth Galbraith in December 1972 we find multiple instances of seething rage barely concealed under veneers of formal academic politeness. Critical hiring and firing decisions regarding the subtraction of radical voices from the economics department faculty went overwhelmingly for the consolidation of mainstream economics earlier that month and Galbraith appears to have sought a vulnerability of this counterrevolution in its potential for conflicts of interest as he imagined coming from Otto Eckstein’s start-up, Data Resources, Inc. Eckstein’s response provides us with some interesting backstory to DRI. Feldstein and Jorgenson offered their witness testimony regarding this early episode in what would ultimately result in the so-called empirical turn in economics

But even after suffering this tactical defeat, Galbraith’s strategic point was to be confirmed by history:

“I do have one final thought. In accordance with the well-known tendencies of free enterprise at this level, one day one of these corporations is going to go down with a ghastly smash. It will then be found, in its days of desperation or before, to have engaged in some very greasy legal operations. The Department and the University will be held by the papers to have a contingent liability. It will be hard to preserve reticence then. It would have been better to have taken preventative action now.”

The conflict of interest cases brought by the U.S. Department of Justice in 2000 against economics professor Andrei Shleifer and the Harvard Institute for International Development resulted in a settlement that required Harvard to pay $26.5 million to the U.S. government.

_____________________________

On behalf of the Department,
Galbraith wants to know more about DRI

JOHN KENNETH GALBRAITH
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
CAMBRIDGE. MASSACHUSETTS

December 20, 1972

Professor Otto Eckstein
Littauer Center

Professor Martin S. Feldstein
1737 Cambridge Street

Professor Dale W. Jorgenson
1737 Cambridge Street

Dear Otto, Marty and Dale:

It will hardly be news that I have been deeply concerned over the several recent actions of the Department of Economics on appointments as well as the academically less consequential problem of the less than gracious response to those of us who have expressed alarm.

There is an impression, of which you will undoubtedly be sensitive, that the positions of some of those favoring the recent action could reflect, however subjectively and innocently, their corporate involvement in conflict with their academic responsibilities. I do not wish in any way to prejudge this matter or even to be a source of embarrassment. The problem does seem to me sufficiently somber so that in the interest of everyone you no less than the rest of us the circumstances should be clearly known. In this spirit I raise the following questions:

  1. Could you indicate the nature of Data Resources, Inc? I have reference to assets, sales, employees, services rendered, identity of corporate clients and charges.
  2. I believe it can fairly be assumed from general knowledge that the Corporation owes part of its prestige and esteem to association with members of the Harvard Department of Economics. The foregoing being so and reputation being a common property of the Department and Harvard University, could I ask as to your ownership or other interest or other participation of whatever sort and return?
  3. Has the Corporation employed students and nontenured members of the Department of Economics and would you indicate the names?
  4. Could I ask if you have participated in the past in the consideration of Harvard promotion of any such employees, consultants or people otherwise associated with the Corporation and in what cases?
  5. Could past service or inferior service or present or potential utility to the Corporation or extraneous judgment based on business as distinct from academic performance create, again perhaps subjectively, the possibility of a conflict of interest in your passing on Harvard promotions? How have you handled this conflict in the cases in which people with an association, past or present, with the Corporation have been up for Harvard promotion, always assuming that there have been such cases?
  6. In the recruiting of clients for the Corporation, what of the danger that they will be affected by the close relation between the Corporation and the Department? Specifically could there be effort, however subjective, to quell their fears? The radical economists come obviously to mind. But, as you are perhaps aware, even I am not a totally reassuring figure to many businessmen department with too many people of my viewpoint might also evoke alarm. Does safety here suggest that one with major corporate interest disqualify himself on all appointments?
  7. Is there a possibility — I by no means press the point that the kind of economics that serves corporate interest will take on an exaggerated importance when some of our ablest faculty members, and students are working on such problems?

Let me repeat that I ask these questions only for a clarification in which we share a common interest. I do not of course raise the more general question of outside activity. This would come with very poor grace from me — it is indeed the reason why I have sought not to be a charge on university resources,

Yours faithfully,

John Kenneth Galbraith

CC: Professor James S. Duesenberry

Dean John T. Dunlop

JKG:mih

_____________________________

Eckstein provides his answers to Galbraith’s “interesting questions”

Otto Eckstein
24 Barberry Road
Lexington, Mass. 02173
January 8, 1973

Professor J. Kenneth Galbraith
Department of Economics
Harvard University
207 Littauer Center
Cambridge, Mass. 02138

Dear Ken:

Pursuing the habits of a lifetime, you raise interesting questions in your letter of December 20th. Let me answer them by giving you an account of the origins and development of Data Resources, Inc., and of its relations to Harvard. I believe this will respond to all of your questions.

(1) Origins of DRI

As you know, my professional career has largely been devoted to the application of the techniques of economics to actual problems of the U.S. economy. After my most recent period of full -time government service in 1966, my views on the economy were sought by business and financial organizations. I quickly discovered that they made little use of macro economics or econometrics. The gap between macro and micro was unbridged. They typically ignored the overall situation. Econometrics, which always looked to me to be a very practical way to establish quantitative relationships, received little use and remained an academic plaything. I had already discovered in the government that even macro-decisions were made on the basis of very crude quantitative work, without the benefit of the thirty years of methodological development of econometrics.

In mid-1967, I had the idea that the technology of the time-sharing computer provided the missing link that would make it possible to use the modern techniques to improve private and public planning on a day-to-day basis. The time-sharing technology had the potential of overcoming the mechanical hurdles of programming, data punching, batch runs, etc. which had made econometrics a slow process open only to economists of exceptional mechanical aptitude. The time-sharing technology had the potential of bringing high quality data bases to researchers of providing them with the programs that would allow them to develop individual equations and to combine these equations into simulation models, and to evaluate their “satellite” models for historical analysis, contingency analysis and micro-forecasting. Such satellite models might encompass revenues and costs of their own industries or products, the detailed composition of unemployment, regional incomes, and the tax collections of governments.

These satellite models are constructed by users, at their own remote locations, combining their own data with the national data banks on the central computers. The programs allow the construction of the models and their on-line linkage to the centrally managed national models. Once the models are built, the particular company or government can quantitatively assess its own demand, costs, production, etc., assuming a particular macro-situation. It can see its own revenue and cost outlook assuming the central forecast, or alternatively what would happen if the economy should do better or worse. The micro-implications of changes in fiscal or monetary policy are also made apparent.

Besides making the tools that are our main stock-in-trade widely useable in the actual economy, the existence of such a system could accomplish these goals:

(1) There would be a rationally decentralized structure of information flows. The national data banks would be large and accessible, but local private information would remain where it belonged — in the confidential hands of the local analysts best equipped to use it.

(2) Analysis itself would be rationally decentralized. National forecasting could be done centrally with the use of lots of resources and with the benefit of an enormous data base and model collection. Micro forecasting would be done by the user organization itself.

(3) Micro-analysis would consider macro-environments as quantitative inputs. If the macro-forecasts are better than the crude assumptions previously made, the errors in micro-decisions should be reduced.

(4) As a result, the stability of the economy should be enhanced. There should be fewer and smaller mistakes in private and public economic decisions. Some of the benefits of indicative planning are realized without the political risks.

Once the basic ideas were clear, how was it to be done? The obvious possibilities were (1) a foundation financed project at Harvard; (2) persuade the government to undertake this work; (3) go to a large company  such as a computer manufacturer or bank; or (4) organize a new, small private enterprise. After some reflection, I decided that the new, small private enterprise form was the only suitable one. A Harvard project was ruled out immediately because of the poor experience with the Harvard Economic Barometers of the late 1920’s, an episode with which I was familiar from reading the archives of The Review of Economics and Statistics. Also, the system would require considerable operating staff for the computers, data banking, service and marketing. A university is not a good employer for such a staff nor a good working environment for these functions. I knew from my government experience that such a project was beyond the capacities of public agencies, at least in the United States, and budget stringency would have made federal funding unlikely, The large company would have posed difficult personal and political questions. Further, I felt that if the scheme were successful — and I had a good deal of faith in it — it could grow and reach its full potential by generating its own revenues. Finally, the idea of ultimately supporting my family from my main activities rather than “moonlighting” was attractive.

In 1968, Mitchell, Hutchins and Company, an investment firm with whom I was consulting, found the venture capital, an amount in seven figures. Donald Marron, its President, and I then co-founded DRI. The largest fraction of the capital was provided by First Security Corporation, an asset management group under the leadership of Mr. Robert Denison, a summa graduate of Harvard College and the Business School. The Board of Directors of the company are Mr. Marron, Mr. Denison, myself, and Mr. Stanton Armour, the Chairman of the Operating Committee of Mitchell, Hutchins.

The project required managers, econometricians, programmers, and computer experts. Mitchell, Hutchins managed the organization of the company, provided the initial business background and management, recruited personnel, etc. Dr. Charles Warden, previously special assistant to several chairmen of the CEA joined the company and took on many of its managerial burdens. Later on the company was organized into three divisions, each headed by a Vice-President.

Given the complexity and ambition of the scheme, I recognized that I needed the collaboration of the very best econometricians in terms of ideas, review and quality control. Mr. Marron and I, therefore, put together a founding consulting group, consisting of Jorgenson, Nerlove, Fromm, Feldstein, Hall and Thurow. This group made major contributions in the design stage. Today, the academic consultants mainly direct policy studies that DRI has been asked to undertake by government agencies and foundations. At all stages, the largest part of the work of developing and operating the DRI system and forecast was done by full-time professional employees of the company.

To help assure the widest application of the new techniques and to be able to offer alternative model forecasts, DRI entered into an agreement with the Wharton model group directed by Lawrence Klein. We continue to collaborate with them, and the Wharton model and its forecasts are maintained on the DRI computers. Subsequently, we have entered into arrangements with the model building group at the University of Toronto and with Nikkei, the sponsors of the Japan Economic Research Center.

As for the distribution of ownership, about half of the equity is in the hands of the institutions who provided the capital. Professional employees have ownership or options on another substantial fraction of shares, and my children and I own about a fifth of the shares. The academic consulting group has about 5% of the shares, received at the time of the founding of the company. All of the stock is restricted; it is not registered with the SEC and hence not saleable. The academic consultants are paid on a per diem basis as they actually spend time. In order to give the company a better start, I did not take any pay in the first three years; last year I began to receive a modest compensation.

(2) The Status of DRI Today

On the whole, my hopes and aspirations for DRI have been realized The economic data bases are the most comprehensive in existence and their accuracy is unquestioned. The econometric models have advanced that art in certain respects. The forecasts have been good and are now followed and reported quite widely. The people — management, research economists, service consultants, data processing and programming experts, and marketing — are capable and the organization is strong. While it inevitably takes time for new concepts and techniques to gain acceptance and be widely adopted, more than half of the fifty largest industrial companies and a large fraction of the financial institutions utilize the DRI system. Every major government agency involved in macro economic policy as well as every major data producing government agency is a user of the DRI system. The research environment created by the DRI data banks, software, models and computers has proved so attractive that even organizations with considerable internal facilities find it useful to have access. DRI as an organization has no political views, though individuals associated with the company can take any position they wish.

Our system has also been used by ten universities and colleges and we have just begun to develop special services for the state governments. As DRI is becoming better known and our communications network to our computers spreads to cover a far greater number of communities, we expect that more colleges and universities will find it possible to take advantage of these research facilities.

The company reached the break-even point in the twentieth month of operation after expending the larger part of the venture capital to create the initial version of the DRI system. It is now moderately profitable and earnings are advancing rapidly. Thus far, the capitalists have earned no return of dividends or interest. They have been extraordinarily forbearing in not pressing for quick returns, preferring to let the company use all of the resources in these early years to bring the DRI concept to full fruition. The probabilities are good that the investors will be handsomely rewarded over the next few years. Having taken the risk and waited, they will have earned their return.

(3) The Relation of DRI to Harvard University

Recognizing the sensitivity of this issue from the beginning, I have made sure that Data Resources produced a flow of benefits to Harvard and that Harvard would not provide resources to DRI. The Board of Directors, heavy with Harvard alumni, formally instructed me early in our development to provide free use of the DRI system to Harvard students. Quite a few have done so, including students on my small NSF project on prices and wages. This Fall, for the first time, I have a graduate working seminar in econometric model building. Each of the seven students enrolled is building his own model, simulating it, and writing a paper. The projects include the first econometric model of Ghana, a small scale two-country model of Canada and the United States, an exercise in policy optimization using the DRI model, a study to use macro models to estimate the changing distribution of income, a study of tax incidence using translog production functions, and a model of Venezuela. If this experimental seminar is successful, a lot more can be done, of course.

In terms of relations with professors, Feldstein and Jorgenson were members of the original academic consulting group, along with professors at MIT, Chicago, Brookings and Wharton. I direct and take responsibility for the DRI forecasts, working with full -time employees. The others have focussed on policy studies, including three major studies for the Joint Economic Committee which received considerable attention. They have also done studies for the U.S. Treasury, the Ford Foundation, etc. These studies have not been a significant source of profit to the company, but they surely help to build Data Resources as an authoritative source of economic analysis and serve the public interest.

DRI has had very limited relations with the non-tenured faculty in the Harvard Economics Department. We cooperated with the Department in January 1969 to make it possible for Barry Bosworth to assume his appointment a semester early when he wished to leave the Council of Economic Advisers. He did some useful research that spring and summer, most of which reached fruition in his subsequent papers at The Brookings Institution. His half-time support was transferred to a project at Harvard after one semester. Mel Fuss collaborated in the early stages of our analysis of automobile demand sponsored by General Motors. Bill Raduchel has done some consulting in the programming area with us, but this was always was a very minor part of his activities. While it would be improper to recount the precise role of myself or Feldstein and Jorgenson in the promotion considerations of these three men, it is perfectly obvious and easily documented that there is no substantive historical issue of DRI considerations entering into Harvard appointments. Bosworth went to Brookings before his appointment came up; Fuss and Raduchel were not promoted.

Perhaps this is the point to digress on my philosophy on Harvard promotions. I believe that assistant professors should be selected on the basis of professional promise, their potential contribution to the undergraduate teaching program and whatever publication record they already possess. Promotion to associate professor should mainly be based on research accomplishments as well as teaching performance, with both prerequisites. I have always strongly felt that collaboration in the research projects of senior professors should be given no weight in non-tenured appointments because of the considerable risk that the Harvard appointment thereby becomes a recruiting device for the personnel of these projects. In my years at Harvard, I have never asked the Department to appoint anyone whose presence would be useful to me, and I never will make such a request. To the best of my knowledge, Feldstein and Jorgenson have pursued the same policy. I recommend adoption of procedures that would assure that all of us avoid such appointments.

There are more intangible relations between DRI and Harvard which are hard to assess and easy to exaggerate. If I did not possess a professional reputation which has been enhanced by my professorship here my career would have been different, and I might not have received my extraordinary opportunities of public service. As far as the development of DRI is concerned, my greatest institutional indebtedness is to the Council of Economic Advisers. It was this experience which made me appreciate the importance of accurate and quick information and of the tremendous potential of using econometrics to bridge the gap between macro- and micro-economics. As far as the relations with our private and public clients are concerned, a sophisticated group containing numerous Harvard graduates, they understand perfectly well the tremendous diversity of people and ideas present at Harvard. They know that Harvard has no institutional position on political questions or on the merits or demerits of the existing social, political or economic system. It is also clear to them that Data Resources is a totally distinct entity. I am not responsible for your views and you will not be tainted by mine.

Your final question, whether “the kind of economics that serves corporate interest will take on an exaggerated importance when some of our ablest faculty members and students are working on such problems” is a deep philosophical one which I can only attempt to answer in this way. The Harvard Economics Department has always contained individuals with widely varying concepts of their role in life and preferences in their professional activities. Compared to its historical position, the Department at this time is exceptionally heavy in abstract theory and methodology, and in social philosophy and criticism of the existing order. I represent a different point of view that has always been common in our department. It is my aim to apply economics to the country’s problems in the belief that the existing system can be made to meet the needs of the good society. The development of Data Resources is my current personal expression of this philosophy.

Sincerely yours
[signed] Otto
Otto Eckstein

OE/gc

_____________________________

Feldstein reports being a satisfied user of DRI services

HARVARD UNIVERSITY

MARTIN S. FELDSTEIN
Professor of Economics

1737 CAMBRIDGE STREET, 617
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02128

January 9, 1973

Professor J. K. Galbraith
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Littauer 207

Dear Ken:

Although I was surprised by your letter, I am happy to describe my relations with Data Resources. I have been an “economic consultant” to DRI since it was organized. I would describe both the amount of work that I have done and my financial interest as very limited. Last year, my only DRI work was a study of the problem of unemployment that I did for the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. The Committee contracted with DRI for the study. DRI provided the use of the DRI model and data bank and the special computing facilities. Professor Robert Hall of MIT, another DRI consultant, worked on the study for a few days. The study, Lowering the Permanent Rate of Unemployment, was used as the background for hearings in October and will be published by the Committee this year. I am enclosing a copy for your interest. I might also note that although the work on this for DRI is now complete, I am planning to continue on my own to do research on some of the problems that I examined in this study. A graduate student who helped me during the summer became so interested in some of the questions of labor force participation that he is considering doing his thesis on that subject.

Before last year I worked on developing the financial sector of the Data Resources model. The basic work here was building a bridge between the usual Keynesian analysis and the Fisherian theory with its emphasis on the expected rate of inflation. My work here started as direct collaboration with Otto Eckstein; we published a joint paper, “The Fundamental Determinants of the Interest Rate,” in the 1970 Review of Economics and Statistics. This research led me to consider the importance of expected inflation in all studies of the impact of interest rates; I described my work on this in “Inflation, Specification Bias, and the Impact of Interest Rates” (Journal of Political Economy, 1970). Although further work on the financial sector is now done primarily by members of the DRI full-time staff, I did some work in 1971 on extending the analysis of expectations and testing alternative econometric models of expectations. This work is described in a recent paper, “Multimarket Expectations and the Rate of Interest” with Gary Chamberlain, that has been submitted for publication.

I have described my DRI studies in such detail to give you a sense of both the substance and nature of the work. It has been scientific research on substantively and technically interesting questions of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy. I have also found the access to the DRI facilities, particularly the macroeconomic model system and data bank, to be useful in my other research and teaching.

I cannot believe that my association with DRI could create any of the problems that you indicate in your questions 5, 6 and 7. I believe that Otto is writing to you about the specific points that you raised about DRI in your questions 1 through 4. I hope that all of this material reassures you about the relations between DRI and members of our department.

Please call me if you have any further questions,

Sincerely,
[signed] Marty
Martin S. Feldstein

MSF:JT

Enclosure

_____________________________

Galbraith to Feldstein: You did not address my concern about “problems of conflict of interest”

January 19, 1973

Professor Martin S. Feldstein
Room 617
1737 Cambridge Street

Dear Marty:

Many thanks for your detailed — and good-humored — response. I’m grateful also for the JEC Study of which Otto spoke and which I am taking to Europe for my own reading. I have taken the liberty of giving a copy of your letter to Ed Mason who, as you perhaps know, is making a study of this whole problem.

As you can guess, I am untroubled by work done directly or through DRI for the government. I am concerned about the problems of conflict of interest that seem to me to arise when a corporation which owes its esteem to members of our Department markets profit-making services to other corporations. But this is something on which I should like to reserve comment until Ed Mason has come up with his conclusions.

Yours faithfully,

John Kenneth Galbraith

JKG:mjh

_____________________________

Jorgenson: I think you are barking up the wrong tree

HARVARD UNIVERSITY
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

January 22, 1973

DALE W. JORGENSON
Professor of Economics

1737 CAMBRIDGE STREET, ROOM 510
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS 02138
(617) 495-4661

Temporary Address until 6/30/73:
Department of Economics
Stanford University
Stanford, California 94305

Professor John Kenneth Galbraith
Littauer 207
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138

Dear Ken:

Many thanks for your letter of December 20 and your note of December 21. Let me take this occasion to thank you for the copy of your AEA Presidential Address you sent to members of the Department. It was a masterpiece of the genre and will be long remembered by its readers. I am very sorry that I was unable to attend your oral presentation at Toronto.

I share your deep concern over recent actions of the Department of Economics on non-tenure personnel, even though our views on these matters do not always coincide. In view of the strong feelings involved I found the discussion to be remarkably free of personal considerations. I hope that I have not been a party to what you describe as a less than gracious response to vour own views. If I have, I hope that you will accept my apologies.

Since your letter is addressed to Otto Eckstein, Martin Feldstein and myself, I will limit this response to my own role in DRI. I am a stockholder and consultant to DRI and have been for almost four years. In my work for DRI, I have acted as a consultant to several U.S. government agencies and to the Ford Foundation. I have had only one corporate client for my services. My main current activity for DRI is a study of energy policy for the Ford Foundation.

DRI provides a unique environment for certain types of research in applied econometrics. My current work on energy policy would be infeasible without the DRI system. The computer software, computerized data bank, and econometric forecasting system have been indispensable in modeling the energy sector and in studying the effects of economic policies related to energy. The facilities available at DRI have reduced the burden of data processing and computation for econometric model-building by several orders of magnitude.

To my mind the two most important features of the DRI system are its high quality from the scientific point of view and its ability to assimilate the results of research and to make them available for routine application. The data bank is unparalleled in scope and reliability and is constantly expanding as new sources of data are made available. The computer software package is highly sophisticated and is under continuous development as new econometric methods are designed. The forecasting system is the core of DRI’s operations and has undergone a process of improvement and extension that has continued up to the present.

The performance of the DRI system is the main source of attraction for DRI’s clients. This is certainly the case for my study of energy policy. You raise a general question about the concerns of DRI’s clients and the views of members of Harvard’s Department of Economics. In my experience there is no connection, either positive or negative. The clients of DRI are buying the services of DRI. As I have already indicated, this is a rather unusual product, unavailable at any university economics department, including Harvard’s.

On the issue of non-tenured members of the Department of Economics who are also employee-consultants of DRI, I have not employed any non-tenured members of the Department in my work for DRI, as I indicated in our telephone conversation. I find it difficult to envision circumstances in which any conflict of interest related to junior appointments could arise from my DRI association. There have been no such circumstances in the past.

I hope that these observations help to clarify the issues you raise

Yours sincerely,
[signed] Dale
Dale W. Jorgenson

DWJ: cg

cc: E. Mason, J. Dunlop, H. Rosovsky, R. Caves, J. Duesenberry, O. Eckstein, M. Feldstein

_____________________________

Galbraith back to Jorgenson: we need to avoid even the appearance of a  “conflict of interest”

Gstaad. Switzerland
February 13, 1973

Professor Dale W. Jorgenson
Department of Economies
Stanford University
Stanford, California 94305

Dear Dale:

Many thanks for your letter and for your nice comments. I hope life goes well for you at Stanford. I am writing this from Switzerland where I am on the final pages of what I intend shall be my last major effort on economics. When I get tired I propel myself across the snow and think how good the mountains in the winter would be in a world where one did not feel obliged to take exercise.

I must say that my attention after writing was shifted to yet another of our corporations of which, to my annoyance, I was unaware. It functions currently, I gather, as a subsidiary of the antitrust problems of IBM.

I do feel that there are serious problems here. Participation in the management of the Department, especially in the selection and recruitment of personnel, and in the management of a profit-making enterprise are bound to involve if not the reality of conflict of interest then the appearance of conflict. Appointments, it will be held, are influenced by what influences corporate customers or needs. This must be avoided. It is especially clear if the corporation sells such services as antitrust defense. But it is also the case if the corporation becomes large and successful —, as I would judge, DRI is certain and deservedly to be.

The proper course, as I have suggested to Ed Mason and informally to Otto, is not to deny any professor the right to participation in a profit-making enterprise. Rather it is to separate the two management roles. A man should be free to have an active ownership role in a corporation or an active position in Department management. He should not do both. This would obviate problems of conflict or seeming conflict and protect the positions of all concerned. Needless to say, I would have the same rule apply to all.

Yours faithfully,

John Kenneth Galbraith

JKG:mjh

cc: E. Mason, J. Duesenberry, O. Eckstein, M. Feldstein, R. Caves, H. Rosovsky, F. Ford

_____________________________

“Economics Dept. Reports On Faculty’s Outside Ties”
by Fran R. Schumer. Harvard Crimson, March 20, 1973

A committee in the Economics Department reported yesterday that business connections between Economics professors and outside corporations do not interfere with hiring decisions and teaching practices.

James S. Duesenberry, chairman of the three-man committee, said yesterday that business ties do not impose a conservative bias on the Department’s hiring practices and do not limit the faculty’s teaching time.

Complaints

The committee’s investigation was prompted by complaints raised last term by John Kenneth Galbraith, Warburg Professor of Economics.

Galbraith attributed the Department’s “conservative hiring practices” to faculty members’ ties with business firms. “The fact that the Department sells its services to American business firms biases its administrative decisions,” Galbraith said.

Despite the committee’s negative findings, Otto Eckstein, professor of Economics and president of Data Resources Inc., a consulting firm, has requested to go on half-time status at Harvard, effective September 1.

Eckstein said yesterday that his decision resulted from Galbraith’s complaints and a new rule prohibiting professors from spending more than one day a week consulting. The rule, previously implicit, was formally written into University law this year.

Galbraith voiced objections to faculty members’ business ties several weeks after the Department’s decision last December not to rehire two radical economists.

At that time, Galbraith told Duesenberry that “business ties necessarily impair the faculty’s ability to impartially judge economists, especially radical economists.”

Galbraith also complained that the Department’s decision last December not to promote William J. Raduchel, assistant professor of Economics, was based on the quality of Raduchel’s work for an outside Resources had little influence on the consulting firm and not on his research and teaching abilities in the Department.

Raduchel is a consultant for Data Resources Inc. and is also a sectionman for Galbraith’s course, Social Science 134, “The Modern Society.”

The committee, composed of Duesenberry, Arthur Smithies, Ropes Professor of Political Economy, and Richard E. Caves, Stone Professor of International Trade, reported last January that Raduchel’s work for Data Resources had no influence on the Department’s decision.

The committee also reported that outside ties do not prejudice the Department’s hiring decisions and do not interfere with normal administrative functioning.

The committee reported its findings only to Duesenberry, the chairman of the Economics Department. Committee members refused to comment on how they investigated the problem.

Duesenberry attributed Galbraith’s objections to the Department’s decision not to promote Raduchel. “Galbraith is annoyed because his boy didn’t get promoted,” he said.

Raduchel told The Crimson last month that he was satisfied with the Department’s decision not to promote him. He said that the decision had “nothing to do with my connection to Data Resources, and was based on my academic work.”

Eckstein agreed with Duesenberry’s conclusion that Raduchel’s work at Data Resources had little influence on the Department’s decision.

Explaining his own position at Data Resources Inc. Eckstein said that his case is no different than that of other faculty members who do consulting work.

Currently, at least three senior faculty members and one junior faculty members do consulting work at Data Resources.

Eckstein described consulting work an inevitable product of Harvard’s hiring policies. “Harvard naturally attracts people who get involved in the outside world,” he explained.

He said that he has a “clear conscience” about the work he is doing at Harvard.

_____________________________

Galbraith to Chairman Duesenberry:

Gstaad, Switzerland
March 27, 1973

Professor James S. Duesenberry
Littauer M-8

Dear Jim:

Herewith some good-humored thoughts on our final talk the other day about our corporate affiliates. As you request, I will now leave the problem to the President, Steiner and whomever.

  1. Although both you and Henry Rosovsky had earlier expressed discomfort about our corporation and some action now seems in prospect, you say I’m severely viewed for raising the issue. Isn’t this a little hard? The important thing, I suggest, is to get things right. However, although given my sensitive soul it has been difficult, I have steeled myself over the years to the idea of not being universally loved.
  2. You say that the bias from combining business entrepreneurship with professorial activities in the eye of some of our colleagues is not greater than that deriving from my (or Marc Roberts’) support of George McGovern. I somehow doubt that the faculty would agree. There is indication of difference, I think, in the way one reacts. I do not find myself shrinking especially from identification even with anything now so widely condemned as the McGovern campaign. I detect a certain desire to avoid public discussion of our corporations.
  3. In keeping with the desire for reticence, I told Ed Mason I wouldn’t talk with the press. The Crimson tells me that you have explained that I raised the issue only out of pique over the non-promotion of Raduchel. Isn’t this a bit one-sided? However, beyond denying any such deeply unworthy motive, I’ll stick to my agreement, always reserving the right of self-defense.
  4. As to my motives, so far as I can judge them, I did feel that Raduchel got judged on his corporate work, while — as Smithies and I both complained — there was no consultation with those who best knew about his teaching. His teaching has been very good. I suggest that we are always in favor of improving undergraduate teaching in principle but not in practice. Also I do not agree that he was unpromotable. He has a lively, resourceful mind and has worked hard for the University and the students. I think him far, far better than the dull technicians we do carry to the top of our nontenured ranks, possibly even beyond.
  5. But, as I probe my soul for the purest available motive, it was not Raduchel. I simply think that, when a professor speaks or acts on a promotion, we should know that he is doing it as a professor and not as a businessman.
  6. I had thought that the separation of our business arrangements from the Department management might be a solution, with the proposed withdrawal of voting rights from the aged as a precedent. This, I gather, will not wash, so I subside. As Ed Mason tactfully hints, I’ve had enough lost causes for one year.

I do have one final thought. In accordance with the well-known tendencies of free enterprise at this level, one day one of these corporations is going to go down with a ghastly smash. It will then be found, in its days of desperation or before, to have engaged in some very greasy legal operations. The Department and the University will be held by the papers to have a contingent liability. It will be hard to preserve reticence then. It would have been better to have taken preventative action now.

Conforming to your wish that I restrict communications on this subject, I’m not circulating this letter. But would it trouble you If I added it discreetly to the file in the President’s office? Do let me know.

Yours faithfully,

John Kenneth Galbraith

JKG:mjh

Source: John F. Kennedy Presidential Library. John Kenneth Galbraith Personal Papers. Series 5 Harvard University File, 1949-1990. Box 526. Folder “Harvard Dept. of Economics. Discussion of appointments, outside interests and reorganization, 1972-1973 (1 of 2)”.

Image Sources: John Kenneth Galbraith (1978), Harvard University Archives; Otto Eckstein (April 1969), Harvard University Archives; Martin Feldstein (ca. 1974), Newton Free Library, Digital Commonwealth, Massachusetts Collections Online; Dale Jorgenson. (1968). John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation.

Categories
Chicago Funny Business Harvard M.I.T. Princeton

M.I.T. Faculty Skit, Playing Monopoly at Lunch, 1986

 

It has been a while since I have added an artifact to the MIT economics skits wing of the Funny Business Archives here at Economics in the Rear-view Mirror. Apparently the following script was a, if not the sole, late-20th century MIT faculty skit not written by Robert Solow. I can believe that. In any event, today’s post is further grist to the mill for social historians of economics.

Again a grateful tip of the hat to Roger Backhouse is in order.

__________________

1986 FACULTY SKIT

(Skit opens with Dornbusch, Fischer, Diamond, Eckaus and McFadden seated around MONOPOLY board. Farber is standing alongside, watching the game. Fisher and Hausman are in the wings to make walk-on appearances).

ANNOUNCER: One of the most important unwritten rules in the Economics Department is that no one but Bob Solow writes the skit. This year, Bob reportedly outdid himself and wrote a sitcom in which Bob Lucas is struck by a blinding light while driving to work and transformed into a neo-Keynesian. The skit, titled “I’m OK, You’re OK,” follows Lucas’ attempts to explain why he is estimating Phillips curves to Lars Hansen and Tom Sargent.

Unfortunately, Bob is unable to be with us tonight, since he is delivering the presidential address to the Eastern Economic Association in Philadelphia. When we opened the envelope marked “SKIT” which Bob left for us, we were surprised to discover only a copy of his presidential address. We suspect he had a somewhat bigger surprise when he opened his envelope in Philadelphia. [Address published as “What is a Nice Girl Like You Doing in a Place Like This? Macroeconomics after Fifty YearsEastern Economic Journal, July-September 1986]

We were of course scared skitless when we realized our predicament, and we were tempted to re-run some of the great Solow skits of the past. There was the 1974 Watergate Skit, in which Paul Colson Joskow testifies to Senator Sam Peltzman that he would run over his grandmother to get a t-statistic above two. There was the 1978 Star Wars skit, in which Milton Vader and his minions capture the wookie Jerrybaca and hold him captive in the Chicago Money Workshop. And in the incredible 1973 MASH skit, Hawkeye Hall and Trapper Jerry Hausman find Radar Diamond and Hot Lips Friedlaender cavorting in the Chairman’s office. (If that doesn’t give Solow Rational expectations, what does?)

We guessed that you had all seen these re-runs on late-nite channel 56, however, and therefore decided to try something new and provide a partial answer to the age-old question: What Really Goes On in the Freeman Room at Lunchtime on Wednesdays? We now invite you to join us for a brief look at one of these infamous gatherings…

 

MCFADDEN: (Rolling dice). “Who owns Oriental Avenue?”

DORNBUSCH: Me. That’s six dollars.

FISCHER: My turn? (Rolls dice). Damn. Inflation tax again; Here’s ten percent of my cash balances. I passed go, didn’t I?

DIAMOND: Uh huh. Here’s $186 dollars.

FISCHER: I should get $200.

DIAMOND: Not since Gramm-Rudman. Everything’s reduced seven percent across the board.

DORNBUSCH: My turn. (Rolling dice). Four. (Reaches over and moves marker).

ECKAUS: No way, Rudi—you just moved six places. No overshooting in this game. (Hands Dornbusch Chance card)

DORNBUSCH: Ah. Go directly to Brazil. Do not return until the day classes start.

HAUSMAN: (Walking in from side of stage) How come you guys are playing MONOPOLY? I thought you usually played RISK…

DIAMOND: Oliver [Hart] took that game home. You know, his contract calls for RISK-sharing…

HAUSMAN: Can you believe the graduate students scheduled the skit party for the Friday before income taxes are due? The only people who’ll come are graduate students and people like theorists who file 1040 EZ’s. (walks off)

(FISHER walks in)

DIAMOND: (Rolling dice). My turn. Oriental again. Six more dollars for Dornbusch.

FISCHER: That’s a pretty profitable property, Rudi.

FISHER: How many times do I have to say it! You can’t possibly tell that from accounting numbers! (Pause). Why don’t we ever play fun games, like Consultant?

ECKAUS: I hear Jorgensen and Griliches play that all the time up at Harvard. Maybe you should give them a call.

FISHER: They’re never around.

DIAMOND: Of course not, Frank—that’s how you play consultant.

(FISHER exits.)

FARBER: Speaking of Harvard, how are we doing on graduate recruitment this year? I heard there was some Princeton scandal.

DIAMOND: The AEA put them on probation for recruiting violations. People could look the other way when they offered prospective students money and cars, but this year Joe Stiglitz promised to write a joint paper with all entering students.

FARBER: They’re really giving out cars?

DIAMOND: Sure. Yugo’s.

FARBER: All I got was a motorcycle…

MCFADDEN: Harvard and Princeton have been dumping all over us. Every prospective student has heard that Jerry Hausman cashed in his Frequent Flyer miles for a 727. And some even know that Marty Weitzman has a Harvard offer.

FISCHER: Well, that offer was certainly no surprise. The Harvard deans read THE SHARE ECONOMY and decided they should hire more workers.

DIAMOND: Still, we’re getting the best students. This morning I signed a Yale undergrad by offering him Solow’s office. I figured Bob can share E52-390 with Krugman, Eckaus, and Farber next year. But what happens when we run out of river-view offices?

FARBER: How’s Harvard doing on recruiting?

ECKAUS: Not too well. They’re on a big kick to look relevant. Mas-Collel’s going nuts—Dean Spence has a new rule that any agent in a theoretical model has to have a proper name. Andreu’s having real problems with his continuum papers…

MCFADDEN: I hear the Kennedy School’s helping their visibility. Have you heard about the new Meese Distinguished Service Medal?

DIAMOND: No. Who’s getting them?

MCFADDEN: Sammy Stewart for Distinguished Relief Pitching,
Martin Feldstein for Distinguished Empirical Work,
Larry Summers for Distinguished Dress,
NASA for distinction in Travel Safety,
Bob Lucas and Bob Barro for Distinguished Plausible Assumptions,
Ferdinand Marcos for Distinguished Contributions to Charity,
and John Kenneth Galbraith for Distinguished Use of Mathematics.

DORNBUSCH: Harvard’s visibility campaign’s paying off. Just last week one of their junior guys hit the cover of PEOPLE magazine with a paper about marriage rates among movie stars.

FISCHER: You read PEOPLE?

FARBER: The National Enquirer had a story about a Harvard student who claimed to have a picture of Jeff Sachs in Littauer. Just like the old days with Howard Hughes…

DORNBUSCH: Perhaps we should return to the game.

(MODIGLIANI walks on).

DIAMOND: My turn again? (Rolls dice and moves piece). Community Chest. (Looking at card) You are elected department head. Lose three turns.

(Someone walks up and hands DIAMOND a telephone message. He stands up.)

DIAMOND: I nearly forgot. I’m scheduled to join Mike Weisbach who is taking a prospective student windsurfing this afternoon. Figured it was the least I could do to convince him we were as laid back as Stanford. Franco—do you want to take my place?

MODIGLIANI: (Sitting down in Diamond’s place) So, what are the new developments on the Monopoly front? [Famous Modigliani paper “New Developments on the Oligopoly Front,” JPE, June 1958] (Pause) Now, which of these pieces is Peter’s?

MCFADDEN: The coconut. [Reference here to Diamond’s coconut model of a search economy.]

MODIGLIANI: My turn now?

FISCHER: No Franco—but go ahead. [presumably a reference to Modigliani’s propensity to talk, and talk, and talk.]

MODIGLIANI: (Rolls dice and moves marker). Chance. (McFadden hands him a card). What is this? You have won second prize in a Beauty Contest, Collect $10? This is NOT POSSIBLE. This year I win only FIRST PRIZES [reference to 1985 Nobel Prize for Economics].

DORNBUSCH: (To audience) Wait till he gets the bequest card… [cf. the JEP Spring 1988 paper by Modigliani that surveys the bequest motive]

FISCHER: Franco, I have a deal for you. I’ll trade you Mediterranean and the Water Works for North Carolina and an agreement that you never charge me rent on either property. If you renege, I’ll order Chinese food.

MODIGLIANI: No deal. But what’s this about Chinese food?

FISCHER: It’s a new thing I learned from Garth [Soloner]—it makes the deal sub-gum perfect.

MCFADDEN: My turn. (Rolls and draws a Chance card). My favorite card: Advance Token to the Railroad with the Highest Logit Probability Value. Let me see which one that is… (pulls out a calculator)

FISCHER: While we’re waiting for Dan to converge, how did we do in junior hiring? Did we get that Princeton theorist?

ECKAUS: No dice. All the Princeton guys told him not to come.

DORNBUSCH: Why?

ECKAUS: They said “Go to Yale, go directly to Yale.”

MODIGLIANI: What about senior appointments?

FARBER: Ask Peter [Temin]. He’s on the Search Committee.

MCFADDEN: (Looking up from calculator). I’m having convergence problems. Maybe we should postpone the game for a few minutes while I run down to the PRIME.

[the image of the last page at my disposal is very blurred, fortunately it is only the wrap-up by the announcer]

ANNOUNCER: As you all know, NOTHING takes a few minutes on the PRIME. So until next year, when the [?] [?] Solow who accompanied Stan, 3PO and R2D2 to [?] the [?] [?] from Chicago returns to produce another skit. Good night.

 

Source: Duke University, David M. Rubenstein Rare Book and Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Papers of Robert M. Solow, Box 83.

Categories
Funny Business Harvard

Harvard. ‘Twas a Night in the Sixties. Poem by Martin Feldstein, 1980

 

‘Tis the Season to be Jolly so it is time to share this 39-year old economics parody composed, and one imagines performed, by Harvard Professor, Reagan economics adviser, and long-time president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Martin Feldstein (1939-2019).

I have inserted first or last names between square brackets for the benefit of any non-economist or young economist (Boomer says, “You’re Welcome”) that has somehow landed on this page. 

__________________

‘Twas a Night in the Sixties
by Martin Feldstein

Cambridge, Massachusetts
December 1980

‘Twas a night in the sixties
And all through the land
Unemployment was falling
Inflation at hand.

The stock market was rising,
Without any care,
In hopes a Dow thousand
Soon would be there.

The Keynesians were snuggled
Secure in their Chairs,
While visions of multipliers
Allayed all their cares.

Paul [Samuelson] with his textbook
And Art [Okun] with his gap
Had settled their brains
For a long postwar nap.

When out in the land
There arose such a clatter,
A voice that was crying
That money could matter.

Away from their desks
They flew in a flash
To see who was claiming
Such power for cash.

They looked at their models
With equations precise,
That gave semblance of proof
To conclusions so nice.

When what to their wondering
Eyes should appear
But a miniature sleigh
With eight tiny reindeer

With a little old driver
Who was having such fun
They knew in a moment
It must be Milton [Friedman]

More numerous than eagles
His supporters they came
And he whistled and shouted
And called them by name.

First John [sic, Jean-Baptiste] Say and then [David] Hume
Then [Alfred] Marshall and [John Stuart] Mill,
Now [Karl] Brunner and [Alan] Meltzer
And Anna [Schwartz] and Phil [Cagan].

From the U. of Chicago
To Minneapolis-St. Paul
Then dash away! Dash away!
Dash away all!

As economic theories with which economists play
When they meet with an obstacle
Assume it away,

So off to the journals,
Their papers they flew,
With monetarist theorems,
Rational expectations too.

And even in Cambridge
Was heard the new truth,
The theorems and lemmas
Of each little proof.

The Keynesian thinkers
Were spinning around
When onto the scene,
Milton came with a bound.

He was dressed all in gold
From his head to his foot
And his ideas were polished
And ready to put.

“Velocity’s stable,
M1 and M2,
Which shows what the Fed
Shouldn’t be trying to do.”

“That curve by Phillips
It really is straight
And the cost of funds
Is the real interest rate.”

He wrote many a word,
And with evidence too.
At the NBER
His volumes they grew.

His ideas how simple.
He puts them so well.
It would be no wonder
When he got his Nobel.

A wink of his eye
And a nod of his head
Soon gave Keynesians to know
They had something to dread.

Then turning his talents
To the writing of prose
TV and best seller
He did with wife Rose.

Then he sprang to his sleigh
To his team gave a whistle
And away they all flew
Like the down of a thistle.

But I heard him exclaim
As he drove out of sight,
“Keep freedom for all,
and keep money tight.”

Source: Ancient, analogue copy found in Irwin Collier’s personal papers.

Image Source: Faculty portrait of Martin Feldstein in 1997 in The Harvard Gazette, June 13, 2019.

Categories
Funny Business M.I.T.

M.I.T. Robert Solow’s last skit “Dr. Rudi Tells You How”, late 1980s

 

 

The following skit by Robert Solow has been transcribed from his original handwritten text in the Economists Papers Archive at Duke University and shared with Economics in the Rear-View Mirror by Roger Backhouse.

It is identified in its upper-right hand corner on the first page as “Solow’s Last Skit”. The manuscript bears no date, but there are two clues that point to its having been written sometime in the late 1980’s.

  • The short-lived currency unit of Argentina, the Austral [b. June 15, 1985; d. December 31, 1991], is mentioned at the end of the skit.
  • The late 1980s also marked the heyday of the petite radio and television therapist, Dr. Ruth Westheimer, who spoke with a charming German accent about issues surrounding sexual health. One supposes nothing could have been more or less natural than imagining Rudiger Dornbusch, born in Krefeld, Germany, to be the Dr. Rudi dispensing professional advice to fellow economists.

Robert Solow has received much ribbing for the following remark from his 1966 “Comments.” Guidelines: Informal Controls and the Market Place, eds. George P. Shultz and Robert Z. Aliber. Chicago: University of Chicago, pp. 62-66.

“…everything reminds Milton [Friedman] of the money supply. Well, everything reminds me of sex, but I try to keep it out of my papers”.

Now read the text below and you will see that Robert Solow was definitely no prude when it came to joking about economists (still clearly “A Man’s World”):

  • “Ed Presspott”: time inconsistency as analogue to hypoactive sexual desire disorder (HSDD);
  • “Dr. Rudi”: not consistently overshooting (I apologize if you cannot unread this);
  • “Bob Barrell”: completely predictable routine, needing to spice up his act;
  • “Tom Corporal”: obsessed with finding the right technique;
  • “Larry Winters” as a compulsively promiscuous co-author.

From a comment left (15 Feb 2022) at Tyler Cowen’s Assorted Links (includes this post).

“I attended that skit party! Stan Fischer played Bob Barrel, and Jeff Wooldridge played Tom Corporal.”

_______________________

Solow’s Last Skit

Doctor Rudi Tells You How

(A) We present, in person, the world-famous author of the best-selling book “How to Repudiate Your Debts and Blame the Lender.” Dr. Rudi has been telling people how to run their—NO, NOT WHAT YOU EXPECTED—how to run their professional lives ever since he discovered that they would pay to listen. For a happy, uninhibited professional life, for fun-filled trips to Rio, for the pleasure of striking terror into the hearts of international bankers and making them pay, just listen to Dr. Rudi. Remember that Dr. Rudi swings like a pendulum do. Now for our first seeker after help with his professional life. Please state your name.

(P) [Edward C. Prescott] I’m Ed Presspott.

(R) And what is your problem, Mr. Presspott. Don’t be shy. Dr. Rudi has heard everything. Nothing shocks him.

(P) I feel so ashamed. I can barely bring myself to look in the mirror.

(R) Ah, you look in the mirror. The mirror is in the ceiling, no doubt?

(P) No, my regular shaving mirror, in the medicine cabinet.

(R) In the medicine cabinet? That’s a brand new one. Even Dr. Rudi has never heard of that before. There is no end to perversion. How does he get that mirror off his ceiling and into the medicine cabinet? Must ask [Stanley Fischer] Dr. Stan. Well, then, Mr. Presspott, why are you ashamed to look into the mirror—chuckle, chuckle,–that you keep in the medicine cabinet?

(P) I’m dynamically inconsistent. I didn’t think I could bring myself to say it. You’re wonderful, Dr. Rudi. Yes, let’s face it, I’m dynamically inconsistent.

(R) All the time?

(P) Yes. No. Yes. No. A lot, anyway. It just comes over me.

(R) You better tell me about it. Everything. Hold nothing back.

(P) Take last week. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday were just routine. Of course my tastes and technology changed a couple of times, the way they always do. I adjusted, the way I always do. Kept the old markets cleared, the old prices flexible. Told everyone I was going to the movies on Thursday. Seemed like the best thing to do. Really did. Often go to the movies on Thursday. I really do. I really do. I really do. No, I don’t. I’ve got to tell someone, Dr. Rudi. I don’t go to the movies on Thursday. I don’t really go to the movies. Hardly ever. Somehow on Thursday I don’t feel like going to the movies. On Monday it seemed like the best thing to do. So I told everyone I would. But most Thursdays, I don’t know, it just comes over me that going to the movies might not be the best thing to do after all. Sometimes I make myself go, but most of the time I don’t. I know it’s wrong, but I don’t go. I’ve never told this to anyone before, Dr. Rudi, not even to [Finn Kydland] Kid Finland.

(R) So when you don’t go to the movies on Thursday, what do you do? I have to know if I’m going to help you.

(P) I just sit there in a sweat, even though it’s Minneapolis at 200° below zero. I just sit there in a sweat and worry about what the other people are thinking.

(R) Maybe they don’t know.

(P) Of course they know. It’s common knowledge. I can practically hear them whispering that old Presspot has lost his dynamic consistency. And they laugh, they laugh. I even tried telling them on Monday that I wouldn’t go to the movies on Thursday. But you know how it is, on Monday morning, with all that market clearing ahead of me, I really feel like going to the movies on Thursday. How do I know what I’ll feel like on Thursday? Help me, Dr. Rudi, help me.

(R) You just have to stop feeling guilty, Pressport. Lost of people are dynamically inconsistent. Even Dr. Rudi. Do you think I overshoot every time? Of course not. Sometimes I just can’t be bothered to overshoot. Dynamic consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds as dear Ralph Waldo Mundell used to say. No guilt, Presspott. No guilt. If it feels good, it feels good. Render unto Thursday what is Thursdays, as Jesus Mundell used to say. No guilt.

(P) Thank you, Dr. Rudi, thank you. I feel better already.

(R) And one more thing, Presspott.

(P) Yes, Dr. Rudi?

(R) Get that mirror out of the medicine cabinet and back on the ceiling where it belongs. Next client, please.

(A) You, sir, you look troubled. What is your name?

(B) [Robert Barro] Barrel, Bob Barrel, and I am sorely troubled.

(A) Tell it to Dr. Rudi, Barrel. You’re as good as cured.

(R) Let it hang out, Barrel. Well, maybe it would be better if you just told me about your problem.

(B) It’s simple. Dr. Rudi. Everything I do is anticipated. I am so predictable that everything I do is anticipated by everyone. Well, you know what happens.

(R) What happens?

(B) Nothing. That’s the problem of course. Nothing real happens. I’m death[?] on the price level, of course, but there’s no fun in that. Anyone can screw up the price level. I want to do something real.

(R) Sneak up on them. Barrel. Surprise them.

(B) I’ve tried. I wait until the last minute and then I try something completely out of character. Sometimes I smile, or make a joke. But nothing real happens. Nominal, nominal, nominal. So then I ask people on the street: how come nothing real happened? Didn’t I do something surprising? And they all say the same thing: We figured you would try to do something unanticipated, so we were waiting. You’re lucky you even have a nominal effect, Barrel. You’re predictable, Barrel, predictable. Before I can even say I resent that, they say you resent that. It’s obscene.

(R) No, it’s not obscene, Barrel. Nothing is obscene. Everything is OK. It’s OK to be predictable. It’s OK to be boring. It’s OK to be sober. Sometimes even the great Mundell is…boring. Maybe your grandchildren will be unpredictable.

(B, R together)  B: I’ve already taken them fully into account.
R: You’ve already taken them fully into account.

(B) See what I mean. Am I doomed to leave no real effects behind me?

(R) Yes (Thank God). You must learn not to care. Think nominal. Nominal is beautiful. Real is ugly. Real is Keynesian.

(B, R together)  There are no Keynesians.

(R) Stick with the price level, my boy, and the price level will stick with you. And one more thing—

(B) Yes, Dr. Rudi?

(R) No more boring predictable papers, please. Next sufferer.

(A) Here is a lost-looking soul. What is your name, sir, and are you seeking advice from Dr. Rudi?

(C) [Thomas Sargent] Corporal is my name, Tom Corporal. Science is my game. But yes, I have a bit of a problem. I’m sure there’s a theorem somewhere that will take care of it. If worst comes to worst we can always change the problem.

(R) Tell Dr. Rudi about it.

(C) Well, I might as well. I told you that science is my game. Control theory. Stochastic processes. See a sum of squares, minimize it.

(R) Small is beautiful as good old Kurt[?] Mundell used to say.

(C) Never heard of him, but if he was a minimizer he was OK.

(R) So what is the problem?

(C) Learn a new technique every month.

(R) Every month! What do you need me for?

(C) It’s my life. I perfect my technique. I am obsessed with doing it right, exactly right. I bring all my technique to bear on it, and I find I can’t do it at all.

(R) Well, this sounds more like my kind of problem.  Not at all, eh?

(C) Oh I turn out the papers and the books all right. But nobody believes any of it. Neither do I. I try to work up some conviction.

(R) Conviction is better than guilt, as old Judge Mundell used to say. You gotta have conviction.

(C) Sometimes I can’t even work up a simple declarative sentence. But at least I’m doing it right.

(R) I thought you weren’t doing it at all.

(C) Maybe it’s the same thing. Anyway, I have another math book at home and I bet the key to the universe is in it somewhere. If I could only find a well-posed question I’m sure I could find a well-posed answer.

(R) My boy, listen to Dr. Rudi. One or two techniques is all you need. The great Mundell got by with no technique at all. Solow with even less.

(C) You mean it’s done with mirrors?

(R) On the ceiling, yes.

(C) Angle of incidence equals angle of reflection, eh.

(R) Any angle you like, Tom baby. Forget the technique and start to believe. That will get their attention. And then…

(C) And what then, Dr. Rudi?

(R) Tell them to repudiate their debts and blame the lenders.

(C) I believe, Dr. Rudi, I believe.

(R) But stay out of Brazil and Argentina, that’s my territory.

(C) It’s the Austro-Hungarian Empire for me. Wait till I tell [Neil Wallace] Neil.

(R) Next sinner, please.

(A) Here is a distinguished looking gentleman. Dr. Rudi rarely sees patients who seem so self-possessed yet so youthful. Sir, it is hard to believe that you have any problem at all, let alone the sort of thing that Dr. Rudi could help you with. What is your name, Sir?

(W) [Larry Summers] Larry Winters, but don’t ask me to spell it. Spelling is not my thing.

(A) Ah you don’t have to spell it. Everyone knows Larry Winters. But surely you don’t have any problems. When could you squeeze them in?

(W) Well, I’d rather talk to Dr. Rudi.

(R) Come in, tell me in complete confidence what brings you here. No one will know but our world-wide audience.

(W) Dr. Rudi, to tell you the truth I can’t stop writing. Every day I write like one possessed. Since January 1 I have written 89 articles and that doesn’t count National Bureau Working Papers. I don’t even have time to think.

(R) Ah, so you have discovered the Fundamental Secret?

(W) You mean that you don’t have to think in order to write?

(R) So wise, so young!

(W) I learned it from my teachers.

(R) Those who can, do. Those who can’t, teach.

(W) Those who can’t teach, teach economics.

(R) You know that too?

(W) I learned it from my teachers.

(R) So you can’t stop writing. Compulsive promiscuity. As the late Dr. Sigmund Mundell said, the sins of the children are visited upon the fathers. Perhaps it was not Mundell. Perhaps it is not even true. Have you tried to understand this compulsion? The famous Bishop Mundell used to say that when he felt the impulse to write he would lie down until it went away.

(W) When I lie down I just keep writing.

(R) We must locate the source of this compulsion. Think.

(W) No time.

(R) What do your friends say about this? Sometimes they have insights denied to oneself.

(W) Some of them think I’m trying to catch up with [Martin Feldstein] Feldstein. Some of them think I’m trying to stay ahead of [N. Gregory Mankiw] Mankiw.

(R) You see—those are both difficult but sound objectives. I myself try mostly to emulate the great Gustave Mundell who always wrote one chapter before and another chapter after.

(W) Before and after what?

(R) What a pleasant surprise for you when you find out.

(W) Must go. I have three NBER Working Papers to finish today.

(R) But if we talked some more, I might find a way to cure you of this obsession.

(W) Cure? I don’t want to be cured. I like writing.

(R) But then why did you come to see Dr. Rudi?

(W) I thought we might get a joint paper out of it.

(A) And so we come to the end of another session with Dr. Rudi. If you have a question you would like to put to Dr. Rudi, write it down and send it to this station together with 5 billion Austral [Argentinian currency unit between June 15, 1985 and December 31, 1991], or better yet a box top, any box top. Thank you for your support.

 

Source:  Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archive. Papers of Robert M. Solow. Box 83.

Image Sources:  Robert Solow from the Library of Economics and Liberty; Rudiger Dornbusch from FAZ, April 12, 2014; Dr. Ruth Westheimer from the Encyclopedia of Jewish Women.

Categories
Funny Business M.I.T.

M.I.T. Faculty skit. Robert Solow as the 2000 year old economist.

 

 

A skit in economics typically involves a humor transplant of some sort. The following script from the faculty contribution to an annual M.I.T. economics skit party (ca.  1979-80 which is when Luis Tiant pitched for the Yankees) took its inspiration from  two greats in American comedy, Carl Reiner & Mel Brooks, who sometimes performed as interviewer and 2,000 year-old man, respectively.

While it is fairly clear that Robert Solow performed and probably wrote the entire skit, the identity of the interviewer still needs to be established. Hint: there is a comment box at the bottom of this post. 

The script comes from a file of such Solovian skits that Roger Backhouse has copied during his archival research and has shared with Economics in the Rear-View Mirror.

_________________

 

Q: You have probably all heard the interviews with the recently discovered 2000-year-old man. We are fortunate to have with us tonight another great find, the 2000-year-old economist, Robert M. Solow. By the way, Dr. Solow, just what does the M stand for?

A: Methuselah, dummy.

Q: Dr. Solow has seen so many skit parties in his life, that he was not very happy about appearing at this one. Do you remember the first skit party you ever went to?

A: No. Skit parties are like hangovers – best thing to do is forget ’em and swear never to do it again. I do have a hazy recollection of an early skit party, I think it was what the one where I first heard the joke about bordered determinants…

Q: What is the joke about border determinants?

A: I don’t know, but they sure laugh[ed] their fool heads off.

Q: Any other recollections about that skit party?

A: Well, you could hear them building pyramids in the background, I remember, and there was this Sphinx-like object, looked a lot like Dick Eckaus… You don’t suppose that, even then???? Nah, forget it.

Q: Turning to more serious issues, what is the biggest change in economics since the old days?

A: Mechanization, by cracky. First the electric typewriter, then the computer, then the Xerox machine [handwritten insert: but not fast enough for (3 or 4 illegible words)]. Nowadays people write papers at the rate they used to wipe their… glasses. I believe Feldstein has solved the problem of hooking the typewriter directly to the Xerox machine, and the whole paper is reproduced without being touched by human hands. There is even a rumor that he has a secret way of getting the paper written without human intervention…

Q: Come come, Dr. Solow, you don’t believe that.

A: Well, have you looked at any of Feldstein’s recent papers? Now in the good old days, stand-up roll-top desks, quill pens, the main-frame abacus, a man thought twice before he wrote a paper. At least he thought once. If only old Tom were here.

Q: Tom who?

A: Tom Gresham. You know: bad working papers drive out good. Not to mention Dave Hume, the inventor of the quantity theory of working papers. As Milton used to say: any way you slice it, it’s still baloney.

Q: Is that Milton Friedman?

A: No, Milton Horowitz, the inventor of the pastrami sandwich. I believe he appears in a footnote in Joskow’s classic mustard-stained work on the subject.

Q: Let’s come to your recent impressions. What do you see as the most important recent development in economics?

A: That’s easy – the increase in the mandatory retirement age to 70. Of course it’s got a long way to go before it does me any good, but I underestimate the DRI Mandatory Retirement Age Monitor estimates the retirement age to be rising at 1.73 years per year, so time is on my side.

Q: Apart from its effects on you personally, why do you think this is an important development?

A: It saves a lot of time at department meetings never to have to make a tenure appointment again. And you know what department meetings are like – even worse than skit parties.

Q: How do you think the change will affect students?

A: They’ll love it. Courses will be the same year after year. Reading lists will never change. Textbooks will go on and on and on. Can you imagine the 200th edition of Dornbusch and Fischer? I hope it’s printed on better paper than the low-grade papyrus of the first edition… I do wonder about Eckaus and that Sphinx…… Exams will be the same year after year. Students hate change. Look at what happened when you fellows tried to change 14.121 this year.

Q: Turning to economic theory, what has been the most important development you have witnessed in the last 2000 years?

A: The two-dimensional diagram.

Q: Be serious.

A: I am serious. Can you imagine Bhagwati, the Picasso of the Production Possibility Locus, trying to fit all those curves in a one-dimensional diagram, which was all we had in the old days? There wasn’t hardly room for anything besides the axis.

Q: Come, come. Bhagwati would find a solution for that little difficulty. Who needs an axis?

A: Maybe so, but can you imagine four-color one-dimensional diagrams? How could we have expensive textbooks without four-color diagrams? How could we have expensive professors without expensive textbooks? How could……

Q: OK, OK. What is the second most important development in economic theory in your lifetime?

A: The subscript.

Q: Don’t you know the difference between trivia and serious economic theory?

A: Sure. Trivia are worth remembering, but serious economics is OK to forget.

Q: Maybe we better stick to trivia…

A: I was just kidding. I really know the answer. There is no difference between trivia and serious economic theory.

Q: Tell us about the most interesting experience you ever heard of an economist having?

A: Easy. Happened to an agricultural economist I knew, feller named Samuelson, farm boy from Gary, Indiana. He was digging on the farm one day, checking out the law of diminishing returns, and he found a potato growing with a nickel in it. Marvelous thing. Folks came from miles away to see a potato with a nickel in it. Old Samuelson frittered away the rest of his life looking for another potato with the nickel in it. Never could find one. He did find a couple with three cents in them, but somehow it wasn’t the same. Never accomplished another thing, old Samuelson. Wonder whatever became of him? He’d be 2009, I reckon. By the way, whatever became of that other farmer, Weitzman?

Q: You mean Chaim Weitzman, the founding father of Israel? His last words were: you don’t have to convince me, Professor [Frank] Fisher, I’m Jewish too.

A: No, I mean Marty Weitzman, old quick and dirty, the lion of Levittown.

Q: Why do you ask?

A: Reminds me of the fellow I used to know, a Secretary of the Treasury named Hamilton……

Q: Reminds you of who? Oh, I get it, they both got killed in the dual.

A: Watch out, Buster – the agreement was that I tell the jokes and you prove the theorems.

Q: All right. Let’s get away from personalities. What do you think of recent macro theories?

A: Not much.

Q: What about rational expectations?

A: If there were any truth in that, it would have been thought up long ago.

Q: Not necessarily. The old-timers could have thought that someone would think of it, without thinking of it themselves.

A: That’s true, but the old-timers were too sensible to think that anyone would think a thought like that.

Q: How about the quantity theory?

A: Ingenious.

Q: Really?

A: Imagine saying that velocity is so stable that only money matters, and so unstable that no use can be made of the theory, and imagine getting away with both statements.

Q: But what is macroeconomics left with then?

A: Well, the old Ioto-Sigma Lamba-Mu [Greek for “IS-LM”] curves were good enough for Aristotle, it’s good enough for me.

Q: Would you care to comment on the theory of built-in stabilizers?

A: If you’re not going to be serious, we might as well go watch a ballgame. I understand Louis Tiant, the 2000-year-old pitcher is going for the Yankees.

Q: Use your 2000-year-old imagination. I’ll give you an example of built-in stabilization – Social Security.

A: How so?

Q: The less likely it is that anyone will ever be able to collect benefits, the likelier it becomes that they make even more money consulting on Social Security. Take [Peter] Diamond, for example.

A: You take Diamond.

Q: No thanks. Imagine a man leaving a perfectly good career in public finance to go into law and economics and make a hash out of both fields.

A: Stick to the straight-man lines, please.

[Handwritten insert begins here]

Q: What do you think of the proliferation of journals?

A: I think it is terrific. Of course it has been going on for a long time – ever since BJEA, the Babylonian Journal of Economic Analysis was challenged by the SEJ, the Sumerian Economic Journal.
What I particularly like is the increased specialization. Like JHR, the Journal of Human Regressions and JME, the Journal of Mathematical Existence.

Q: The Journal of Mathematical Existence – isn’t that the one that started with the famous 2-line proof: I count, therefore I am?

A: Yes and was followed by a 47 page proof that without continuity existence was still generic.
I also like this trend toward paired journals.

Q: Paired journals?

A: Yes, like the two Harvard journals – one publishes theory without measurement and the other measurement without theory.
And then there’s the 2 JPE’s – the Journal of Public Economics and the Journal of Private Enterprise.

[handwritten insert ends]

Q: What do you see as the greatest danger facing the economics profession?

A: The threatened extension of truth-in-lending legislation to truth-in-teaching. We could have the biggest rash of malpractice suits since Nicky Kaldor retired.

Q: I think you’re onto something there. How foresighted of this department to have hired an expert on malpractice like Marilyn Simon [joined faculty 1977-78 academic year], the world-famous author of Unnecessary Surgery – The View from the Inside.

A: Simon only writes about malpractice – [Jeffrey E.] Harris actually does it, I understand.

Q: You seem to have discovered a lot since you turned up around here. Anything else new on the malpractice front?

A: There’s a rumor that the University of Chicago has had to recall all the degrees issued during the last five model years.

Q: You mean…

A: Right. Defective transmission mechanisms.

Q: Gad. Are there any good defenses against malpractice suits in your long and varied experience?

A: You can hire a mathematician for the faculty.

Q: What good does that do?

A: How the hell would I know? All I can say is that every department seems to be hiring mathematicians these days. It’s got to be for something.

Q: I’m looking for some more tried and true defense.

A: There’s always the Long-and-Variable Lags defense. See the Supreme Court decision in Tobin versus Friedman, in which Friedman successfully argued that first it’s true, second he never said it, and third wait till next year.

Q-: How about the Roy Lopez Defense?

A: You mean P–K4, P-K4; N-KB3, N-QB3; B-QN5, P-QR3?

Q: No, I mean Roy Lopez, the middle line-backer for the Princeton Economics Department – anyone sues for malpractice, he breaks their legs.

A: Sounds good. There’s also the classic defense due to Stanley Fischer, that truth should be indexed. Today’s malpractice is tomorrow’s conventional wisdom.

Q: Speaking of conventional wisdom, have you spoken with Professor Galbraith since your return?

A: No, but I have been reading his latest book: Why Are People Poor?

Q: I’ll bite; why are people poor?

A: Not enough income, according to Galbraith.

Q: Does he have a remedy?

A: Move to Switzerland.

Q: I see.

A: I can’t wait until the news reaches Calcutta.

Q: One last question, to return to the subject with which we started. Do you see any trends in student skits?

A: Longer.

Q: Longer and funnier?

A: Longer.

Q: Any final comment?

A: Let me ask you a question. What do you consider the most remarkable thing in this interview?

Q: That’s easy. We never mentioned IBM.

 

Source:  Duke University. David M. Rubenstein Rare Book & Manuscript Library. Economists’ Papers Archives. Papers of Robert M. Solow. Box 83.

Image Source:  Carl Reiner and Mel Brooks performing the 2000 year old man from NPR KNAU, Arizona public radio article “Could You Talk To a Caveman?” (May 9, 2013) .

Categories
Harvard Principles Problem Sets Suggested Reading Syllabus Undergraduate

Harvard. Principles of Economics, Ec 10. Feldstein and Li, 2000

 

Harvard’s Principles of Economics Course (Ec 10) has been historically taught as weekly lectures by some big faculty gun with parlour tricks pedagogy conducted in smaller sections run by graduate students or even junior faculty, especially in earlier years. The lecture part of the course has evolved to include more guest lecturers for specific fields but the grand-lecture/small recitation section format has been robust and apparently quite popular.

I thought it would only involve a few short dives into the internet archive, The Wayback Machine, to reconstruct the course around the year 2000. This turned out to be an over-optimistic plan. Still, I did not re-surface empty-handed and I provide links below to the materials I was able to salvage from that time. Perhaps some still young economist from the period, can provide us copies of problem sets and teaching-handouts to complete our collection. But hey, econometricians have to worry about measurement error, so historians of economics are really not allowed to complain about missing observations. Just as long as we are doing the best we can with what we’ve got. And what you see is what I got.

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Registrar Identifies Biggest Classes
By Catherine E. Shoichet
Harvard Crimson. October 2, 2000

When it comes to picking Core classes, Harvard students tend to be risk averse.

Preliminary figures show that last fall’s two most popular courses, Social Analysis 10, “Principles of Economics” and Moral Reasoning 22, “Justice,” have taken the top slots again this year.

Social Analysis 10, usually called Ec 10, has 805 students this year, according to preliminary course enrollment numbers released by the Office of the Registrar last week. Justice is a close second with 754.

Judith A. Li, an assistant professor of economics who teaches Ec 10 along with Baker Professor of Economics Martin S. Feldstein ’61, says that despite the class’s large lecture size, most of the basic skills introduced in Ec 10 are taught in smaller sections of about 20 students.

“Our goal for the course is to provide students with a solid and comprehensive foundation in economics,” Li wrote in an e-mail message. “By taking a course like Ec 10, they will be better able to evaluate government policies and political proposals on their own.”

The course is particularly popular among first-year students, many of whom are considering economics as a potential concentration.

“I really enjoy the lectures,” Leah E. Wahba ’04 said. “It’s an honor to be in Marty Feldstein’s class because he has so much extensive experience in the field of economics.” […]

________________

From the Ec 10 home page (2000-2001)

Social Analysis 10

Faculty
Martin Feldstein
Judith Li

Ec 10 is the introductory course for both economics concentrators and those who plan no further work in the field. This course provides an introduction to economic issues and basic economic principles and methods. Fall term focuses on “microeconomics”: supply and demand, labor and financial markets, taxation, and social economic issues of health care, poverty, the environment, and income distribution. Spring term focuses on “macroeconomics”: the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy on inflation, unemployment, interest rates, investment, the exchange rate, and international trade. We study the role of government in the economy, including Social Security, the tax system, and economic change in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and China. By the end of the year, you should be able to use the analysis practiced in the course to form your own judgments about the major economic problems faced by the United States and other countries.

Note: Must be taken as a full course, although in special situations students are permitted to take the second term in a later year. Taught in a mixture of lectures and sections. No calculus is used, and there is no mathematics background requirement. Designed for both potential economics concentrators, and those who plan no further work in the field. The Department of Economics strongly encourages students considering concentration to take this course in their freshman year.

Source: Webpage capture from the Wayback Machine.

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Course Syllabi (.pdf files)

Spring 2000, Fall 2000/01

Syllabus Spring 1999-2000 (Macroeconomics)

Syllabus Fall 2000-2001 (Microeconomics)

Course Syllabi (.html files)

Syllabus Spring 1996-1997 (Macroeconomics)

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Miscellaneous Course Materials

Spring 1997 (Macroeconomics)

Unit Test Program explained

 

Spring 2000 (Macroeconomics)

Introductory Lecture for Macroeconomics and Growth by Martin Feldstein (Feb.2, 2000)

Future of Social Security by Martin Feldstein by Martin Feldstein (Feb. 9, 2000)

Problem Set 3, Answers (March 14, 2000)

Spring 2001 (Macroeconomics)

July 23, 2001 capture of Social Analysis 10 (Ec 10) homepage

[October 4, 2002 FAQ about unit tests in Ec 10]

Unit 1, Economic Growth: Test 1A solutions

Unit 2, Financial Markets: Test 2A questions

Unit 2, Financial Markets: Test 2A solutions

Unit 2, Financial Markets: Test 2B questions

Unit 2, Financial Markets: Test 2B solutions

Unit 3, Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand:  Test A questions

Unit 4, Monetary Policy: Test 1A questions

Unit 4, Monetary Policy: Test 1A solutions

Unit 4, Monetary Policy: Test 1B solutions

Unit 5, Fiscal Policy: Test 1A  questions

Unit 5, Fiscal Policy: Test 1A solutions

Unit 5, Fiscal Policy: Test 1B solutions

 

Fall Semester 2002 (Microeconomics)

From the Fall 2002/03 home page

Social Analysis 10
Principles of Economics
Martin Feldstein

Introduction to economic issues and basic economic principles and methods. Fall term focuses on supply and demand, labor and financial markets, taxation, and social economic issues of health care, poverty, the environment, and income distribution. Spring term focuses on the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy on inflation, unemployment, interest rates, investment, the exchange rate, and international trade. Studies role of government in the economy, including Social Security, the tax system, and economic change in Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Asia. Covers international trade and financial markets.
Source: Webpage capture from the Wayback Machine.

Syllabus Fall 2002-2003 (Microeconomics)

Lecture on Unions by Richard B. Freeman (October 28, 2002)

Lecture on the Economics of Health Care by Martin Feldstein (Nov. 20, 2002)

Ec 10 Hourly Exam Questions (December 11, 2002)

 

Spring Semester 2003 (Macroeconomics)

Introductory Lecture by Martin Feldstein (January 29, 2003)

What Should the Fed do Now? lecture by Martin Feldstein (April 18, 2003)

The Dollar and the Trade Deficit lecture by Martin Feldstein (April 21, 2003)

 

Image Source:  “Das Feldstein-Horioka-Paradoxon” in Finanz und Wirtschaft (November 18, 2014).